Even during the coronavirus pandemic, many economists were surprisingly unanimous: the great danger was a phase of low inflation, perhaps even deflation. A few years later, the picture is different. Inflation reached historic highs in many countries, supply chains collapsed and economic developments turned out differently than expected.<\/p>\n
The pandemic was not just a health crisis - it was also a stress test for economic forecasts. This article shows where experts were wrong, why this was the case and what lessons can be learned for future assessments.<\/p>\n
More than three years after the COVID pandemic shook the global economy, experts are still grappling with the question of why so many forecasts turned out to be wrong. The pandemic has led to lost sales in most industries, and entire nations are still struggling to regain their former position. In these uncertain times, economists tried to make predictions about inflation, productivity and growth. Today, many experts note that a strikingly high proportion of predictions were inaccurate. Since 55 % of the population Distrusting economists' forecasts<\/a><\/strong>, serious concerns arise about their methodology and application, revealing the limitations of economic forecasting in times of extreme change. With this in mind, I will analyze and summarize the accuracy of historical forecasts below.<\/p>\n
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