{"id":4801,"date":"2026-02-12T09:34:16","date_gmt":"2026-02-12T09:34:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/?p=4801"},"modified":"2026-05-10T18:17:50","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T18:17:50","slug":"rusya-nato-ve-savas-korkusu-ne-kanitlanabi%cc%87li%cc%87r-ne-kanitlanamaz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/rusya-nato-ve-savas-korkusu-ne-kanitlanabi%cc%87li%cc%87r-ne-kanitlanamaz\/","title":{"rendered":"Rusya, NATO ve sava\u015f korkusu: Neyin kan\u0131tlanabilece\u011fi - neyin kan\u0131tlanamayaca\u011f\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bu makale g\u00fcncel bir d\u00fcrt\u00fcn\u00fcn, \u00f6fkenin ya da partizanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sonucu de\u011fildir. Aksine, uzun bir g\u00f6zlem d\u00f6neminin ve giderek artan bir huzursuzluk hissinin sonucudur. Rusya ile sadece Ukrayna'daki sava\u015ftan bu yana ilgilenmiyorum. \u0130lgim daha da eskiye dayan\u0131yor. Okulda yabanc\u0131 dil olarak Rus\u00e7a \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015ftim ve o zamanlar dil, tarih ve zihniyetle \u00e7ok rahat bir \u015fekilde ilgileniyordum. Bu erken ilgi, y\u0131llar boyunca bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131 s\u00fcrekli de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden oradaki geli\u015fmeleri takip etmemi sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte tam da bu nedenle bug\u00fcn Rusya'ya ve Rusya'n\u0131n s\u00f6zde hedeflerine ili\u015fkin pek \u00e7ok imgenin -\u00e7o\u011fu zaman kaynaks\u0131z, ba\u011flams\u0131z ve hatta bazen herhangi bir i\u00e7 mant\u0131k olmaks\u0131z\u0131n- kamusal alana ne kadar kaba, ne kadar basit ve ne kadar kendinden emin bir \u015fekilde yerle\u015ftirildi\u011fini g\u00f6rmek beni \u015fok ediyor. Bu t\u00fcr anlat\u0131lar\u0131n sadece talk showlarda ya da yorum s\u00fctunlar\u0131nda yer almakla kalmay\u0131p gazeteciler, siyaset\u00e7iler ya da di\u011fer resmi a\u011f\u0131zlar taraf\u0131ndan da neredeyse hi\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeden benimsenmesi \u00f6zellikle rahats\u0131z edici bir hal al\u0131yor. Bir noktada ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak \u015fu soru ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Bu ger\u00e7ekten do\u011fru mu?<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"display-post-types\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">\n\t\t\t#dpt-wrapper-910 { --dpt-text-align: left;--dpt-image-crop: center;--dpt-border-radius: 5px;--dpt-h-gutter: 10px;--dpt-v-gutter: 9px; }\t\t\t<\/style>\n\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">#dpt-wrapper-910 { --dpt-title-font-style:normal;--dpt-title-font-weight:600;--dpt-title-line-height:1.5;--dpt-title-text-decoration:none;--dpt-title-text-transform:none;--dpt-excerpt-font-style:normal;--dpt-excerpt-font-weight:400;--dpt-excerpt-line-height:1.5;--dpt-excerpt-text-decoration:none;--dpt-excerpt-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta1-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta1-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta1-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta1-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta1-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta2-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta2-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta2-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta2-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta2-text-transform:none; }<\/style><div class=\"dpt-main-header\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-main-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dpt-main-title-text\">G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn sosyal sorunlar\u0131<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div id=\"dpt-wrapper-910\" class=\"dpt-wrapper dpt-mag1 land1 dpt-cropped dpt-flex-wrap\" >\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"vicco von b\u00fclow alias loriot &#8211; ordnung, form und der leise widerstand des humors\" data-id=\"4169\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur stories &amp; humor\" data-post_tag=\"deutschland erfahrungen pers\u00f6nlichkeitsentwicklung portrait\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/vicco-von-buelow-takma-adi-loriot-si%cc%87pari%cc%87s-formu-ve-mi%cc%87zahin-sessi%cc%87z-di%cc%87reni%cc%87si%cc%87\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Vicco von B\u00fclow nam-\u0131 di\u011fer Loriot - d\u00fczen, bi\u00e7im ve mizah\u0131n sessiz direni\u015fi<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"747\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Loriot-Titel.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Loriot-Titel.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Loriot-Titel-300x219.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Loriot-Titel-768x560.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Loriot-Titel-16x12.jpg 16w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/vicco-von-buelow-takma-adi-loriot-si%cc%87pari%cc%87s-formu-ve-mi%cc%87zahin-sessi%cc%87z-di%cc%87reni%cc%87si%cc%87\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Vicco von B\u00fclow nam-\u0131 di\u011fer Loriot - d\u00fczen, bi\u00e7im ve mizah\u0131n sessiz direni\u015fi<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"propaganda: geschichte, methoden, moderne formen und wie man sie erkennt\" data-id=\"4229\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur\" data-post_tag=\"denkmodelle energiepolitik europa geopolitik krisen meinungsfreiheit pers\u00f6nlichkeitsentwicklung sicherheitspolitik spieltheorie\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/propaganda-tari%cc%87hi%cc%87-yoentemleri%cc%87-modern-formlar-ve-bunlarin-nasil-taninacagi\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Propaganda: tarihi, y\u00f6ntemleri, modern bi\u00e7imleri ve bunlar\u0131n nas\u0131l tan\u0131naca\u011f\u0131<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Propaganda nedir?\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/propaganda-tari%cc%87hi%cc%87-yoentemleri%cc%87-modern-formlar-ve-bunlarin-nasil-taninacagi\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Propaganda: tarihi, y\u00f6ntemleri, modern bi\u00e7imleri ve bunlar\u0131n nas\u0131l tan\u0131naca\u011f\u0131<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"klimaschutz mit tunnelblick &#8211; elektromobilit\u00e4t, lobbyarbeit und die verdr\u00e4ngten kosten\" data-id=\"4729\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft\" data-post_tag=\"deutschland energiepolitik erfahrungen eu-gesetze europa\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/tuenel-vi%cc%87zyonu-i%cc%87le-i%cc%87kli%cc%87mi%cc%87n-korunmasi-elektromobi%cc%87li%cc%87te-lobi%cc%87ci%cc%87li%cc%87gi%cc%87-ve-gi%cc%87zli%cc%87-mali%cc%87yetler\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">T\u00fcnel vizyonuyla iklim korumas\u0131 - elektromobilite, lobicilik ve bast\u0131r\u0131lan maliyetler<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\u0130deolojisiz elektromobilite\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Elektromobilitaet-ohne-Ideologie.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Elektromobilitaet-ohne-Ideologie.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Elektromobilitaet-ohne-Ideologie-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Elektromobilitaet-ohne-Ideologie-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Elektromobilitaet-ohne-Ideologie-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/tuenel-vi%cc%87zyonu-i%cc%87le-i%cc%87kli%cc%87mi%cc%87n-korunmasi-elektromobi%cc%87li%cc%87te-lobi%cc%87ci%cc%87li%cc%87gi%cc%87-ve-gi%cc%87zli%cc%87-mali%cc%87yetler\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">T\u00fcnel vizyonuyla iklim korumas\u0131 - elektromobilite, lobicilik ve bast\u0131r\u0131lan maliyetler<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"wenn pflicht wieder pflicht wird. eine art essay von herrn von l&#8217;oreot.\" data-id=\"3010\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur stories &amp; humor\" data-post_tag=\"deutschland erfahrungen geopolitik krisen pers\u00f6nlichkeitsentwicklung sicherheitspolitik\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/10\/goerev-tekrar-goerev-oldugunda-bay-von-loreotun-bi%cc%87r-tuer-denemesi%cc%87\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">G\u00f6rev tekrar g\u00f6reve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde. Bay von L'oreot'un bir t\u00fcr denemesi.<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Beklenmedik bir telefon g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loreot-pflicht-anruf.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loreot-pflicht-anruf.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loreot-pflicht-anruf-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loreot-pflicht-anruf-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loreot-pflicht-anruf-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/10\/goerev-tekrar-goerev-oldugunda-bay-von-loreotun-bi%cc%87r-tuer-denemesi%cc%87\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">G\u00f6rev tekrar g\u00f6reve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde. Bay von L'oreot'un bir t\u00fcr denemesi.<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Hakk\u0131nda son haberler <em>\"<\/em>NATO ve Rusya<em>\"<\/em><\/h2>\n<p><strong>10.05.2026<\/strong>Frans\u0131z sava\u015f muhabiri Christelle N\u00e9ant ve gazeteci Patrik Baab'\u0131n yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, Ukrayna'daki sava\u015fa ili\u015fkin alg\u0131lar\u0131n ne kadar farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir kez daha ortaya koyuyor. Y\u0131llard\u0131r Donbass'ta ya\u015fayan N\u00e9ant, bu s\u00f6yle\u015fide \u00f6zellikle sahadaki insanlar\u0131n Bat\u0131 medyas\u0131nda pek yer bulmayan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini aktar\u0131yor. Tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan konular aras\u0131nda Bat\u0131l\u0131 silah tedarikinin rol\u00fc, 2014'ten bu yana ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler, Ukrayna'daki milliyet\u00e7i gruplar\u0131n nas\u0131l ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve medya haberlerinin bug\u00fcn hala ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z oldu\u011fu sorusu yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_P63ZLzSA7Ko\"><div id=\"lyte_P63ZLzSA7Ko\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FP63ZLzSA7Ko%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/P63ZLzSA7Ko\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FP63ZLzSA7Ko%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\nSava\u015f muhabiri a\u011fz\u0131ndaki baklay\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 - Christelle N\u00e9ant | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@PatrikBaab-Official\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Patrik Baab<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 zamanda, hem Rusya ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131nda hem de Avrupa toplumlar\u0131n\u0131n kendi i\u00e7lerinde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00fcvensizli\u011fin ne kadar derinle\u015fti\u011fi ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu tart\u0131\u015fma klasik bir haber analizinden ziyade medya, propaganda ve jeopolitik anlat\u0131lara ele\u015ftirel bir bak\u0131\u015f niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. Tam da bu nedenle, Avrupa ve Rusya'n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak daha fazla t\u0131rmanmaya do\u011fru mu gitti\u011fi yoksa siyasi ve medya dinamiklerinin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u015fiddetlendirip \u015fiddetlendirmedi\u011fi konusundaki mevcut tart\u0131\u015fmaya \u00e7ok iyi uyuyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>18.04.2026<\/strong>: Rus B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.berliner-zeitung.de\/politik-gesellschaft\/russlands-botschafter-im-theater-ost-in-berlin-mit-wem-sollen-wir-einen-krieg-anfangen-li.10031187\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Sergej Netschajew Berlin'deki \u201eTheater Ost \u201cta\u201c<\/strong><\/a> kamuoyundaki tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ne kadar gergin ve \u00e7eli\u015fkili oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Kapal\u0131 gi\u015fe oynayan tiyatro salonunda Rusya ve Almanya aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiler \u00fczerine bir tart\u0131\u015fma yap\u0131l\u0131rken, bina d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda toplanan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir grup g\u00f6sterici etkinli\u011fi protesto etti. B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i, Rusya'n\u0131n ilk etapta kiminle sava\u015f ba\u015flatmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi sorusunu ortaya att\u0131 ve kendi bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu t\u00fcr su\u00e7lamalar\u0131n sa\u00e7mal\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda siyasi pozisyonlar\u0131n ne kadar sertle\u015fti\u011fi de ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: Diyalog formatlar\u0131na bile giderek daha ele\u015ftirel bak\u0131l\u0131yor ya da kamuoyu \u00f6n\u00fcnde sorgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_JeQVMOwjbq8\"><div id=\"lyte_JeQVMOwjbq8\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FJeQVMOwjbq8%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/JeQVMOwjbq8\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FJeQVMOwjbq8%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\nRusya B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi OST tiyatrosunda: \u201eKiminle sava\u015f ba\u015flatmal\u0131y\u0131z?\u201c | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@BerlinerZeitung_BLZ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Berliner Zeitung<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bu nedenle makale net bir tablo \u00e7izmekten ziyade, halihaz\u0131rda kamusal tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 karakterize eden gerilimleri vurgulamaktad\u0131r. G\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 kayg\u0131lar\u0131, siyasi s\u00f6ylemler ve toplumsal tepkiler aras\u0131nda, diyalo\u011fun bile bir \u00e7eki\u015fme konusu haline geldi\u011fi bir iklim ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle bu geli\u015fme, giderek kutupla\u015fan bir ortamda diyalog ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f al\u0131\u015fveri\u015finin de\u011ferine ili\u015fkin temel bir soruyu g\u00fcndeme getirmektedir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>02.04.2026<\/strong>\u0130svi\u00e7re'de yay\u0131mlanan Infosperber dergisinde yer alan bir makaleye g\u00f6re, Rusya'dan Avrupa'ya y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir tehdide ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncel tart\u0131\u015fmalarda da \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde farkl\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeler s\u00f6z konusu. Yak\u0131n tarihli bir makale, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek kay\u0131plar ve nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck toprak kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda Rusya'n\u0131n askeri kapasitesinin abart\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor. Var\u0131lan sonu\u00e7, Rusya'n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir <a href=\"https:\/\/www.infosperber.ch\/politik\/welt\/aufruesten-gegen-ein-bedrohliches-russland-ist-geldverschwendung\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Rusya'ya kar\u015f\u0131 silahlanma para israf\u0131d\u0131r<\/strong><\/a> ol.<\/p>\n<p>Yazarlar, Rusya'n\u0131n uzun y\u0131llar s\u00fcren yo\u011fun \u00e7abalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir ilerleme kaydetti\u011fine ve ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00f6nemli bir ekonomik ve personel bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekmektedir. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, Avrupa'da kapsaml\u0131 silahlanmaya y\u00f6nelik yayg\u0131n talep ele\u015ftirel bir g\u00f6zle incelenmekte ve ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan sorgulanabilir olarak nitelendirilmektedir. Makalede ayr\u0131ca abart\u0131l\u0131 tehdit alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda savunma sanayii gibi yap\u0131sal \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Bu de\u011ferlendirme, mevcut siyasi ve askeri uyar\u0131larla a\u00e7\u0131k bir tezat olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>17.03.2026<\/strong>Alman Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri Eski Genel M\u00fcfetti\u015fi ve NATO Askeri Komitesi Eski Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Harald Kujat, ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 konu\u015fmas\u0131nda Ukrayna'daki sava\u015fa ili\u015fkin mevcut alg\u0131n\u0131n eksiksiz mi yoksa siyasi ve medya \u00e7er\u00e7eveleri taraf\u0131ndan m\u0131 \u015fekillendirildi\u011fini soruyor. Hem askeri hem de diplomatik boyutlara \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutan Kujat, daha \u00f6nceki m\u00fczakere yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k kamuoyundaki tart\u0131\u015fmalarda neredeyse hi\u00e7 rol oynamad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Kujat diplomasiye geri d\u00f6n\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fini savunuyor ve askeri \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlere tek tarafl\u0131 odaklanman\u0131n uzun vadede s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorguluyor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_oxpiBN9FwjY\"><div id=\"lyte_oxpiBN9FwjY\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FoxpiBN9FwjY%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/oxpiBN9FwjY\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FoxpiBN9FwjY%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\nUkrayna sava\u015f\u0131, NATO ve diplomasi - Harald Kujat ile \u201eSava\u015f mant\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yollar\u0131\u201c! | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@IPPNWgermany\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">IPPNWAlmanya<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bu sunumdan k\u0131sa bir al\u0131nt\u0131 daha \u00f6nce <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/propaganda-tari%cc%87hi%cc%87-yoentemleri%cc%87-modern-formlar-ve-bunlarin-nasil-taninacagi\/\"><strong>Propaganda makalesi<\/strong><\/a> Burada medya mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131 tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in belirli bir anekdot kullanmaktad\u0131r. Konferans\u0131n tamam\u0131 daha geni\u015f bir ba\u011flam sunmakta ve analizi g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 ve tarihsel s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmalarla desteklemektedir.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Yakla\u015fan sald\u0131r\u0131ya ili\u015fkin her yerde mevcut olan anlat\u0131<\/h2>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn haberleri takip eden herkes benzer ifadelerle tekrar tekrar kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor: Rusya Sovyetler Birli\u011fi'ni yeniden kurmak istiyor, Ukrayna'dan sonraki ad\u0131m Balt\u0131k \u00fclkeleri, Polonya ve hatta Almanya olacak. Dediklerine g\u00f6re sava\u015f <em>\u201ebize gel\u201c<\/em>. Ba\u015fkalar\u0131na minnettar olmal\u0131s\u0131n. <em>\u201ebizim i\u00e7in\u201c<\/em> led.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ifadeler art\u0131k o kadar yayg\u0131n ki neredeyse hi\u00e7 sorgulanm\u0131yor. Teori ya da yorum de\u011fil, yerle\u015fik ger\u00e7ekler gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar. Ancak sorun da burada ba\u015fl\u0131yor: bir iddia ne kadar s\u0131k tekrarlan\u0131rsa, g\u00fcvenilir olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da o kadar az irdeleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu makale tam da bu noktaya de\u011finmeyi ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r. Kar\u015f\u0131 sloganlarla de\u011fil, basit, neredeyse eski moda bir soruyla:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Ger\u00e7ekte ne kan\u0131tlanabilir - ve ne sadece iddia edilir?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h3>Korku, ahlak ve analiz aras\u0131nda<\/h3>\n<p>Ukrayna'daki sava\u015f\u0131n korkular\u0131 tetiklemesi anla\u015f\u0131labilir bir durumdur. Avrupa'da sava\u015f soyut bir fikir de\u011fil, tarihimizin ger\u00e7ek bir deneyimidir. Ancak duygu ile analiz, ahlaki yarg\u0131 ile stratejik de\u011ferlendirme aras\u0131nda net bir ayr\u0131m yapmak, \u00f6zellikle de b\u00f6yle zamanlarda \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<p>Bunun yerine, bu seviyeler genellikle birbirine kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Soru soran herkes hemen saf ya da \u015f\u00fcpheli olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Farkl\u0131la\u015fanlar ise kendilerini hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karmak i\u00e7in bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girerler. Oysa farkl\u0131la\u015fma kay\u0131ts\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n de\u011fil, sorumlulu\u011fun bir i\u015faretidir.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu metnin a\u00e7\u0131k bir hedefi var: ne ge\u00e7i\u015ftirmek ne de dramatize etmek istiyor. Olaylar\u0131 bir d\u00fczene sokmak istemektedir. Bu makale Rus politikas\u0131n\u0131n bir savunmas\u0131 de\u011fildir. Ac\u0131 ya da \u015fiddetin g\u00f6relile\u015ftirilmesi de de\u011fildir. Farkl\u0131 yarg\u0131lara varan insanlara kar\u015f\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131 da de\u011fildir. Elde etmek istedi\u011fi \u015fey ba\u015fka bir \u015feydir:<\/p>\n<p>Rusya'n\u0131n hedefleri hakk\u0131nda neler s\u00f6ylendi\u011fi, ger\u00e7ekte neler s\u00f6ylendi\u011fi, hangi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n makul oldu\u011fu ve hangi varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n daha yak\u0131ndan incelendi\u011finde \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede az ger\u00e7ekli\u011fe sahip oldu\u011funa dair \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir kategorizasyon.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ayn\u0131 zamanda rahats\u0131z edici sorular\u0131 da beraberinde getirecektir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Rusya'n\u0131n bir NATO \u00fclkesine sald\u0131rmas\u0131ndan ne gibi ger\u00e7ek faydalar elde edece\u011fi gibi. Ya da mant\u0131ken pek tutarl\u0131 olmamalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen baz\u0131 s\u00f6ylemlerin neden bu kadar \u0131srarc\u0131 oldu\u011fu. Ve ayr\u0131ca Bat\u0131 siyasetinin, medya mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ve g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 rutinlerinin oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rol.<\/p>\n<h3>Birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek i\u00e7in bir davet<\/h3>\n<p>Bu makale herhangi bir siyasi kampa y\u00f6nelik de\u011fildir. Hi\u00e7bir \u00f6n bilgi varsaymaz ve mutabakat talep etmez. Sizi sadece zaman ay\u0131rmaya davet etmektedir - ba\u011flam i\u00e7in, orijinal ifadeler i\u00e7in, ay\u0131k bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek i\u00e7in.<\/p>\n<p>Belki de olaylar\u0131 eskisinden daha farkl\u0131 g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flayacaks\u0131n\u0131z. Belki de de\u011ferlendirmenize sad\u0131k kalacaks\u0131n\u0131z. Her ikisi de me\u015frudur. \u00d6nemli olan tek \u015fey, yarg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n sa\u011flam bir temele dayanmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kesin olan bir \u015fey var:<\/p>\n<p>Korkunun siyasi bir fakt\u00f6r haline geldi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde, berrak ve sakin bir zihin l\u00fcks de\u011fil, bir gerekliliktir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-4895 size-large alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Medien-Narrative.jpg\" alt=\"Rusya ve Putin hakk\u0131nda medya ve anlat\u0131lar\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Medien-Narrative.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Medien-Narrative-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Medien-Narrative-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Medien-Narrative-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Anlat\u0131 nereden geliyor? Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ter\u00f6r imgesi olarak Sovyetler Birli\u011fi<\/h2>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn Sovyetler Birli\u011fi'nin s\u00f6zde restorasyonundan neden bu kadar \u00e7ok bahsedildi\u011fini anlamak i\u00e7in ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bir g\u00f6z atmakta fayda var. Eski cepheleri canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in de\u011fil, bug\u00fcn kolektif haf\u0131zada hangi imgelerin hala i\u015f ba\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011funu anlamak i\u00e7in - \u00e7o\u011fu zaman bilin\u00e7sizce.<\/p>\n<p>Bat\u0131'daki pek \u00e7ok insan i\u00e7in Sovyetler Birli\u011fi on y\u0131llar boyunca bir devletten \u00e7ok daha fazlas\u0131yd\u0131. Bir projeksiyon y\u00fczeyi, bir d\u00fc\u015fman, bir tehdit sembol\u00fcyd\u00fc. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f sadece jeopolitik bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda psikolojik bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayd\u0131. Her ikisi de kendi ahlaki \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fcklerine inanm\u0131\u015f iki sistem kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geldi. Bu s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde kutupla\u015fm\u0131\u015f bir d\u00fcnya g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Burada \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck, orada bask\u0131;<\/li>\n<li>Burada refah, orada k\u0131tl\u0131k;<\/li>\n<li>Burada demokrasi, orada diktat\u00f6rl\u00fck.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Bu basitle\u015ftirmeler siyasi a\u00e7\u0131dan i\u015flevseldi ve bug\u00fcn hala etkisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<h3>\u201eZafer\u201c olarak \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fcme - ve onun g\u00f6lgeleri<\/h3>\n<p>Sovyetler Birli\u011fi 1990\u201elar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, bu Bat\u0131'da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tarihsel bir zafer olarak yorumland\u0131. Sistemik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyordu, tarihin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc buldu\u011funa inan\u0131l\u0131yordu. \u201cTarihin sonu\" gibi terimler ortal\u0131kta dola\u015f\u0131yordu ve art\u0131k kal\u0131c\u0131 bir istikrar evresinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hissi vard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7o\u011fu zaman g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7an bir \u015fey var: Rusya'n\u0131n kendisi i\u00e7in bu par\u00e7alanma sadece siyasi yeniden yap\u0131lanma de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda derin bir ekonomik, sosyal ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel kopu\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyordu. T\u00fcm end\u00fcstriler \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc, devlet yap\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc ve ya\u015famlar de\u011fersizle\u015fti. Bir gecede milyonlarca insan, yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden kendilerini yeni devletlerde buldu. Bu deneyim bug\u00fcn hala Rusya'n\u0131n \u00f6z imaj\u0131n\u0131 karakterize etmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Bat\u0131'da pek rol oynamazken, orada farkl\u0131 bir yorum yerle\u015fti: eski d\u00fc\u015fman yenilmi\u015fti ve \u015fimdi \u201egeri d\u00f6nmemesi\u201c i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak kontrol edilmesi gerekiyordu.<\/p>\n<h3>Tarihi rakipten zamans\u0131z uyar\u0131 sembol\u00fcne<\/h3>\n<p>Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce tarz\u0131, bug\u00fcne kadar \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde sabit kalan bir anlat\u0131ya yol a\u00e7t\u0131: Rusya'n\u0131n siyasi olarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 her \u015fey, refleks olarak Sovyetler Birli\u011fi'ne kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bat\u0131 politikalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ele\u015ftiriler h\u0131zla r\u00f6van\u015fizm, g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131 emperyal h\u0131rs, tarihsel referanslar ise yay\u0131lmac\u0131 planlar\u0131n kan\u0131t\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Rusya'n\u0131n -otoriter \u00f6zelliklerine ra\u011fmen- art\u0131k bir ideolojik sistem ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131kl\u0131kla g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmektedir. K\u00fcresel bir misyonu, di\u011fer \u00fclkelere empoze edilecek rakip bir toplumsal modeli yok. Yine de eski korkutma imaj\u0131 etkili olmaya devam ediyor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc tan\u0131d\u0131k. Karma\u015f\u0131k bir d\u00fcnyada basit a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durum, \u00e7er\u00e7eve ko\u015fullar\u0131 temelde farkl\u0131 olsa bile, her t\u00fcrl\u00fc gerilimi otomatik olarak So\u011fuk Sava\u015f'\u0131n bir tekrar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmektedir.<\/p>\n<h3>Medya mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve siyasi k\u0131saltmalar<\/h3>\n<p>Anlat\u0131lar bo\u015flukta ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaz. Medya mant\u0131\u011f\u0131, siyasi ileti\u015fim ve insanlar\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirme ihtiyac\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilirler. Bir tehdidin tan\u0131d\u0131k bir imaj\u0131n\u0131 aktarmak, farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir analizden daha kolayd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu anlamda \u201eRusya Sovyetler Birli\u011fi'ni geri istiyor\u201c form\u00fcl\u00fc ileti\u015fimsel bir kestirme yoldur. A\u00e7\u0131klamalardan tasarruf sa\u011flar, karma\u015f\u0131k \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 ahlaki kesinlik ile de\u011fi\u015ftirir ve net bir rol da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 yarat\u0131r. \u0130yi ve k\u00f6t\u00fc h\u0131zla belirlenir, \u015f\u00fcpheler gereksiz ve hatta tehlikeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Bu kestirme yollar, \u00f6rne\u011fin g\u00fcvenlik veya d\u0131\u015f politikada ger\u00e7ek kararlar\u0131n temeli haline geldi\u011finde sorunlu hale gelir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc tarihsel bir korku hikayesini g\u00fcncel bir kesinli\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmek g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc daralt\u0131r ve manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Ge\u00e7mi\u015f ve bug\u00fcn aras\u0131nda<\/h3>\n<p>Burada net bir ayr\u0131m yapmak \u00f6nemlidir: evet, Rusya s\u0131k s\u0131k tarihe at\u0131fta bulunur. Evet, tarihsel deneyim Rus siyasetinde \u00f6nemli bir rol oynamaktad\u0131r. Ancak tarihsel referans, ge\u00e7mi\u015f imparatorluklar\u0131n topraksal restorasyonuna y\u00f6nelik bir planla e\u015f anlaml\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Bat\u0131l\u0131 devletler de dahil olmak \u00fczere pek \u00e7ok devlet tarihi kimlik olu\u015fturmak, \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmak ya da me\u015fruiyet sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131r. Belirleyici fark, tarihe ba\u015fvurulmas\u0131nda de\u011fil, somut politikan\u0131n tarihten nas\u0131l t\u00fcretildi\u011finde yatmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte tam da bu noktada bir sonraki analiz seviyesi devreye girer: Ger\u00e7ekte ne s\u00f6ylendi? Bundan hangi hedefler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilir - ve hangileri \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lamaz?<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Sovyetler Birli\u011fi'nin yeniden kurulmas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015fmakta oldu\u011fu imaj\u0131, g\u00fcvenilir kan\u0131tlardan ziyade tarihsel bask\u0131n\u0131n bir ifadesidir. \u00d6zellikle Bat\u0131'da pek \u00e7ok \u015feyi a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Korkular\u0131, siyasi refleksleri, medya abart\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Ancak Rusya'n\u0131n 21. y\u00fczy\u0131ldaki ger\u00e7ek \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 ve manevra alan\u0131 hakk\u0131nda \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede az \u015fey a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bunlar\u0131 birbirinden ay\u0131rmak i\u00e7in bir sonraki ad\u0131m gereklidir: belirli ifadelere, konu\u015fmalara ve metinlere bakmak. Man\u015fetlere de\u011fil, orijinallere. Bir sonraki b\u00f6l\u00fcm tam olarak bununla ilgilidir.<\/p>\n<h3>T\u0131rmand\u0131rma ve sorumluluk aras\u0131nda diplomasi<\/h3>\n<p>22 Ocak 2026 tarihinde D\u00fcsseldorf'taki Brauhaus am Dreieck'te d\u00fczenlenecek olan etkinlik, uluslararas\u0131 gerilimlerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde giderek \u00f6nem kazanan bir soruya odaklan\u0131yor: Diplomasi bug\u00fcn hala nas\u0131l bir rol oynayabilir?<\/p>\n<p>Eski tu\u011fgeneral ve \u015eans\u00f6lye'nin g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Erich Vad, eski Belediye Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Thomas Geisel ile birlikte askeri t\u0131rmanman\u0131n risklerini ve siyasi uzla\u015f\u0131 olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_nOWnVaSjE3Y\"><div id=\"lyte_nOWnVaSjE3Y\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FnOWnVaSjE3Y%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/nOWnVaSjE3Y\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FnOWnVaSjE3Y%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\nGer\u00e7ek siyaset neden diplomasiyle ba\u015flar? - Erich Vad ve Thomas Geisel |\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WestendVerlag\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Westend Yay\u0131nevi<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Odak noktas\u0131 stratejik ak\u0131l, reelpolitik de\u011ferlendirmeler ve Avrupal\u0131 oyuncular\u0131n sorumluluklar\u0131d\u0131r. Tart\u0131\u015fma Vad'\u0131n kitab\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r \u201e<a href=\"https:\/\/westendverlag.de\/Krieg-oder-Frieden-Deutschland-vor-der-Entscheidung\/2332\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sava\u015f ya da bar\u0131\u015f<\/a>\u201c olarak tan\u0131mlamakta ve kendisini g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 \u00fczerine a\u00e7\u0131k bir tart\u0131\u015fmaya katk\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rmektedir.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"display-post-types\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">\n\t\t\t#dpt-wrapper-911 { --dpt-text-align: left;--dpt-image-crop: center;--dpt-border-radius: 5px;--dpt-h-gutter: 10px;--dpt-v-gutter: 10px; }\t\t\t<\/style>\n\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">#dpt-wrapper-911 { --dpt-title-font-style:normal;--dpt-title-font-weight:600;--dpt-title-line-height:1.5;--dpt-title-text-decoration:none;--dpt-title-text-transform:none;--dpt-excerpt-font-style:normal;--dpt-excerpt-font-weight:400;--dpt-excerpt-line-height:1.5;--dpt-excerpt-text-decoration:none;--dpt-excerpt-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta1-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta1-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta1-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta1-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta1-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta2-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta2-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta2-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta2-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta2-text-transform:none; }<\/style><div class=\"dpt-main-header\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-main-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dpt-main-title-text\">Almanya hakk\u0131nda g\u00fcncel makaleler<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div id=\"dpt-wrapper-911\" class=\"dpt-wrapper dpt-list2 land1 dpt-cropped dpt-flex-wrap\" >\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"ulrike gu\u00e9rot: eine europ\u00e4erin zwischen idee, universit\u00e4t und \u00f6ffentlichem diskurs\" data-id=\"4039\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur\" data-post_tag=\"denkmodelle deutschland europa geopolitik krisen meinungsfreiheit portrait sicherheitspolitik spieltheorie\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/ulrike-guerot-ueni%cc%87versi%cc%87te-fi%cc%87kri%cc%87-ve-kamusal-soeylem-arasinda-bi%cc%87r-avrupali\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Ulrike Gu\u00e9rot: Fikir, \u00fcniversite ve kamusal s\u00f6ylem aras\u0131nda bir Avrupal\u0131<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Ulrike Gu\u00e9rot ve Avrupa\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/ulrike-guerot-portrait.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/ulrike-guerot-portrait.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/ulrike-guerot-portrait-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/ulrike-guerot-portrait-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/ulrike-guerot-portrait-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/ulrike-guerot-ueni%cc%87versi%cc%87te-fi%cc%87kri%cc%87-ve-kamusal-soeylem-arasinda-bi%cc%87r-avrupali\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Ulrike Gu\u00e9rot: Fikir, \u00fcniversite ve kamusal s\u00f6ylem aras\u0131nda bir Avrupal\u0131<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"klimaschutz mit tunnelblick &#8211; elektromobilit\u00e4t, lobbyarbeit und die verdr\u00e4ngten kosten\" data-id=\"4729\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft\" data-post_tag=\"deutschland energiepolitik erfahrungen eu-gesetze europa\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/tuenel-vi%cc%87zyonu-i%cc%87le-i%cc%87kli%cc%87mi%cc%87n-korunmasi-elektromobi%cc%87li%cc%87te-lobi%cc%87ci%cc%87li%cc%87gi%cc%87-ve-gi%cc%87zli%cc%87-mali%cc%87yetler\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">T\u00fcnel vizyonuyla iklim korumas\u0131 - elektromobilite, lobicilik ve bast\u0131r\u0131lan maliyetler<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\u0130deolojisiz elektromobilite\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Elektromobilitaet-ohne-Ideologie.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Elektromobilitaet-ohne-Ideologie.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Elektromobilitaet-ohne-Ideologie-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Elektromobilitaet-ohne-Ideologie-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Elektromobilitaet-ohne-Ideologie-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/tuenel-vi%cc%87zyonu-i%cc%87le-i%cc%87kli%cc%87mi%cc%87n-korunmasi-elektromobi%cc%87li%cc%87te-lobi%cc%87ci%cc%87li%cc%87gi%cc%87-ve-gi%cc%87zli%cc%87-mali%cc%87yetler\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">T\u00fcnel vizyonuyla iklim korumas\u0131 - elektromobilite, lobicilik ve bast\u0131r\u0131lan maliyetler<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"mehr als punk: nina hagen, cosma shiva und die kunst, sich nicht vereinnahmen zu lassen\" data-id=\"4521\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur\" data-post_tag=\"auswandern deutschland erfahrungen europa krisen meinungsfreiheit musik portrait\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/punktan-daha-fazlasi-nina-hagen-cosma-shiva-ve-aldanmama-sanati\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Punk'tan daha fazlas\u0131: Nina Hagen, Cosma Shiva ve kendini kapt\u0131rmama sanat\u0131<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Nina ve Cosma Shiva Hagen&#039;in Portresi\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nina-Cosma-Shiva-Hagen-Titel.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nina-Cosma-Shiva-Hagen-Titel.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nina-Cosma-Shiva-Hagen-Titel-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nina-Cosma-Shiva-Hagen-Titel-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nina-Cosma-Shiva-Hagen-Titel-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/punktan-daha-fazlasi-nina-hagen-cosma-shiva-ve-aldanmama-sanati\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Punk'tan daha fazlas\u0131: Nina Hagen, Cosma Shiva ve kendini kapt\u0131rmama sanat\u0131<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"wie war syrien vor dem krieg? wer regiert heute? was bedeutet das f\u00fcr gefl\u00fcchtete in deutschland?\" data-id=\"4628\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur\" data-post_tag=\"deutschland europa geopolitik krisen meinungsfreiheit sicherheitspolitik\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/savastan-oence-suri%cc%87ye-nasildi-buguen-ki%cc%87m-yoeneti%cc%87yor-bu-almanyadaki%cc%87-muelteci%cc%87ler-i%cc%87ci%cc%87n-ne-anlama-geli%cc%87yor\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Sava\u015ftan \u00f6nce Suriye nas\u0131l bir yerdi? Bug\u00fcn kim y\u00f6netiyor? Bu Almanya'daki m\u00fclteciler i\u00e7in ne anlama geliyor?<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Suriye ve \u015eam\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Syrien-Damaskus.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Syrien-Damaskus.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Syrien-Damaskus-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Syrien-Damaskus-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Syrien-Damaskus-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/savastan-oence-suri%cc%87ye-nasildi-buguen-ki%cc%87m-yoeneti%cc%87yor-bu-almanyadaki%cc%87-muelteci%cc%87ler-i%cc%87ci%cc%87n-ne-anlama-geli%cc%87yor\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Sava\u015ftan \u00f6nce Suriye nas\u0131l bir yerdi? Bug\u00fcn kim y\u00f6netiyor? Bu Almanya'daki m\u00fclteciler i\u00e7in ne anlama geliyor?<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Vladimir Putin asl\u0131nda ne dedi<\/h2>\n<p>Vladimir Putin kadar s\u0131k al\u0131nt\u0131lanan ve buna ra\u011fmen bu kadar nadiren ba\u011flam\u0131 i\u00e7inde okunan ba\u015fka bir \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f siyasi fig\u00fcr neredeyse yoktur. Konu\u015fmalardan m\u00fcnferit c\u00fcmleler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131r, k\u0131salt\u0131l\u0131r, keskinle\u015ftirilir ve ard\u0131ndan geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n kan\u0131t\u0131 olarak ilan edilir. \u0130\u015fte tam da bu nedenle ona atfedilenlere de\u011fil, ger\u00e7ekte ne s\u00f6yledi\u011fine ve hangi ba\u011flamda s\u00f6yledi\u011fine daha yak\u0131ndan bakmaya de\u011fer.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, genellikle iddia edilenden daha az dikkat \u00e7ekici, ancak bu nedenle a\u00e7\u0131klama gerektiren bir model ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>2005 konu\u015fmas\u0131: kay\u0131p, yeniden fetih de\u011fil<\/h3>\n<p>S\u0131kl\u0131kla at\u0131fta bulunulan bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131, Putin'in 2005 y\u0131l\u0131nda Federal Meclis'te yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Sovyetler Birli\u011fi'nin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc \u015fu \u015fekilde tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmad\u0131r <em>\u201e20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik felaketi\u201c<\/em> etiketlendi. Bu c\u00fcmle bug\u00fcn bile pek \u00e7ok ki\u015fi taraf\u0131ndan r\u00f6van\u015fist emellerin kan\u0131t\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak konu\u015fmay\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131 i\u00e7inde okudu\u011funuzda, Putin'in topraklar\u0131n yeniden fethinden de\u011fil, \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn sosyal ve siyasi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan bahsetti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Kendilerini bir anda Rusya d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015farken bulan milyonlarca insana, ekonomik \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe, kurumsal zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa ve devletin hareket kabiliyetini kaybetmesine at\u0131fta bulunuyor. \u201eFelaket\u201c her \u015feyden \u00f6nce bir i\u00e7 krizi tan\u0131ml\u0131yor - bir d\u0131\u015f politika program\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00f6nemli bir farkt\u0131r. Bu perspektifi ele\u015ftirebilir veya reddedebilirsiniz, ancak bu yeni bir imparatorluk ilan etmekle ayn\u0131 \u015fey de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<h3>Arg\u00fcmantasyon i\u00e7in bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve olarak tarih<\/h3>\n<p>Putin'in konu\u015fmalar\u0131nda tekrar eden ikinci bir unsur da tarihe yap\u0131lan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc at\u0131flard\u0131r. Bu \u00f6zellikle Ukrayna'ya ili\u015fkin yorumlar\u0131nda, \u00f6rne\u011fin 2014'teki K\u0131r\u0131m konu\u015fmas\u0131nda veya 2021'deki ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 makalesinde a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Putin burada tarihsel s\u00fcreklilikleri, k\u00fclt\u00fcrel kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve ge\u00e7mi\u015f on y\u0131llar\u0131n siyasi kararlar\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu metinlerde Ukrayna, Bat\u0131'n\u0131n tasarlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 net bir \u015fekilde \u00e7izilmi\u015f bir ulus devletten ziyade, Rusya ile yak\u0131n ba\u011flar\u0131 olan ve tarihsel olarak evrim ge\u00e7irmi\u015f bir b\u00f6lge olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r ve g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn uluslararas\u0131 hukuk anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a \u00e7eli\u015fmektedir. Bununla birlikte, bundan \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir: Putin tarihi \u00f6ncelikle n\u00fcfuz iddialar\u0131n\u0131 me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131yor, k\u00fcresel geni\u015flemeyi duyurmak i\u00e7in de\u011fil. Onun arg\u00fcman\u0131 ileriye de\u011fil, geriye d\u00f6n\u00fckt\u00fcr. Belirli b\u00f6lgelerin Rusya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan neden \u00f6zellikle hassas kabul edildi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor - ancak bu b\u00f6lgelerin \u00f6tesine geni\u015fleme d\u00fcrt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc otomatik olarak a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<h3>G\u00fcvenlik, d\u00fcnya hakimiyeti de\u011fil<\/h3>\n<p>Tehdit ve g\u00fcvenlik konusu Putin'in g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin neredeyse t\u00fcm konu\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ana temas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. NATO'nun do\u011fuya do\u011fru geni\u015flemesine, Rusya s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n askeri altyap\u0131ya ve So\u011fuk Sava\u015f'\u0131n sona ermesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcvende bir k\u0131r\u0131lma olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015feye defalarca at\u0131fta bulunuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu de\u011ferlendirme nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendirilirse de\u011ferlendirilsin, savunmac\u0131 bir mant\u0131k izlemektedir. Putin d\u00fczenli olarak Rusya'y\u0131 ba\u015flatan de\u011fil tepki veren bir akt\u00f6r olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor. Konu\u015fmalar\u0131nda fetih arzusundan ya da ideolojik bir misyondan de\u011fil ku\u015fat\u0131lm\u0131\u015fl\u0131ktan, k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131ktan ve stratejik dengesizlikten bahsediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn nesnel olarak do\u011fru oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmez. Ancak tutarl\u0131d\u0131r. Ve yabanc\u0131 ittifaklar\u0131 par\u00e7alamak ya da yeni n\u00fcfuz b\u00f6lgeleri fethetmek i\u00e7in aktif olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir devlet fikrinden a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a farkl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>\u00d6zel bir durum olarak Ukrayna<\/h3>\n<p>Ukrayna, Putin'in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesinde \u00f6zel bir rol oynamaktad\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez. Bir\u00e7ok konu\u015fmas\u0131nda ve metninde tarihsel olarak Ukrayna devletinin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorguluyor ve Bat\u0131'ya y\u00f6nelik siyasi y\u00f6nelimini ele\u015ftiriyor. Bu tart\u0131\u015fma 2022'de s\u00f6zde Halk Cumhuriyetlerinin tan\u0131nmas\u0131 ve nihayetinde askeri m\u00fcdahale ile sonu\u00e7lan\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Politikas\u0131n\u0131n en sorunlu y\u00f6n\u00fc burada ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: tarih, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz \u015fiddetinin bir gerek\u00e7esi haline geliyor. Bununla birlikte, burada da bir ayr\u0131m yapmak gerekiyor. Ukrayna Putin taraf\u0131ndan \u201ekeyfi bir kom\u015fu \u00fclke\u201c olarak de\u011fil, kendi tarihsel anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak bir istisna olarak ele al\u0131n\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131, s\u0131k s\u0131k iddia edilen Avrupa'ya yay\u0131lma niyetinden ay\u0131ran \u015fey de tam olarak budur.<\/p>\n<p>Ukrayna'dan otomatik olarak Litvanya, Polonya veya Almanya'y\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karan herkes, belirleyici bir tart\u0131\u015fma ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 atl\u0131yor demektir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-4896 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Putin.jpg\" alt=\"Putin&#039;in A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Putin.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Putin-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Putin-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Putin-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Putin'in kamuoyuna yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ve yayg\u0131n Bat\u0131 s\u00f6ylemleri<\/h3>\n<div style=\"overflow-x: auto;\">\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background-color: #f0f0f0;\">\n<th>Konu<\/th>\n<th>Putin'in belgelenmi\u015f a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131<\/th>\n<th>S\u0131k s\u0131k bat\u0131 anlat\u0131s\u0131<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Sovyetler Birli\u011fi<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>Sosyal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 nedeniyle jeopolitik bir felaket olarak par\u00e7alanma<\/td>\n<td>Rusya, Sovyetler Birli\u011fi'ni b\u00f6lgesel olarak yeniden kurmak istiyor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>NATO \u00fclkeleri<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>NATO \u00fcyelerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131larla ilgilenilmedi\u011fi vurguland\u0131<\/td>\n<td>Rusya Balt\u0131k \u00fclkelerine veya Polonya'ya sald\u0131r\u0131 planl\u0131yor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Ukrayna<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>\u00d6zel tarihsel rol, g\u00fcvenlik ve etki arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131<\/td>\n<td>Ukrayna daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir geni\u015flemenin sadece ilk ad\u0131m\u0131<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak Avrupa<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>Prensipte i\u015fbirli\u011fi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn, istikrarl\u0131 ili\u015fkilere ilgi<\/td>\n<td>Rusya'n\u0131n bir sonraki askeri hedefi Avrupa<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<h2>NATO \u00fclkelerine ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar: \u00c7arp\u0131c\u0131 derecede net<\/h2>\n<p>Putin'in NATO \u00fclkeleriyle ilgili olarak kendisini ne kadar net ifade etti\u011fi dikkat \u00e7ekicidir. Bir\u00e7ok r\u00f6portaj\u0131nda ve konu\u015fmas\u0131nda - \u00f6zellikle 2022'den bu yana - Rusya'n\u0131n Polonya, Balt\u0131k \u00fclkeleri veya di\u011fer NATO \u00fcyeleri gibi \u00fclkelere sald\u0131rmak gibi bir niyeti olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. B\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m\u0131n orant\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcresel sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 vurguluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar Bat\u0131'da genellikle saf taktikler ya da propaganda olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Ancak bunlara g\u00fcvenmeseniz bile, s\u00f6ylenmesi gerekenler var: Putin'in Rusya'n\u0131n NATO topraklar\u0131na do\u011fru geni\u015fleyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ilan etti\u011fi ya da bu ihtimali dile getirdi\u011fi belgelenmi\u015f hi\u00e7bir konu\u015fmas\u0131 yoktur.<\/p>\n<p>Rus siyasetinin medya taraf\u0131ndan yo\u011fun bir \u015fekilde izlendi\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu bo\u015fluk dikkat \u00e7ekicidir.<\/p>\n<h3>\u0130deoloji ve pragmatizm aras\u0131nda<\/h3>\n<p>Putin'in retori\u011fi ideolojik unsurlar ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesinin bir kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r. Tarih, kimlik ve egemenli\u011fin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra maliyetler, riskler ve k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 ili\u015fkilerinden de bahsediyor. \u00d6zellikle bu ikinci k\u0131s\u0131m kamuoyu alg\u0131s\u0131nda genellikle hafife al\u0131n\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6rne\u011fin ekonomik konularda Putin d\u00fczenli olarak istikrar, ticaret ve uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilere duyulan ihtiyac\u0131 vurguluyor. Bu pasajlarda Rusya kendisini izole bir blok olarak de\u011fil, net \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 olan ama misyonerlik iddialar\u0131 olmayan, a\u011flarla \u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fc bir d\u00fcnyan\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak sunuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yine, bu ahlaki bir yarg\u0131 de\u011fil, ki\u015finin kendi \u00f6z imaj\u0131n\u0131n bir tan\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Eksik olan: B\u00fcy\u00fck duyuru<\/h3>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu konu\u015fmalar\u0131, metinleri ve r\u00f6portajlar\u0131 bir araya getirdi\u011finizde, bir \u015fey \u00f6zellikle dikkat \u00e7ekicidir: net, sald\u0131rgan bir vizyon eksikli\u011fi. Putin'in Sovyetler Birli\u011fi'ni yeniden kurmaya yakla\u015fan bir hedefi form\u00fcle etti\u011fi ne bir konu\u015fma, ne bir strateji belgesi, ne de bir programatik a\u00e7\u0131klama var.<\/p>\n<p>Bunun yerine g\u00fcvenlik, istikrar, n\u00fcfuz, sayg\u0131 ve denge gibi terimler hakimdir. Bunlar jeopolitik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncenin klasik kategorileridir - yay\u0131lmac\u0131 bir d\u00fcnya anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n dili de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, Rus politikas\u0131n\u0131n zarars\u0131z oldu\u011fu ya da herhangi bir risk bar\u0131nd\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Ancak yayg\u0131n at\u0131flar\u0131n bir\u00e7o\u011funun s\u00f6ylenenlerden ziyade korkulanlara dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu iki seviye aras\u0131nda bir bo\u015fluk vard\u0131r ve mevcut tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc karakterize eden de tam olarak bu bo\u015fluktur. Bu tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 objektif bir \u015fekilde y\u00fcr\u00fctmek i\u00e7in al\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 toplamak yeterli de\u011fildir. Bu ifadelerin arkas\u0131nda hangi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunlara hangi rasyonel s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n konuldu\u011funu da sormal\u0131y\u0131z. Bir sonraki b\u00f6l\u00fcm tam olarak bununla ilgilidir.<\/p>\n<h3>Senaryolar yasal sonu\u00e7lara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/10\/almanyadaki%cc%87-voltaj-duesuesue-ne-anlama-geli%cc%87yor-ve-ne-gi%cc%87bi%cc%87-somut-sonuclari-olacak\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-3002\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Spannungsfall-Deutschland-2025-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Gerilim kutusu-Almanya-2025\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Spannungsfall-Deutschland-2025-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Spannungsfall-Deutschland-2025-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Spannungsfall-Deutschland-2025-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Spannungsfall-Deutschland-2025.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Bir\u00e7ok g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, uluslararas\u0131 sinyaller ve diplomatik de\u011ferlendirmeler d\u00fczeyinde y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u00fcrece soyut kalmaktad\u0131r. Ancak durum \u201egerginlik vakas\u0131\u201c gibi resmi terimlerin aniden pratik bir anlam kazanmas\u0131na neden olacak kadar t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekte ne olur? Makale <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/10\/almanyadaki%cc%87-voltaj-duesuesue-ne-anlama-geli%cc%87yor-ve-ne-gi%cc%87bi%cc%87-somut-sonuclari-olacak\/\"><em><strong>\u201eAlmanya'da gerginlik hali ne anlama geliyor ve bunun somut sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ne olur?\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/a> dergisinde hangi anayasal mekanizmalar\u0131n y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girece\u011fi, hangi sorumluluklar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fi ve bunun devlet, ekonomi ve halk i\u00e7in ne gibi sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmaktad\u0131r. Bu makaledeki d\u0131\u015f politika arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131n\u0131 daha ileri g\u00f6t\u00fcrmek isteyenler, gerekli yasal ve \u00f6rg\u00fctsel s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmay\u0131 burada bulacaklard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h2>Rusya, uzay ve kaynaklar: B\u00f6yle bir \u00fclkenin geni\u015flemeye ihtiyac\u0131 var m\u0131?<\/h2>\n<p>Rus emperyalizminden bahsederken, geni\u015flemenin i\u00e7sel bir zorunluluk, neredeyse tarihsel bir d\u00fczenlilik oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek kolayd\u0131r. Ancak bu t\u00fcr varsay\u0131mlarda bulunmadan \u00f6nce, \u00fclkenin kendi maddi temellerine \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir \u015fekilde bakmakta fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7ta, g\u00fc\u00e7 politikalar\u0131 sadece ideolojilere de\u011fil, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u00e7ok basit fakt\u00f6rlere dayan\u0131r: alan, n\u00fcfus, kaynaklar.<\/p>\n<p>Ve burada Rusya \u00f6zel bir konuma sahiptir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-4897 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Russland-Groesse.jpg\" alt=\"Rusya gibi bir \u00fclkenin daha fazla topra\u011fa ihtiyac\u0131 var m\u0131?\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Russland-Groesse.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Russland-Groesse-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Russland-Groesse-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Russland-Groesse-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte bir \u00fclke<\/h3>\n<p>Rusya, y\u00fcz\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc bak\u0131m\u0131ndan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fclkesidir. Topraklar\u0131 Orta Avrupa'dan Pasifik'e kadar on bir saat dilimine yay\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Bu co\u011frafi ger\u00e7eklik bile tek ba\u015f\u0131na temel bir soruyu g\u00fcndeme getiriyor: Bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki bir \u00fclke neden daha fazla topra\u011fa ihtiya\u00e7 duysun?<\/p>\n<p>Tarihsel fetih sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n genellikle \u00e7ok \u00f6zel sebepleri vard\u0131: toprak eksikli\u011fi, stratejik darbo\u011fazlar, kaynaklara veya deniz yollar\u0131na eri\u015fim. Bu fakt\u00f6rler Rusya i\u00e7in sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ge\u00e7erlidir. \u00dclke, bir\u00e7o\u011fu seyrek n\u00fcfuslu veya \u00e7ok az geli\u015fmi\u015f olan muazzam toprak rezervlerine sahiptir. Geni\u015fleme bu yap\u0131sal zorluklar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmeyecek, aksine daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirecektir.<\/p>\n<h3>Bol kaynak - klasik geni\u015fleme mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tam tersi<\/h3>\n<p>Hammaddeler s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda da Rusya geleneksel yay\u0131lmac\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerden \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ayr\u0131l\u0131yor. Do\u011fal gaz, ham petrol, k\u00f6m\u00fcr, metaller, nadir topraklar, odun, tatl\u0131 su - neredeyse ba\u015fka hi\u00e7bir \u00fclke benzer kaynaklara sahip de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Tarihsel olarak, kaynak a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 fetih politikalar\u0131n\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc itici g\u00fc\u00e7lerinden biri olmu\u015ftur. Ancak Rusya kaynak eksikli\u011finden de\u011fil, mevcut kaynaklar\u0131 ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde geli\u015ftirme, ta\u015f\u0131ma ve kullanma g\u00f6revinden muzdariptir. Bu yap\u0131sal bir sorundur, b\u00f6lgesel bir sorun de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Yabanc\u0131 devletlere y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131 bu durumu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyecektir. Aksine, pazarlara, teknolojiye ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlara eri\u015fimi daha da k\u0131s\u0131tlayacakt\u0131r - tam da bu kaynaklar\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan fakt\u00f6rler.<\/p>\n<h3>S\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 bir fakt\u00f6r olarak demografi<\/h3>\n<p>Genellikle g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilen bir nokta da n\u00fcfus geli\u015fimidir. Rusya gen\u00e7 ve dinamik bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir \u00fclke de\u011fildir. N\u00fcfus baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde durgunla\u015fmakta ya da azalmaktad\u0131r ve t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgelerin n\u00fcfusu yetersizdir. Bug\u00fcn bile \u00fclke i\u00e7inde altyap\u0131y\u0131, idareyi ve ekonomiyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek zorlu bir i\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6lgesel geni\u015fleme sadece toprak kazanmak anlam\u0131na gelmez, ayn\u0131 zamanda uzun vadeli taahh\u00fct anlam\u0131na da gelir: y\u00f6netim, g\u00fcvenlik, tedarik, entegrasyon. T\u00fcm bunlar i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak insan gerekir. Bu, demografik gerilimler ya\u015fayan bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in cazip bir senaryo de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durum, yayg\u0131n anlat\u0131daki temel bir \u00e7eli\u015fkiyi ortaya koymaktad\u0131r: mevcut topraklar\u0131n\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde geli\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir devlet, yabanc\u0131 n\u00fcfusa ve y\u00fcksek siyasi maliyetlere sahip ek alanlardan \u00e7ok az \u015fey kazan\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Etki ve sahiplik aras\u0131ndaki fark<\/h3>\n<p>\u00d6nemli bir analitik ad\u0131m, toprak geni\u015flemesi ile siyasi n\u00fcfuz aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131m yapmakt\u0131r. Devletler, ekonomik, diplomatik, k\u00fclt\u00fcrel ya da g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 hareket ettirmeden de etki yaratmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilirler.<\/p>\n<p>Putin'in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu tam da bununla ilgili: n\u00fcfuz, g\u00fcvenlik b\u00f6lgeleri, kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerle siyasi uyum. Bu ahlaki a\u00e7\u0131dan sorunsuz bir kayg\u0131 de\u011fildir, ancak klasik fetih politikalar\u0131ndan farkl\u0131d\u0131r. Etki geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir, sahip olma ise d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclemez. N\u00fcfuz m\u00fczakere edilebilir, toprak neredeyse hi\u00e7 m\u00fczakere edilemez.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte tam da bu nedenle her etkiyi otomatik olarak geni\u015flemenin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olarak yorumlamak analitik a\u00e7\u0131dan yanl\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Bir maliyet tuza\u011f\u0131 olarak geni\u015fleme<\/h3>\n<p>Tamamen rasyonel bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla, b\u00f6lgesel geni\u015fleme Rusya i\u00e7in her \u015feyden \u00f6nce tek bir \u015fey olacakt\u0131r: bir maliyet tuza\u011f\u0131. Askeri, ekonomik ve siyasi olarak. Her ilave kilometre kare g\u00fcvenlik maliyetlerini artt\u0131r\u0131r, her yeni s\u0131n\u0131r yeni \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma hatlar\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, teknolojik ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar ve yap\u0131sal reform ihtiyac\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olan bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in b\u00f6yle bir stratejiyi a\u00e7\u0131klamak zor olacakt\u0131r. Herhangi bir katma de\u011fer yaratmadan kaynaklar\u0131 ba\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durum basit ama temel bir soruyu g\u00fcndeme getirmektedir: Rusya geni\u015fleme yoluyla hangi \u00f6zel sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zebilir? Bu soru kamuoyundaki tart\u0131\u015fmalarda genellikle cevaps\u0131z kalmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Zihinsel bir tuzak olarak tarihsel analojiler<\/h3>\n<p>\u00c7arl\u0131k, Sovyetler Birli\u011fi gibi tarihi imparatorluklara ba\u015fvurmak \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ikna edici g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de de\u011fi\u015fen \u00e7er\u00e7eve ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmekte ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmaktad\u0131r. 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ekonomik olarak i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7mi\u015f, teknolojik olarak ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ve siyasi olarak hassast\u0131r. Toprak art\u0131k tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir g\u00fc\u00e7 garantisi de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz siyasetini ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u00fczy\u0131llar\u0131n standartlar\u0131yla \u00f6l\u00e7en herkes yanl\u0131\u015f yorumlama riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. Tarih, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme bi\u00e7imlerini a\u00e7\u0131klar - ancak g\u00fcncel \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 analiz etmenin yerini tutamaz.<\/p>\n<p>Bu nedenle Rusya'n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak geni\u015fleme \u00e7abas\u0131 i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131m\u0131, Rusya'n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekli\u011finden ziyade Bat\u0131'n\u0131n beklentileri hakk\u0131nda daha fazla \u015fey s\u00f6ylemektedir. Tan\u0131d\u0131k imgelerle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r, ancak maddi, demografik ve ekonomik fakt\u00f6rleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6z ard\u0131 eder.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, Rus politikas\u0131n\u0131n zarars\u0131z ya da tamamen savunmac\u0131 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Ancak, geni\u015flemenin rasyonel bir hedef olarak pek makul olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor - en az\u0131ndan ideolojik de\u011fil yap\u0131sal bir perspektiften bakarsan\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Bu nedenle bir sonraki b\u00f6l\u00fcm bu yap\u0131sal g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6zellikle netle\u015fti\u011fi bir noktay\u0131 ele almaktad\u0131r: Bir NATO \u00fclkesine y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ger\u00e7ekte neyi tetikler ve neden stratejik bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla bile bu pek olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmez?<\/p>\n<h3>AB ve Rusya i\u00e7in temel rakamlar\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131<\/h3>\n<div style=\"overflow-x: auto;\">\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background-color: #f0f0f0;\">\n<th>Anahtar rakam<\/th>\n<th>AB (27)<\/th>\n<th>Rusya<\/th>\n<th>Durum \/ Kaynak<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Alan (km\u00b2)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>4.101.431<\/td>\n<td>17.098.246<\/td>\n<td>AB: Eurostat Veri Taray\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 (EU27_2020); RU: \u00dclke alan\u0131 (uluslararas\u0131 tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>N\u00fcfus<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>449,2 milyon.<\/td>\n<td>143.5 milyon.<\/td>\n<td>AB: Eurostat (01.01.2024); RU: D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 (2024)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>N\u00fcfus yo\u011funlu\u011fu<\/strong> (n\u00fcfus \/ km\u00b2)<\/td>\n<td>\u2248 109,5<\/td>\n<td>\u2248 8,4<\/td>\n<td>Alan ve n\u00fcfustan hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (yukar\u0131da)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen alan<\/strong> (ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na m\u00b2)<\/td>\n<td>\u2248 9.100<\/td>\n<td>\u2248 119.000<\/td>\n<td>Hesaplanan (alan\/n\u00fcfus)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Do\u011fal gaz rezervleri<\/strong> (kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f)<\/td>\n<td>\u2248 0,4 trilyon m\u00b3<\/td>\n<td>\u2248 37,4 trilyon m\u00b3<\/td>\n<td>AB: K\u00fcresel Enerji Monit\u00f6r\u00fc (2020 sonu); RU: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc verileri (Visual Capitalist arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla, 2024)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Petrol rezervleri<\/strong> (kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f)<\/td>\n<td>\u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck (en b\u00fcy\u00fck AB de\u011ferleri toplamda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tek haneli milyar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda)<\/td>\n<td>58 milyar varil<\/td>\n<td>AB: \u00c7ED \u00fclke verileri (sadece zay\u0131f bir \u015fekilde bir araya getirilmi\u015ftir); RU: ABD \u00c7ED \u00dclke Analizi \u00d6zeti (01.01.2024 itibariyle)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>K\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcretimi<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>45 milyon ton (ta\u015f k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc, 2024)<\/td>\n<td>(y\u00fcksek, birka\u00e7 100 milyon ton\/y\u0131l)<\/td>\n<td>AB: Eurostat (2024 ta\u015f k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc \u00fcretimi); RU: EIA \u00fclke profili (k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcretimi, 2023\/2024)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<h2>NATO'nun bekleme durumu ve t\u0131rmanma: ger\u00e7ekte ne olur<\/h2>\n<p>Neredeyse hi\u00e7bir terim mevcut tart\u0131\u015fmalarda NATO kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar s\u0131k kullan\u0131lm\u0131yor - ve somut olarak bu kadar nadiren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bir NATO \u00fclkesine y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir Rus sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131ndan yaln\u0131zca s\u00f6z edilmesi bile Avrupa'da yak\u0131n bir sava\u015f fikrini yaratmaya yetiyor. Ancak tam da bu noktada s\u00fcre\u00e7lere, \u00e7\u0131karlara ve askeri t\u0131rmanma mant\u0131\u011f\u0131na daha yak\u0131ndan bakmakta fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir NATO \u00fcyesine yap\u0131lacak sald\u0131r\u0131 m\u00fcnferit bir olay olmayacakt\u0131r. Sistemin ihlali anlam\u0131na gelecektir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-4898 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Nato-Debatten.jpg\" alt=\"NATO yard\u0131m\u0131 ve tart\u0131\u015fmalar\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Nato-Debatten.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Nato-Debatten-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Nato-Debatten-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Nato-Debatten-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Madde 5: Otomatizm yok, ancak net bir e\u015fik var<\/h3>\n<p>NATO ittifak\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc Madde 5 olu\u015fturur: kolektif savunma ilkesi. Bir \u00fcye \u00fclkeye yap\u0131lan sald\u0131r\u0131 t\u00fcm \u00fcye \u00fclkelere yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f say\u0131l\u0131r. Bu mekanizma genellikle bir t\u00fcr askeri refleks olarak anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r - sald\u0131r\u0131 e\u015fittir kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Mesele bu kadar basit de\u011fildir. Madde 5, \u00dcye Devletlere belirli bir askeri eylemde bulunma y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc getirmemekte, ancak \u201egerekli g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri ara\u00e7larla\u201c destek sa\u011flama y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc getirmektedir. Bu da siyasi manevra alan\u0131 b\u0131rakmaktad\u0131r. Ancak bu manevra alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bir e\u015fikte sona ermektedir: bir NATO \u00fclkesine y\u00f6nelik kas\u0131tl\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tepkiyi tetikleyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lgili herkes sava\u015f istedi\u011fi i\u00e7in de\u011fil, aksi takdirde ittifak varolu\u015f temelini kaybedece\u011fi i\u00e7in.<\/p>\n<h3>B\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar yerine t\u0131rmanma zincirleri<\/h3>\n<p>Bir NATO \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 son on y\u0131llardaki pek \u00e7ok sava\u015f gibi b\u00f6lgesel olarak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma olmayacakt\u0131r. Derhal birka\u00e7 t\u0131rmanma seviyesini harekete ge\u00e7irecektir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>ASKER\u0130<\/strong>Seferberlik, birlik konu\u015fland\u0131rmalar\u0131, hava sahas\u0131 g\u00fcvenli\u011fi<\/li>\n<li><strong>siyasi<\/strong>Kriz zirveleri, \u00fcltimatomlar, diplomatik blok olu\u015fumu<\/li>\n<li><strong>stratejik<\/strong>N\u00fckleer boyut da dahil olmak \u00fczere cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sinyalleri<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sadece bu zincir bile Rusya'n\u0131n b\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m\u0131 hesaplamas\u0131n\u0131n neden neredeyse imkans\u0131z oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koyuyor. T\u0131rmanma tam olarak kontrol edilemez. Tek tek akt\u00f6rlerin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6tesinde dinamikler yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Stratejik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen devletler tam da bu t\u00fcr durumlardan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rlar - ahlaki nedenlerle de\u011fil, kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 i\u00e7in.<\/p>\n<h3>ABD'nin rol\u00fc: belirsiz garant\u00f6r, ancak hala merkezi<\/h3>\n<p>\u015eu anda yayg\u0131n bir arg\u00fcman, ABD'nin Avrupa'dan giderek daha fazla \u00e7ekildi\u011fi, sava\u015ftan yoruldu\u011fu, \u00fclke i\u00e7inde t\u0131kand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da stratejik olarak Hint-Pasifik'e odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bunlar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri tamamen yanl\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Washington y\u00fck payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, Avrupa'n\u0131n sahipli\u011fini ve \u00f6nceliklerini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak buradan ABD'nin bir NATO \u00fclkesine y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelece\u011fi sonucuna varmak yeterli de\u011fildir. B\u00f6yle bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ABD'nin k\u00fcresel bir lider olarak g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fine b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar verecektir. Sadece Avrupa'da de\u011fil, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada. \u0130ttifaklar ancak garantiler varsa i\u015fe yarar. Tam da bu nedenle, Washington'un bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma durumunda hareketsiz kalmas\u0131 stratejik olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemez - uzun vadeli ama\u00e7 daha fazla Avrupa ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde etmek olsa bile.<\/p>\n<p>NATO'dan \u00e7ekilmek siyasi bir tart\u0131\u015fmad\u0131r. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 yard\u0131m s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc bozmak jeopolitik bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n de\u011fil, belirsizli\u011fin ifadesi olarak Avrupa tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>Avrupa'da kendi n\u00fckleer \u015femsiyesi, stratejik \u00f6zerklik veya savunma birlikleri ile ilgili g\u00fcncel tart\u0131\u015fmalar genellikle NATO'nun \u00e7\u00f6kmekte oldu\u011funun bir kan\u0131t\u0131 olarak yorumlanmaktad\u0131r. Asl\u0131nda bunlar ba\u015fka bir \u015feyi yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r: uzun vadeli ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klara ili\u015fkin belirsizlik.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa se\u00e7enekler yaratmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor - NATO deste\u011finin de\u011fersiz oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in de\u011fil, siyasi manzaralar de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in. Bu tart\u0131\u015fmalar da\u011f\u0131lman\u0131n de\u011fil, tedbirli olman\u0131n bir ifadesidir.<\/p>\n<p>Rusya i\u00e7in bu, Avrupa g\u00fcvenlik mimarisi de\u011fi\u015fiyor olsa da hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde harekete ge\u00e7emeyece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Bir sald\u0131r\u0131, koordinasyonsuz ve teredd\u00fctl\u00fc bir Avrupa ile de\u011fil, bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda da\u011f\u0131lmaktansa saflar\u0131 s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rma ihtimali daha y\u00fcksek olan bir ittifak sistemiyle kar\u015f\u0131lanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Siyasi fantezi yerine askeri ger\u00e7eklik<\/h3>\n<p>Rusya'n\u0131n ne kadar ileri gidebilece\u011fini - \u00f6rne\u011fin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir NATO \u00fclkesine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenleyerek - \u201etest edebilece\u011fi\u201c s\u0131k s\u0131k dile getirilir. Bu fikir askeri ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi hafife almaktad\u0131r. Her askeri ad\u0131m g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr, de\u011ferlendirilebilir ve siyasi olarak y\u00fckl\u00fcd\u00fcr. Risksiz bir test balonu yoktur.<\/p>\n<p>S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131 bile ABD birlikleri de dahil olmak \u00fczere b\u00fcy\u00fck bir asker sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyecektir. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden ele ge\u00e7irilebilece\u011finin garantisi olmaks\u0131z\u0131n t\u0131rmanma e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015f\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Askeri a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu bir oyun de\u011fil, y\u00fcksek riskli bir senaryodur.<\/p>\n<h3>N\u00fckleer cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k: konu\u015fulmayan temel<\/h3>\n<p>Konu her ne kadar tats\u0131z olsa da ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin bir par\u00e7as\u0131: NATO n\u00fckleer g\u00fcvenlikli bir ittifak. Rusya da \u00f6yle. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n do\u011frudan t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyen de tam olarak bu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n<p>Rusya ve NATO aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan bir askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak n\u00fckleer boyuta de\u011finecektir - ille de bir konu\u015flanma anlam\u0131nda de\u011fil, ama stratejik bir arka plan olarak. Bu ger\u00e7ek bile tek ba\u015f\u0131na t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil, dengeleyici bir etkiye sahiptir.<\/p>\n<p>Hi\u00e7bir rasyonel oyuncu b\u00f6yle bir riski hafife alamaz.<\/p>\n<h3>NATO sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 bir senaryo olarak neden bu kadar mant\u0131ks\u0131z?<\/h3>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu fakt\u00f6rleri bir araya getirdi\u011finizde ortaya net bir tablo \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bir NATO sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 siyasi, askeri ve ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan son derece maliyetli olacakt\u0131r<\/li>\n<li>Net bir stratejik kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamayacakt\u0131r<\/li>\n<li>Kontrol edilmesi neredeyse imkans\u0131z olan t\u0131rmanma zincirlerini tetikleyecektir<\/li>\n<li>ABD'nin rol\u00fc azalsa bile b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tepkiye yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu durum senaryoyu imkans\u0131z k\u0131lmaz, ancak son derece mant\u0131ks\u0131zd\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte tam da bu nedenle kamuoyundaki tart\u0131\u015fmalarda neredeyse apa\u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f gibi sunulmas\u0131 sorunludur. S\u00fcrekli olarak en k\u00f6t\u00fc durum senaryosunu tart\u0131\u015fanlar g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc daraltmakta ve akl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda siyaset yapmay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Korku analizin yerini tutmaz<\/h3>\n<p>Rusya'n\u0131n NATO \u00fclkelerine sald\u0131rman\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde oldu\u011fu fikri somut i\u015faretlerden ziyade belirsizlik, tarihsel refleksler ve siyasi retorikten besleniyor. Duygusal olarak \u00e7ekici oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in i\u015fe yar\u0131yor - stratejik olarak zorlay\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durum, ger\u00e7ek riskler ile siyasi dramatizasyon aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131m\u0131 daha da \u00f6nemli hale getirmektedir. Bu nedenle bir sonraki b\u00f6l\u00fcm, her zaman cevaps\u0131z kalm\u0131\u015f olan soruyu ele almaktad\u0131r:<\/p>\n<p>Rusya b\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131mdan ger\u00e7ekte ne gibi avantajlar elde edecektir ve maliyetler neden buna kar\u015f\u0131d\u0131r?<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>Siyasete g\u00fcven \u00fczerine g\u00fcncel anket<\/h3>\n<div class='bootstrap-yop yop-poll-mc'>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"basic-yop-poll-container\" style=\"background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; border-style:solid; border-color:#000000; border-radius:5px; padding:0px 5px;\" data-id=\"1\" data-temp=\"basic-pretty\" data-skin=\"square\" data-cscheme=\"blue\" data-cap=\"0\" data-access=\"guest\" data-tid=\"\" data-uid=\"4c129e6a43efaf846ba0d53785f3827a\" data-pid=\"4628\" data-resdet=\"votes-number,percentages\" data-show-results-to=\"guest\" data-show-results-moment=\"after-vote\" data-show-results-only=\"false\" data-show-message=\"true\" data-show-results-as=\"bar\" data-sort-results-by=\"as-defined\" data-sort-results-rule=\"asc\"data-is-ended=\"0\" data-percentages-decimals=\"2\" data-gdpr=\"no\" data-gdpr-sol=\"consent\" data-css=\"\" data-counter=\"0\" data-load-with=\"1\" data-notification-section=\"top\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"basic-inner\"><div class=\"basic-message hide\" style=\"border-left: 10px solid #008000; padding: 0px 10px;\" data-error=\"#ff0000\" data-success=\"#008000\"><p class=\"basic-message-text\" style=\"color:#000000; font-size:14px; font-weight:normal;\"><\/p><\/div><div class=\"basic-overlay hide\"><div class=\"basic-vote-options\"><\/div><div class=\"basic-preloader\"><div class=\"basic-windows8\"><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_1\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_2\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_3\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_4\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_5\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><form class=\"basic-form\" action=\"\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"_token\" value=\"3f8faf4d9c\" autocomplete=\"off\"><div class=\"basic-elements\"><div class=\"basic-element basic-question basic-question-text-vertical\" data-id=\"1\" data-uid=\"e1c82ea453cce3ab680fcba8bfb494a7\" data-type=\"question\" data-question-type=\"text\" data-required=\"yes\" data-allow-multiple=\"no\" data-min=\"1\" data-max=\"1\" data-display=\"vertical\" data-colnum=\"\" data-display-others=\"no\" data-others-color=\"\" data-others=\"\" data-others-max-chars=\"0\"><div class=\"basic-question-title\"><h5 style=\"color:#000000; font-size:16px; font-weight:normal; text-align:left;\">Almanya'da siyasete ve medyaya ne kadar g\u00fcveniyorsunuz?<\/h5><\/div><ul class=\"basic-answers\"><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"1\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"11\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[1]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[1]\" name=\"answer[1]\" value=\"1\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">\u00c7ok y\u00fcksek - Resmi kurumlara tamamen g\u00fcveniyorum<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"2\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"28\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[2]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[2]\" name=\"answer[1]\" value=\"2\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">Orta - Temkinliyim, ancak temelde \u015f\u00fcpheci de\u011filim<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"3\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"57\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[3]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[3]\" name=\"answer[1]\" value=\"3\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck - Bir\u00e7ok \u015feyi kendim kontrol ederim<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"4\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"256\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[4]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[4]\" name=\"answer[1]\" value=\"4\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">Neredeyse hi\u00e7 yok - pek \u00e7ok \u015feyin \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc veya sahnelenmi\u015f oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yorum<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-vote\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"button basic-vote-button\" role=\"button\" style=\"background:#027bb8; border:0px; border-style: solid; border-color:#1636f0; border-radius:5px; padding:10px 10px; color:#ffffff; font-size:14px; font-weight:normal;\">Oylama<\/a><\/div><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"trp-form-language\" value=\"tr\"\/><\/form><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Sloganlar yerine maliyetler: Rusya bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ne kaybedecek?<\/h2>\n<p>Siyasi tart\u0131\u015fmalarda insanlar genellikle niyetler hakk\u0131nda konu\u015fur, daha az s\u0131kl\u0131kla da sonu\u00e7lar hakk\u0131nda. \u00d6zellikle sava\u015f senaryolar\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda, moda s\u00f6zc\u00fckler ve ahlaki kesinlikler hakimdir. Ancak devletler sloganlara g\u00f6re de\u011fil -en az\u0131ndan uzun vadede- fayda-maliyet hesaplar\u0131na g\u00f6re hareket ederler. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu noktada akl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda bir soru sormakta fayda var: Rusya NATO \u00fclkelerine sald\u0131rmaya kadar varan bir t\u0131rmanma yoluna girerse ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olarak ne kaybeder?<\/p>\n<p>Cevap a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r ve kamuoyundaki tart\u0131\u015fmalarda genellikle g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilen hususlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Ekonomik izolasyon: bug\u00fcnk\u00fc seviye k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda zarars\u0131z olacakt\u0131r<\/h3>\n<p>Rusya halihaz\u0131rda geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bununla birlikte, \u00f6zellikle hammadde ihracat\u0131, alternatif sat\u0131\u015f pazarlar\u0131 ve kendi end\u00fcstriyel kapasiteleri nedeniyle ekonomik olarak hareket kabiliyetini korumaktad\u0131r. NATO ile do\u011frudan bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma durumunda neredeyse tamamen ortadan kalkacak olan da i\u015fte tam olarak bu kalan manevra alan\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bir NATO \u00fclkesine yap\u0131lacak bir sald\u0131r\u0131 kademeli bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f de\u011fil, niteliksel bir s\u0131\u00e7rama anlam\u0131na gelecektir: tam bir ekonomik izolasyon, kitlesel ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, Bat\u0131 ile kalan neredeyse t\u00fcm ticari ili\u015fkilerin kesilmesi - ve \u015fimdiye kadar daha tarafs\u0131z bir tutum benimseyen \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinde ciddi bir bask\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Hammadde a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zengin ancak teknolojik a\u00e7\u0131dan i\u015fbirli\u011fine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in bu ciddi bir darbe olacakt\u0131r. Modern sanayi, enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131, ula\u015f\u0131m, ileti\u015fim - bunlar\u0131n hepsi uluslararas\u0131 a\u011flara ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Sava\u015f bu a\u011flar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmez, aksine yok eder.<\/p>\n<h3>Stratejik g\u00fc\u00e7 yerine askeri a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yay\u0131lma<\/h3>\n<p>Askeri a\u00e7\u0131dan b\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m Rusya'y\u0131 \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck zorluklarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rakacakt\u0131r. Ukrayna'daki sava\u015f halihaz\u0131rda personel, malzeme ve lojistik a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli miktarda kaynak t\u00fcketmektedir. Olduk\u00e7a silahl\u0131 bir ittifakla ilave bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma bu y\u00fck\u00fc katlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu sadece silahlar ve birliklerle ilgili de\u011fil, uzun vadeli kabiliyetle ilgilidir. Askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fcnferit sald\u0131r\u0131larla de\u011fil, zaman i\u00e7inde geli\u015fir. Tedarik, bak\u0131m, e\u011fitim, yenileme - t\u00fcm bunlar paraya, insanlara ve siyasi istikrara mal olur.<\/p>\n<p>NATO ile b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma Rusya'y\u0131 ayn\u0131 anda bir\u00e7ok cephede askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye zorlayacakt\u0131r. Bu bir g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterisi de\u011fil, klasik bir a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 geni\u015fleme riskidir.<\/p>\n<h3>G\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilen bir fakt\u00f6r olarak i\u00e7 siyasi istikrar<\/h3>\n<p>Sava\u015flara sadece cephede de\u011fil, \u00fclke i\u00e7inde de karar verilir. Ekonomik y\u00fckler, kay\u0131plar, g\u00fcvensizlik - t\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n toplumlar \u00fczerinde etkisi vard\u0131r. Rusya, i\u00e7 gerilimleri olmayan uyumlu bir birim de\u011fildir. B\u00f6lgeler, elitler ve ekonomik \u00e7\u0131karlar b\u00fcy\u00fck farkl\u0131l\u0131klar g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u0131rmanan bir sava\u015f bu gerilimleri daha da artt\u0131racakt\u0131r. Kaynaklar\u0131 i\u00e7 siyasi kalk\u0131nmadan uzakla\u015ft\u0131racak, sosyal \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131racak ve devlet eylemlerinin me\u015fruiyeti \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle otoriter sistemler, kal\u0131c\u0131 istisnai durumlara de\u011fil, istikrara ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu perspektiften bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, itidal bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k de\u011fil, kendini koruman\u0131n bir bi\u00e7imidir.<\/p>\n<h3>Uluslararas\u0131 pozisyon: oyuncudan sorunlu vakaya<\/h3>\n<p>Rusya kendisini k\u00fcresel bir g\u00fc\u00e7, Do\u011fu ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131nda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir oyuncu ve \u00e7ok kutuplu bir d\u00fcnyada s\u00f6z sahibi olarak g\u00f6rmektedir. Ancak bu rol diplomatik, ekonomik ve siyasi olarak hareket kabiliyeti gerektirmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>NATO ile do\u011frudan bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma Rusya'y\u0131 farkl\u0131 bir kategoriye sokacakt\u0131r: \u015fekillendirici bir akt\u00f6rden kal\u0131c\u0131 bir sorun noktas\u0131na. Halihaz\u0131rda Bat\u0131'n\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131m politikas\u0131na belli bir mesafede duran pek \u00e7ok \u00fclke kendini yeniden konumland\u0131rmak zorunda kalacakt\u0131r. Cepheler net bir \u015fekilde \u00e7izildi\u011finde tarafs\u0131zl\u0131k daha da zorla\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Uluslararas\u0131 sistemde istikrara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in s\u00fcrekli t\u0131rmanma cazip bir ortak stat\u00fcs\u00fc de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<h3>M\u00fczakerelerde manevra alan\u0131n\u0131n kaybedilmesi<\/h3>\n<p>Genellikle g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilen bir husus da siyasi esnekli\u011fin kaybedilmesidir. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de olsa bir m\u00fczakere alan\u0131 vard\u0131r. T\u0131rmanman\u0131n her a\u015famas\u0131nda bu alanlar daral\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bir NATO \u00fclkesine yap\u0131lacak bir sald\u0131r\u0131 Rusya'y\u0131 sadece askeri a\u00e7\u0131dan de\u011fil diplomatik a\u00e7\u0131dan da k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r. Geri \u00e7ekilme daha zor, itibar kayb\u0131 daha olas\u0131, uzla\u015fma ise siyasi a\u00e7\u0131dan daha riskli hale gelecektir. \u0130\u015fte tam da bu nedenle stratejik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen oyuncular d\u00fczenli bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmayan ad\u0131mlardan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n<h3>Tan\u0131nabilir k\u00e2r yok<\/h3>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu kay\u0131plar\u0131 olas\u0131 kazan\u00e7larla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda, bilan\u00e7o \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede bo\u015f kal\u0131yor. B\u00f6lgesel kazan\u00e7lar m\u0131? Siyasi olarak pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ekonomik avantajlar? Tan\u0131nabilir de\u011fil. Stratejik g\u00fcvenlik? Tam tersi.<\/p>\n<p>Geriye kalan varsay\u0131msal bir g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterisidir - ancak istikrara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclemeyen g\u00fc\u00e7 k\u0131sa vadeli ve pahal\u0131d\u0131r. Uzun vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen devletler bu t\u00fcr stratejilerden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n<h3>\u015eeytanla\u015ft\u0131rma yerine rasyonellik<\/h3>\n<p>Bunlar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri Rus politikas\u0131n\u0131n hatalardan, risklerden ya da sorunlu kararlardan ar\u0131nm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Ancak rasyonalite tamamen g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilirse eylemlerinin anlaml\u0131 bir \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131klanamayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n<p>Rusya'y\u0131 sadece irrasyonel bir sald\u0131rgan olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek korkular\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor ama politikalar\u0131 de\u011fil. \u00d6te yandan maliyetleri, \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 ve s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduranlar daha farkl\u0131 bir tabloya ula\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte bu tablo, bir sonraki soruyu anlaml\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ortaya koyabilmek i\u00e7in gerekli: E\u011fer gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rmak bu kadar pahal\u0131ya mal oluyorsa, neden buna ra\u011fmen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme, m\u00fczakere ve hatta ekonomik i\u015fbirli\u011fi tekliflerinden bu kadar \u00e7ok s\u00f6z ediliyor? Bu bir sonraki b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn konusudur.<\/p>\n<h3>Askeri tart\u0131\u015fmalar ve toplumsal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/09\/askerli%cc%87k-hi%cc%87zmeti%cc%87ne-karsi-vi%cc%87cdani%cc%87-ret-aci%cc%87l-durumlarda-ne-yapilmali\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-2969\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/wehrpflicht-kriegsdienst-verweigern-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Zorunlu askerlik: askerlik hizmetini reddetmek\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/wehrpflicht-kriegsdienst-verweigern-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/wehrpflicht-kriegsdienst-verweigern-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/wehrpflicht-kriegsdienst-verweigern-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/wehrpflicht-kriegsdienst-verweigern-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/wehrpflicht-kriegsdienst-verweigern.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k, ittifaka sadakat ve stratejik istikrarla ilgili sorular g\u00fcnl\u00fck hayattan \u00e7ok uzak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bununla birlikte, vatanda\u015flar \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan etkileri olabilir - \u00f6rne\u011fin, hizmet bi\u00e7imleri veya olas\u0131 zorunlu askerlik hizmeti hakk\u0131nda yeniden tart\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda. Makalede <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/09\/askerli%cc%87k-hi%cc%87zmeti%cc%87ne-karsi-vi%cc%87cdani%cc%87-ret-aci%cc%87l-durumlarda-ne-yapilmali\/\"><em><strong>\u201eSava\u015fa uygunluk, zorunlu askerlik ve ret: acil bir durumda ne yapmal\u0131?\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/a> Dergi, tarihsel deneyimlere, tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan modellere ve politikac\u0131lar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fen g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131na nas\u0131l yan\u0131t vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131na \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutuyor. Makale, uluslararas\u0131 geli\u015fmelerin neden her zaman i\u00e7 politika kararlar\u0131yla sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor.<\/p>\n<h2>M\u00fczakere teklifleri, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ve gaz: genellikle g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilen seviye<\/h2>\n<p>Kamuoyu alg\u0131s\u0131nda Ukrayna'daki sava\u015f genellikle k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli retorik s\u00fckunet d\u00f6nemleriyle kesintiye u\u011frayan bir dizi askeri t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Kolayl\u0131kla g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lan \u015fey, paralel olarak var olan ve bug\u00fcn hala var olan ikinci bir d\u00fczeydir: diyalog teklifleri, m\u00fczakere bi\u00e7imleri ve ekonomik sinyaller d\u00fczeyi. Bu d\u00fczey, net dost-d\u00fc\u015fman \u015femalar\u0131na tam olarak uymuyor - tam da bu y\u00fczden genellikle sadece ge\u00e7erken bahsediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu seviyeye \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir \u015fekilde bakmak, herhangi bir \u015feyi g\u00f6recele\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in de\u011fil, daha eksiksiz bir resim elde etmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<h3>Gaz tedarikine devam etme teklifi<\/h3>\n<p>So\u00e7i'de d\u00fczenlenen uluslararas\u0131 Valdai Tart\u0131\u015fma Forumu'nda Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin, Kuzey Ak\u0131m 2 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flam kalan b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerinden Almanya'ya do\u011fal gaz tedarik etme teklifini yineledi. Rusya'n\u0131n y\u0131lda 27 milyar metrek\u00fcpe kadar ta\u015f\u0131ma yapmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu, ancak karar\u0131n Alman h\u00fck\u00fcmetine ait oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Almanya'n\u0131n do\u011fal gaz tedarikinin mevcut durumu hakk\u0131nda daha fazla bilgi edinmek isterseniz, ilgili bilgileri makalede bulabilirsiniz <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/almanyada-azalan-gaz-depolama-tekni%cc%87k-sinirlar-ve-si%cc%87yasi%cc%87-sonuclar\/\"><em><strong>\u201eAlmanya'da batan gaz depolama tesisleri: teknoloji, s\u0131n\u0131rlar ve siyasi sonu\u00e7lar\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_J0LsBg-i4tw\"><div id=\"lyte_J0LsBg-i4tw\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FJ0LsBg-i4tw%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/J0LsBg-i4tw\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FJ0LsBg-i4tw%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\nNORDSTREAM 2: Vladimir Putin Almanya'ya yeni gaz tedariki teklif ediyor |\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WELTVideoTV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">D\u00dcNYA<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Putin ayn\u0131 zamanda, kalan boru hatlar\u0131n\u0131n tahrip edilmesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak bir kez daha \u201euluslararas\u0131 ter\u00f6r eyleminden\u201c s\u00f6z etti ve farkl\u0131, bazen de \u00e7eli\u015fkili soru\u015fturma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na at\u0131fta bulundu. Putin ayr\u0131ca gaz\u0131n Ukrayna \u00fczerinden Avrupa'ya akmaya devam etti\u011fine ve her iki taraf\u0131n da bu ge\u00e7i\u015ften ekonomik fayda sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n<h3>Kuzey Ak\u0131m hakk\u0131nda arka plan ve a\u00e7\u0131k sorular<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/kuzey-akim-patlatma-sabotaj-guec-poli%cc%87ti%cc%87kasi-ve-rahatsiz-edi%cc%87ci%cc%87-acik-sorular\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-4445 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/nordstream-sprengung-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Kuzey Ak\u0131m patlatma\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/nordstream-sprengung-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/nordstream-sprengung-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/nordstream-sprengung-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/nordstream-sprengung.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Kuzey Ak\u0131m tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 enerji politikas\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha fazlas\u0131yla ilgili. Benim ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/kuzey-akim-patlatma-sabotaj-guec-poli%cc%87ti%cc%87kasi-ve-rahatsiz-edi%cc%87ci%cc%87-acik-sorular\/\"><strong>Boru hatt\u0131na ili\u015fkin arka plan makalesi<\/strong><\/a> y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131n k\u00f6kenleri, ekonomik \u00f6nemi, jeopolitik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak analiz edilmektedir. Odak noktas\u0131 arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi, ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar, Berlin ve Br\u00fcksel'deki siyasi kararlar ve Avrupa enerji piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in hangi senaryolar\u0131n ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sorusudur. Makale, mevcut olgular\u0131 bir araya getirmekte, farkl\u0131 bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 sunmakta ve son y\u0131llar\u0131n daha geni\u015f ba\u011flam\u0131nda mevcut a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n daha iyi kategorize edilmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>\u0130lk g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler: sembolik temaslardan daha fazlas\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>Rusya ve Ukrayna aras\u0131nda \u015eubat 2022'de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra Rus ve Ukraynal\u0131 heyetler aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bunlar ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta Belarus'ta ve daha sonra \u0130stanbul da dahil olmak \u00fczere \u00e7e\u015fitli formatlarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bunlar sadece kibar temaslar de\u011fil, somut taslak metinlerle yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f m\u00fczakerelerdi.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclen konular aras\u0131nda tarafs\u0131zl\u0131k, g\u00fcvenlik garantileri, toprak stat\u00fcs\u00fc meseleleri ve uluslararas\u0131 entegrasyon yer al\u0131yordu. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin nihayetinde ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011fu tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131zd\u0131r. Ancak, var olduklar\u0131 ve zaman zaman ciddi bir se\u00e7enek olarak de\u011ferlendirildikleri de ayn\u0131 derecede tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131zd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Burada bir ayr\u0131m yapmak \u00f6nemlidir: konu\u015fmaya istekli olmak bir anla\u015fmaya varmaya istekli olmak anlam\u0131na gelmez. Her iki taraf da bu turlara net, bazen de uzla\u015fmaz temel taleplerle girdi. Askeri s\u00fcre\u00e7, siyasi dinamikler ve uluslararas\u0131 etki fakt\u00f6rleri m\u00fczakere alan\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla daralmas\u0131na katk\u0131da bulundu.<\/p>\n<h3>M\u00fczakereler neden otomatik olarak bar\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na gelmez?<\/h3>\n<p>Pek \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015fmada, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00f6nerenlerin bar\u0131\u015f istedi\u011fi, reddedenlerin ise gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rmak istedi\u011fi dolayl\u0131 olarak varsay\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu denklem \u00e7ok basittir. M\u00fczakereler bir ara\u00e7t\u0131r, ama\u00e7 de\u011fil. Zaman kazanmak, pozisyonlar\u0131 test etmek ya da uluslararas\u0131 sinyaller g\u00f6ndermek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilirler.<\/p>\n<p>Rusya defalarca m\u00fczakere etmeye istekli oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015ftir - ancak her zaman Rusya'n\u0131n bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00fcvenlik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 veya b\u00f6lgesel ger\u00e7ekleri yans\u0131tmas\u0131 gereken ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda. Ukrayna ise egemenli\u011fini ya da toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak tehlikeye atacak hi\u00e7bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 kabul edemeyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ifade etmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>Her iki pozisyon da kendi i\u00e7inde anla\u015f\u0131labilir ve bu nedenle uzla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 zordur. Bu karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelen herkes \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 ahlaki sloganlara indirgemekte ve yap\u0131sal t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131 fark edememektedir.<\/p>\n<h3>2022 sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler: retorik mi yoksa ger\u00e7ek bir se\u00e7enek mi?<\/h3>\n<p>M\u00fczakerelerin ilk turlar\u0131 kesildikten sonra bile Rus liderli\u011fi, baz\u0131 durumlarda a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a Avrupal\u0131 oyuncularla veya ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu defalarca kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar Bat\u0131'da genellikle saf retorik, b\u00f6l\u00fcnme yaratma ya da sorumluluktan ka\u00e7ma \u00e7abas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak bu \u015f\u00fcphecilik payla\u015f\u0131lsa bile, s\u00f6ylenecek bir \u015fey kalm\u0131yor: G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme teklifi Rusya'n\u0131n ileti\u015fim stratejisinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131. Sadece Ukrayna'y\u0131 de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6zlemcileri, tarafs\u0131z devletleri ve Avrupa kamuoyunu da hedefliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu tek ba\u015f\u0131na onu inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lmaz - ancak sadece askeri hareketleri de\u011fil diplomatik sinyalleri de dikkate alan bir analiz i\u00e7in uygun hale getirir.<\/p>\n<h3>Siyasi bir sinyal olarak enerji<\/h3>\n<p>Bu ikili d\u00fczey \u00f6zellikle enerji politikas\u0131 alan\u0131nda belirginle\u015fti. B\u00fcy\u00fck siyasi gerilimlere ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara ra\u011fmen Rusya, Kuzey Ak\u0131m boru hatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sabotaj eylemlerinden sonra bile Avrupa'ya do\u011fal gaz tedarik etme konusundaki temel iste\u011fini defalarca vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Rusya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, ekonomik bir tekliften \u00e7ok daha fazlas\u0131yd\u0131. Enerji uzun zamand\u0131r Rusya ve Avrupa aras\u0131nda bir ba\u011flant\u0131 unsuru, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ve istikrar\u0131n bir sembol\u00fc olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Bu nedenle, \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde de olsa tedarik se\u00e7eneklerine ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k ayn\u0131 zamanda siyasi bir sinyaldi: siyasi irade mevcutsa i\u015fbirli\u011fi teknik olarak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak bu sinyal Avrupa taraf\u0131nda kas\u0131tl\u0131 olarak dikkate al\u0131nmad\u0131. Bunun pek \u00e7ok nedeni vard\u0131: temel siyasi kararlar, hukuki meseleler, g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesi ve ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak azaltma \u00e7abas\u0131. Bu reddedi\u015f en az teklifin kendisi kadar ger\u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n<p>Burada belirleyici olan kimin \u201ehakl\u0131\u201c oldu\u011fu de\u011fil, her iki d\u00fczeyin de paralel olarak var olmas\u0131d\u0131r: teklif ve bunu kabul etmeme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bilin\u00e7li karar.<\/p>\n<h3>Bu seviye neden genellikle g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilir?<\/h3>\n<p>M\u00fczakere ve i\u015fbirli\u011fi sinyallerinin kamusal tart\u0131\u015fmalarda genellikle yeterince temsil edilmemesinin nedenleri a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Net anlat\u0131lar\u0131 bozarlar. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 daha karma\u015f\u0131k, ahlaki a\u00e7\u0131dan daha az a\u00e7\u0131k ve ileti\u015fimi daha zor hale getirirler.<\/p>\n<p>Sava\u015f, durdurulamaz bir sald\u0131rganl\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrse a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 daha kolay olur. Diyalog teklifleri, \u00f6zellikle de sonu\u00e7 vermiyorlarsa, bu resme pek uymazlar. Kararl\u0131l\u0131k ve azmin vurguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir anlat\u0131da g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrler.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak tam da burada analitik bir sorun yat\u0131yor: sadece askeri t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa bakanlar siyasi hareketleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediyor.<\/p>\n<h3>2022'den bu yana m\u00fczakere teklifleri ve diyalog formatlar\u0131<\/h3>\n<div style=\"overflow-x: auto;\">\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background-color: #f0f0f0;\">\n<th>D\u00f6nem<\/th>\n<th>Teklif \/ Format<\/th>\n<th>Rus pozisyonu<\/th>\n<th>Sonu\u00e7 \/ Tepki<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>\u015eubat-Mart 2022<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>Do\u011frudan aramalar (Belarus)<\/td>\n<td>Tarafs\u0131zl\u0131k ve g\u00fcvenlik garantilerini m\u00fczakere etme iste\u011fi<\/td>\n<td>G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonu\u00e7suz kald\u0131, askeri durum dinamikleri de\u011fi\u015ftirdi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Mart-Nisan 2022<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>\u0130stanbul'da M\u00fczakereler<\/td>\n<td>Ukrayna'n\u0131n tarafs\u0131z stat\u00fcs\u00fc, g\u00fcvenlik garantileri, a\u00e7\u0131k toprak sorunlar\u0131<\/td>\n<td>Anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamad\u0131, m\u00fczakereler daha sonra iptal edildi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>2023-2024<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>Kamu diyalo\u011fu \u015funlar\u0131 sunar<\/td>\n<td>\u201eGer\u00e7ek ko\u015fullar temelinde\u201c konu\u015fma iste\u011fi\u201c<\/td>\n<td>Ukrayna ve Bat\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilemez olarak de\u011ferlendirildi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>2024-2025<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>Avrupa \/ ABD y\u00f6n\u00fcnde sinyaller<\/td>\n<td>Bat\u0131l\u0131 oyuncularla diyalo\u011fa haz\u0131r olundu\u011fu da vurguland\u0131<\/td>\n<td>Yeni resmi m\u00fczakere formatlar\u0131 yok<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<h3>Enerji ve gaz teklifleri ile siyasi kararlar<\/h3>\n<div style=\"overflow-x: auto;\">\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background-color: #f0f0f0;\">\n<th>D\u00f6nem<\/th>\n<th>Rus sinyali<\/th>\n<th>Avrupa'n\u0131n tepkisi<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Sonbahar 2022<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>Kullan\u0131labilir Kuzey Ak\u0131m 2 boru hatt\u0131na referans<\/td>\n<td>Siyasi ret, sertifika ask\u0131ya al\u0131nd\u0131<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>2023<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>Kalan hat \u00fczerinden teslimat kabiliyetine ili\u015fkin yenilenen a\u00e7\u0131klama<\/td>\n<td>Kullan\u0131m yok, \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmeye odaklan\u0131n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>2024-2025<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>Teslimat i\u00e7in temel haz\u0131rl\u0131k vurguland\u0131<\/td>\n<td>Rus gaz\u0131ndan stratejik \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f teyit edildi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<h3>Teklifler bar\u0131\u015f arzusunun kan\u0131t\u0131 de\u011fildir<\/h3>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 zamanda, diyalog veya enerji tekliflerinden otomatik olarak bar\u0131\u015f arzusu sonucunu \u00e7\u0131karmak da ayn\u0131 derecede dar g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fl\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olacakt\u0131r. Teklifler taktiksel ama\u00e7l\u0131 olabilir, zaman kazanmay\u0131 ya da uluslararas\u0131 alg\u0131lar\u0131 etkilemeyi ama\u00e7layabilir. Ciddi ya da ara\u00e7sal olabilirler. Ciddi bir analiz bu karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa dayanabilir. Teklifleri idealize etmeden tan\u0131mlar. Reddedilen teklifleri ahlakile\u015ftirmeden tan\u0131mlar.<\/p>\n<p>Bu m\u00fczakere ve i\u015fbirli\u011fi sinyallerinin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 her \u015feyden \u00f6nce bir \u015feyi g\u00f6stermektedir: \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma tek boyutlu de\u011fildir. Bu sadece askeri bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma de\u011fil, g\u00fcvenlik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131, siyasi ileti\u015fim, ekonomik ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar ve tarihsel yorumlardan olu\u015fan karma\u015f\u0131k bir a\u011fd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Belirli anlat\u0131lar\u0131n neden tutundu\u011funu ve di\u011ferlerinin neden g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edildi\u011fini anlamak isteyen herkes bu seviyeden ka\u00e7\u0131namaz. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n neden basit\u00e7e \u201eka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz\u201c ya da \u201ealternatifsiz\u201c kategorilerine s\u0131\u011fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klar.<\/p>\n<p>Ve bir sonraki soruya zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor: Buna ra\u011fmen baz\u0131 anlat\u0131lar neden bu kadar inatla devam ediyor ve siyasi olarak kime fayda sa\u011fl\u0131yor? Bu, bir sonraki b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn konusudur.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"display-post-types\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">\n\t\t\t#dpt-wrapper-912 { --dpt-text-align: left;--dpt-image-crop: center;--dpt-border-radius: 5px;--dpt-h-gutter: 10px;--dpt-v-gutter: 10px; }\t\t\t<\/style>\n\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">#dpt-wrapper-912 { --dpt-title-font-style:normal;--dpt-title-font-weight:600;--dpt-title-line-height:1.5;--dpt-title-text-decoration:none;--dpt-title-text-transform:none;--dpt-excerpt-font-style:normal;--dpt-excerpt-font-weight:400;--dpt-excerpt-line-height:1.5;--dpt-excerpt-text-decoration:none;--dpt-excerpt-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta1-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta1-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta1-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta1-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta1-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta2-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta2-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta2-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta2-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta2-text-transform:none; }<\/style><div class=\"dpt-main-header\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-main-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dpt-main-title-text\">Almanya hakk\u0131nda g\u00fcncel makaleler<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div id=\"dpt-wrapper-912\" class=\"dpt-wrapper dpt-list2 land1 dpt-cropped dpt-flex-wrap\" >\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"russland, nato und die angst vor dem krieg: was sich belegen l\u00e4sst &#8211; und was nicht\" data-id=\"4801\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft\" data-post_tag=\"deutschland energiepolitik eu-gesetze europa geopolitik krisen meinungsfreiheit sicherheitspolitik\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/rusya-nato-ve-savas-korkusu-ne-kanitlanabi%cc%87li%cc%87r-ne-kanitlanamaz\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Rusya, NATO ve sava\u015f korkusu: Neyin kan\u0131tlanabilece\u011fi - neyin kan\u0131tlanamayaca\u011f\u0131<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"NATO, Rusya ve sava\u015f korkusu\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/rusya-nato-ve-savas-korkusu-ne-kanitlanabi%cc%87li%cc%87r-ne-kanitlanamaz\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Rusya, NATO ve sava\u015f korkusu: Neyin kan\u0131tlanabilece\u011fi - neyin kan\u0131tlanamayaca\u011f\u0131<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"europa zwischen meinungsfreiheit und regulierung: neues us-infoportal wirft fragen auf\" data-id=\"5102\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft\" data-post_tag=\"denkmodelle deutschland eu-gesetze europa geopolitik krisen meinungsfreiheit spieltheorie\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/i%cc%87fade-oezguerluegue-ve-duezenleme-arasinda-kalan-avrupa-yeni%cc%87-abd-bi%cc%87lgi%cc%87-portali-sorulari-guendeme-geti%cc%87ri%cc%87yor\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u0130fade \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve d\u00fczenleme aras\u0131nda Avrupa: Yeni ABD bilgi portal\u0131 soru i\u015faretleri yarat\u0131yor<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"AB sans\u00fcr\u00fc, nefret s\u00f6ylemi ve yeni ABD portal\u0131\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/EU-Hatespeech-US-Portal.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/EU-Hatespeech-US-Portal.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/EU-Hatespeech-US-Portal-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/EU-Hatespeech-US-Portal-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/EU-Hatespeech-US-Portal-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/i%cc%87fade-oezguerluegue-ve-duezenleme-arasinda-kalan-avrupa-yeni%cc%87-abd-bi%cc%87lgi%cc%87-portali-sorulari-guendeme-geti%cc%87ri%cc%87yor\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">\u0130fade \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve d\u00fczenleme aras\u0131nda Avrupa: Yeni ABD bilgi portal\u0131 soru i\u015faretleri yarat\u0131yor<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"energie, macht und abh\u00e4ngigkeit: europas weg vom exportweltmeister zum nachfrager\" data-id=\"4945\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft\" data-post_tag=\"denkmodelle deutschland energiepolitik eu-gesetze europa geopolitik krisen meinungsfreiheit sicherheitspolitik\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/enerji%cc%87-guecue-ve-bagimliligi-avrupanin-duenya-i%cc%87hracat-sampi%cc%87yonlugundan-tueketi%cc%87ci%cc%87li%cc%87ge-geci%cc%87si%cc%87\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Enerji, g\u00fc\u00e7 ve ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k: Avrupa'n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ihracat \u015fampiyonlu\u011fundan t\u00fcketicili\u011fe giden yolu<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Avrupa ve enerji\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Europa-Energie.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Europa-Energie.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Europa-Energie-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Europa-Energie-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Europa-Energie-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/enerji%cc%87-guecue-ve-bagimliligi-avrupanin-duenya-i%cc%87hracat-sampi%cc%87yonlugundan-tueketi%cc%87ci%cc%87li%cc%87ge-geci%cc%87si%cc%87\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Enerji, g\u00fc\u00e7 ve ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k: Avrupa'n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ihracat \u015fampiyonlu\u011fundan t\u00fcketicili\u011fe giden yolu<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"vom ende der wehrpflicht bis zu schulstreiks: die neue debatte \u00fcber bundeswehr und bildung\" data-id=\"5147\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft\" data-post_tag=\"deutschland europa geopolitik krisen meinungsfreiheit sicherheitspolitik\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/zorunlu-askerli%cc%87gi%cc%87n-sona-ermesi%cc%87nden-okul-grevleri%cc%87ne-alman-si%cc%87lahli-kuvvetleri%cc%87-ve-egi%cc%87ti%cc%87m-uezeri%cc%87ne-yeni%cc%87-tartismalar\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Zorunlu askerli\u011fin sona ermesinden okul grevlerine: Bundeswehr ve e\u011fitim \u00fczerine yeni tart\u0131\u015fma<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Okullarda zorunlu askerlik hizmeti ve Bundeswehr ile ilgili okul grevleri\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Wehrpflicht-Schulstreiks.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Wehrpflicht-Schulstreiks.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Wehrpflicht-Schulstreiks-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Wehrpflicht-Schulstreiks-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Wehrpflicht-Schulstreiks-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/zorunlu-askerli%cc%87gi%cc%87n-sona-ermesi%cc%87nden-okul-grevleri%cc%87ne-alman-si%cc%87lahli-kuvvetleri%cc%87-ve-egi%cc%87ti%cc%87m-uezeri%cc%87ne-yeni%cc%87-tartismalar\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Zorunlu askerli\u011fin sona ermesinden okul grevlerine: Bundeswehr ve e\u011fitim \u00fczerine yeni tart\u0131\u015fma<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Bu anlat\u0131lar neden bu kadar etkili - ve bunlardan kim yararlan\u0131yor<\/h2>\n<p>\u0130fadeler, \u00e7\u0131karlar, maliyetler ve alternatifler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funa g\u00f6re, geriye genel anlay\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan bir soru kal\u0131yor: Yak\u0131ndan incelendi\u011finde sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir deste\u011fe sahip olmalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, neden baz\u0131 anlat\u0131lar bu kadar inatla devam ediyor?<\/p>\n<p>Bu sorunun cevab\u0131 tek tek olgulardan ziyade anlat\u0131lar\u0131n kendi i\u015flevlerinde yatmaktad\u0131r. Ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131r, karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 basitle\u015ftirir ve y\u00f6nlendirme sa\u011flarlar - \u00f6zellikle de belirsiz zamanlarda.<\/p>\n<h3>Siyasi bir g\u00fc\u00e7lendirici olarak korku<\/h3>\n<p>Varolu\u015fsal tehditlerle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan anlat\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6zel bir etkisi vard\u0131r. Dikkat \u00e7eker, duygulara odaklan\u0131r ve karar alma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini k\u0131salt\u0131rlar. Korku bir tesad\u00fcf de\u011fil, etkili bir siyasi fakt\u00f6rd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Rusya'n\u0131n Avrupa'ya yak\u0131n bir zamanda sald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 fikri, k\u00f6kl\u00fc tarihi hat\u0131ralarla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. Kolektif koruma reflekslerini ve ahlaki kesinlikleri harekete ge\u00e7irir. B\u00f6yle bir iklimde \u00e7eli\u015fki h\u0131zla \u00f6nemsizle\u015ftirme, farkl\u0131la\u015fma ise risk olarak alg\u0131lan\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durum siyasi akt\u00f6rler i\u00e7in faydal\u0131 olabilir. Karma\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131, alternatifleri yokmu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrse daha kolay iletilebilir. En k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryonun s\u00fcrekli g\u00fcndemde tutulmas\u0131 n\u00fcanslara olan talebi azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Medya mant\u0131\u011f\u0131: kategorizasyon yerine basitle\u015ftirme<\/h3>\n<p>Medya da bu t\u00fcr anlat\u0131lar\u0131n istikrar\u0131na katk\u0131da bulunur - ille de k\u00f6t\u00fc niyetle de\u011fil, yap\u0131sal nedenlerle. Karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 iletmek zordur, \u00f6zellikle de zaman bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Net z\u0131tl\u0131klar, ki\u015fiselle\u015ftirilmi\u015f tehditler ve tan\u0131nabilir modellerin iletilmesi daha kolayd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eEmperyal Rusya\u201c anlat\u0131s\u0131 tam da bunu sunuyor: tan\u0131d\u0131k bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve, net roller ve sezgisel bir dramaturji. Asker hareketlerinden diplomatik a\u00e7\u0131klamalara kadar farkl\u0131 olaylar\u0131n ortak bir yorum \u015femsiyesi alt\u0131nda bir araya getirilmesini sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te kaybolan \u015fey, siyasi ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin i\u00e7 \u00e7eli\u015fkileridir. Ancak bu \u00e7eli\u015fkileri anlatmak, tutarl\u0131 bir tehdit tablosu \u00e7izmekten daha zordur.<\/p>\n<h3>G\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 ve me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rma<\/h3>\n<p>Anlat\u0131lar ayn\u0131 zamanda me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir i\u015flevi de yerine getirir. Silahlanma, b\u00fct\u00e7e kararlar\u0131, stratejik yeniden y\u00f6nlendirmeler - bunlar\u0131n hepsi kamuoyunun kabul\u00fcn\u00fc gerektirir. Alg\u0131lanan tehdit ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fckse, a\u00e7\u0131klama ihtiyac\u0131 da o kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olur.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 tedbirlerinin temelde yanl\u0131\u015f ya da gereksiz oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmez. Ancak, gerek\u00e7elerinin genellikle fiili durumun izin verdi\u011finden daha az farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n<p>S\u00fcrekli bir tehdit s\u00f6ylemi manevra alan\u0131 yarat\u0131r - ve ayn\u0131 zamanda di\u011ferlerini d\u0131\u015flar.<\/p>\n<h3>Analizin yerine ge\u00e7en ahlaki netlik<\/h3>\n<p>Bir di\u011fer husus ise ahlaki niteliktedir. Anlat\u0131lar sadece y\u00f6nlendirme de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00f6zg\u00fcven de sa\u011flar. \u201eDo\u011fru tarafta\u201c olduklar\u0131na inananlar\u0131n daha az soru sormas\u0131, olaylar\u0131 daha az tartmas\u0131 ve daha az \u015f\u00fcphe duymas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ahlaki netlik \u00f6zellikle \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma zamanlar\u0131nda \u00e7ekicidir. \u00dczerinizdeki bask\u0131y\u0131 kald\u0131r\u0131r. Analizin yerini tutum al\u0131r. Ancak tehlike de tam olarak burada yatmaktad\u0131r: ahlaki kesinlik, rahats\u0131z edici ger\u00e7eklerin g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmesine ya da \u00f6nemsiz g\u00f6r\u00fclerek reddedilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma art\u0131k anla\u015f\u0131lmaz, daha ziyade de\u011ferlendirilir. Bu duygusal olarak tatmin edici olabilir, ancak karma\u015f\u0131k sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcnde pek yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmaz.<\/p>\n<h3>Tekrar\u0131n i\u015flevi<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/propaganda-tari%cc%87hi%cc%87-yoentemleri%cc%87-modern-formlar-ve-bunlarin-nasil-taninacagi\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-4233 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Propaganda nedir?\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Anlat\u0131lar tekrar yoluyla peki\u015ftirilir. Belirli ifadeler ne kadar s\u0131k ve biraz farkl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde ortaya \u00e7\u0131karsa, o kadar do\u011fal g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrler. Bir noktadan sonra art\u0131k sorgulanmaz, kan\u0131ksan\u0131r hale gelirler.<\/p>\n<p>Bu da farkl\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelerin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 gereken yorumlay\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve yarat\u0131yor - anlat\u0131n\u0131n kendisinin de\u011fil. Rusya'n\u0131n neden bir NATO \u00fclkesine sald\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini soran herkes kendini hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karma bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131na giriyor. Bu soruyu sormayanlar ise ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i kabul ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130spat y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn bu \u015fekilde tersine \u00e7evrilmesi, istikrarl\u0131 anlat\u0131lar\u0131n tipik bir \u00f6zelli\u011fidir. Tekrarlama ve propaganda hakk\u0131nda daha fazla bilgi edinmek isterseniz, \u201e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/propaganda-tari%cc%87hi%cc%87-yoentemleri%cc%87-modern-formlar-ve-bunlarin-nasil-taninacagi\/\"><em><strong>Propaganda - tarih\u00e7e, y\u00f6ntemler, modern bi\u00e7imler ve bunlar\u0131n nas\u0131l tan\u0131naca\u011f\u0131<\/strong><\/em><\/a>\u201c.<\/p>\n<h3>Bir risk olarak sadele\u015ftirme<\/h3>\n<p>Bu t\u00fcr hikayelerle ilgili sorun, tamamen havadan uydurulmu\u015f olmalar\u0131 de\u011fildir. Sorun, \u00e7ok fazla \u015fey a\u00e7\u0131klamak istemeleri ve bunu yaparken de esaslar\u0131 gizlemelerinde yatmaktad\u0131r. Akt\u00f6rleri rollere, g\u00fcd\u00fcleri moda s\u00f6zc\u00fcklere, gelece\u011fi senaryolara indirgiyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131nda bu riskli olabilir. Yanl\u0131\u015f alg\u0131lamalar, yanl\u0131\u015f anlamalar ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepkiler genellikle karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n hafife al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumlarda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla anlat\u0131lara \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir bak\u0131\u015f kendi ba\u015f\u0131na bir ama\u00e7 de\u011fil, istikrara bir katk\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Uyan\u0131kl\u0131k ve yans\u0131tma aras\u0131nda<\/h3>\n<p>Otoriter devletlere kar\u015f\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 olmak hakl\u0131d\u0131r. Tahminler de\u011fil. Aradaki fark, tan\u0131d\u0131k gelseler bile varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 irdeleme iste\u011finde yatmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Anlat\u0131lar kendi ba\u015flar\u0131na yanl\u0131\u015f de\u011fildir. Ancak bunlar birer ara\u00e7t\u0131r. Ve ara\u00e7lar, analizin fark edilmeyen bir ikamesi olarak de\u011fil, bilin\u00e7li bir \u015fekilde kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Bu kategorizasyon neden gereklidir?<\/h3>\n<p>Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm herhangi bir g\u00fcd\u00fcy\u00fc itham etmeyi ya da herhangi bir akt\u00f6r\u00fc gayrime\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamamaktad\u0131r. Sadece siyasi ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin sadece olgulardan de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda olgularla ilgili hikayelerden de olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6stermeyi ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu anlat\u0131lar\u0131n fark\u0131na varanlar mesafe kazan\u0131r. Ve bu mesafe, yarg\u0131da bulunabilmek i\u00e7in bir \u00f6n ko\u015fuldur.<\/p>\n<p>Bu nedenle bir sonraki b\u00f6l\u00fcm, yeni bir anlat\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in de\u011fil, \u015f\u00fcphecilik ve safl\u0131k aras\u0131nda uygulanabilir bir ara denge olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in \u015fimdiye kadar yap\u0131lan g\u00f6zlemleri bir araya getirmekle ilgilidir.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>Almanya'da olas\u0131 bir gerilim vakas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncel ara\u015ft\u0131rma<\/h3>\n<div class='bootstrap-yop yop-poll-mc'>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"basic-yop-poll-container\" style=\"background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; border-style:solid; border-color:#000000; border-radius:5px; padding:0px 5px;\" data-id=\"6\" data-temp=\"basic-pretty\" data-skin=\"square\" data-cscheme=\"blue\" data-cap=\"0\" data-access=\"guest\" data-tid=\"\" data-uid=\"e9c9cfef9f8dd5690ee71efd294fe4d2\" data-pid=\"5147\" data-resdet=\"votes-number,percentages\" data-show-results-to=\"guest\" data-show-results-moment=\"after-vote\" data-show-results-only=\"false\" data-show-message=\"true\" data-show-results-as=\"bar\" data-sort-results-by=\"as-defined\" data-sort-results-rule=\"asc\"data-is-ended=\"0\" data-percentages-decimals=\"2\" data-gdpr=\"no\" data-gdpr-sol=\"consent\" data-css=\".basic-yop-poll-container[data-uid] .basic-vote {\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\ttext-align: center;\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t}\" data-counter=\"0\" data-load-with=\"1\" data-notification-section=\"top\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"basic-inner\"><div class=\"basic-message hide\" style=\"border-left: 10px solid #008000; padding: 0px 10px;\" data-error=\"#ff0000\" data-success=\"#008000\"><p class=\"basic-message-text\" style=\"color:#000000; font-size:14px; font-weight:normal;\"><\/p><\/div><div class=\"basic-overlay hide\"><div class=\"basic-vote-options\"><\/div><div class=\"basic-preloader\"><div class=\"basic-windows8\"><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_1\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_2\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_3\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_4\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_5\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><form class=\"basic-form\" action=\"\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"_token\" value=\"305ab0d569\" autocomplete=\"off\"><div class=\"basic-elements\"><div class=\"basic-element basic-question basic-question-text-vertical\" data-id=\"6\" data-uid=\"89ed058e591fd244e1653bfadaaa3030\" data-type=\"question\" data-question-type=\"text\" data-required=\"yes\" data-allow-multiple=\"no\" data-min=\"1\" data-max=\"7\" data-display=\"vertical\" data-colnum=\"\" data-display-others=\"no\" data-others-color=\"\" data-others=\"\" data-others-max-chars=\"0\"><div class=\"basic-question-title\"><h5 style=\"color:#000000; font-size:16px; font-weight:normal; text-align:left;\">Olas\u0131 bir gerilim durumuna (\u00f6rne\u011fin kriz veya sava\u015f) ki\u015fisel olarak ne kadar haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 hissediyorsunuz?<\/h5><\/div><ul class=\"basic-answers\"><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"24\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"19\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[24]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[24]\" name=\"answer[6]\" value=\"24\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">\u00c7ok iyi - Malzemelerim, bilgim ve bir plan\u0131m var<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"25\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"37\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[25]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[25]\" name=\"answer[6]\" value=\"25\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">Olduk\u00e7a iyi - biraz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcm<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"26\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"61\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[26]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[26]\" name=\"answer[6]\" value=\"26\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">Pek say\u0131lmaz - umar\u0131m hi\u00e7bir \u015fey olmaz<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"27\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"14\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[27]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[27]\" name=\"answer[6]\" value=\"27\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">Hi\u00e7 de de\u011fil - konuyu kas\u0131tl\u0131 olarak bast\u0131r\u0131yorum<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"28\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"17\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[28]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[28]\" name=\"answer[6]\" value=\"28\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">\"Voltaj d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\" nedir ki zaten?<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-vote\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"button basic-vote-button\" role=\"button\" style=\"background:#027bb8; border:0px; border-style: solid; border-color:#000000; border-radius:5px; padding:10px 10px; color:#ffffff; font-size:14px; font-weight:normal;\">Oylama<\/a><\/div><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"trp-form-language\" value=\"tr\"\/><\/form><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\u015e\u00fcphecilik ve safl\u0131k aras\u0131nda: bundan ne sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131karabiliriz<\/h2>\n<p>A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131, maliyetleri, t\u0131rmanma mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve siyasi s\u00f6ylemleri analiz ettikten sonra, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak bundan ne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 sorusu ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Basit bir cevap anlam\u0131nda de\u011fil ama diren\u00e7li bir tutum anlam\u0131nda. Sonu\u00e7ta, karma\u015f\u0131k \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda ahlaki kesinlik ya da alayc\u0131 kay\u0131ts\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa raz\u0131 olmak \u00f6zellikle caziptir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kisi de yetersiz kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Ciddi bir sonu\u00e7 bu kutuplar aras\u0131nda hareket eder: \u015f\u00fcphecilik ve safl\u0131k aras\u0131nda.<\/p>\n<h3>\u015e\u00fcphecilik her \u015feye g\u00fcvensizlik de\u011fildir<\/h3>\n<p>\u015e\u00fcphecilik, her \u015feyi temelden sorgulamak ya da her ifadenin propaganda oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek anlam\u0131na gelmez. \u0130ddialar\u0131 incelemek, ba\u011flamlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmak ve \u00e7eli\u015fkilere katlanmak anlam\u0131na gelir. \u015e\u00fcphecilik sadece d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda i\u00e7eriye - ki\u015finin kendi varsay\u0131mlar\u0131na, kabullerine ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131na da y\u00f6neliktir.<\/p>\n<p>Rusya ile ilgili olarak bu, ne Rusya'n\u0131n her a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru ne de Bat\u0131'n\u0131n her yorumunun apa\u00e7\u0131k kabul edilmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Rus politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar odakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu kabul edebiliriz - ve ayn\u0131 zamanda hedefleri hakk\u0131ndaki yayg\u0131n at\u0131flar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funun analitik olarak zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu da not edebiliriz.<\/p>\n<h3>\u015e\u00fcphecilik abart\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 korur, sorumlulu\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/h3>\n<p>Safl\u0131k kendini safl\u0131ktan ziyade basitle\u015ftirmede g\u00f6sterir. Uluslararas\u0131 politikan\u0131n net ahlaki \u00e7izgiler izledi\u011fine inanan herkes ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi hafife al\u0131yor demektir. Devletler insanlar gibi davranmazlar, do\u011frusal bir \u015fekilde tepki vermezler ve nadiren tek bir hedefin pe\u015finden giderler.<\/p>\n<p>M\u00fczakerelere inanmak safl\u0131k de\u011fildir. Onlar\u0131 basit bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olarak g\u00f6rmek safl\u0131kt\u0131r. Her g\u00fcvenlik \u00f6nlemini bir provokasyon ya da her gerilimi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak yorumlamak da ayn\u0131 derecede safl\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte tam da bu nedenle tam tersi bir u\u00e7 noktaya gitmemek \u00f6nemlidir: Endi\u015fe verici s\u00f6ylemlerin ele\u015ftirilmesi, ger\u00e7ek \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n \u00f6nemsizle\u015ftirilmesine yol a\u00e7mamal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Rusya neyle su\u00e7lanmamal\u0131d\u0131r?<\/h3>\n<p>\u00d6nceki b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerden net bir \u00e7izgi \u00e7izilebilir. Rusya'n\u0131n NATO topraklar\u0131nda geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir askeri yay\u0131lma plan\u0131 pe\u015finde oldu\u011funa veya Sovyetler Birli\u011fi'ni b\u00f6lgesel anlamda yeniden kurmak istedi\u011fine dair g\u00fcvenilir bir kan\u0131t yoktur. Bu varsay\u0131m s\u0131k s\u0131k tekrarlanmakta, ancak nadiren do\u011frulanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Putin'in konu\u015fmalar\u0131ndan ya da Rusya'n\u0131n fayda-maliyet durumundan b\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131ma y\u00f6nelik rasyonel bir \u00e7\u0131kar da \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lamaz. Riskler potansiyel kazan\u0131mlardan \u00e7ok daha a\u011f\u0131r basmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ifade Rus politikas\u0131n\u0131n temize \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 de\u011fil, analitik bir s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Yine de Rusya'ya g\u00fcvenmek gerekir<\/h3>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 zamanda bu s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmadan genel bir tehlikesizlik sonucu \u00e7\u0131karmak da d\u00fcr\u00fcst olmayacakt\u0131r. Rusya, \u00f6zellikle yak\u0131n \u00e7evresinde a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a tan\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131karlar pe\u015finde ko\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Bu \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n varolu\u015fsal oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc takdirde bunlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanarak savunmaya haz\u0131rd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durum her \u015feyden \u00f6nce etki alanlar\u0131, g\u00fcvenlik mimarisi ve kom\u015fu devletlerin siyasi y\u00f6nelimleri gibi konular i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erlidir. Bu tutum sorunlu, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma e\u011filimli ve ilgili \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a risklidir.<\/p>\n<h3>\u015e\u00fcphecilik ayn\u0131 zamanda bu taraf\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmemek anlam\u0131na da gelir.<\/h3>\n<p>Bu makalenin temel analitik noktas\u0131 etki ve yay\u0131lma aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131md\u0131r. Etki, s\u0131n\u0131rlar de\u011fi\u015fmeden siyasi, ekonomik veya askeri olarak uygulanabilir. \u00d6te yandan geni\u015fleme, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan t\u00fcm y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerle birlikte kal\u0131c\u0131 toprak de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu seviyeler birbirine kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bir\u00e7ok yanl\u0131\u015f anlama ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Her t\u00fcrl\u00fc etki \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 otomatik olarak geni\u015flemenin habercisi olarak yorumlayanlar ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak tela\u015fl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lara ula\u015f\u0131rlar. Tersine, etki iddialar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelenler \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ger\u00e7ek nedenlerini tan\u0131makta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olurlar.<\/p>\n<p>Ciddi analizler bu ayr\u0131m\u0131 s\u00fcrekli olarak g\u00f6zetmektedir.<\/p>\n<h3>Farkl\u0131la\u015fma neden bir l\u00fcks de\u011fildir?<\/h3>\n<p>Hararetli tart\u0131\u015fmalarda farkl\u0131la\u015fma genellikle bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Ancak d\u0131\u015f politika ve g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131nda, harekete ge\u00e7me kabiliyeti i\u00e7in bir \u00f6n ko\u015fuldur. Yanl\u0131\u015f alg\u0131lamalar tehlikelidir - sadece yanl\u0131\u015f kararlar\u0131 destekledikleri i\u00e7in de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda t\u0131rmanma dinamiklerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebildikleri i\u00e7in de.<\/p>\n<p>Sadece irrasyonel bir sald\u0131rgan olarak alg\u0131lanan bir rakip, gerilimin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok az alan b\u0131rak\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, rasyonellik zarars\u0131zl\u0131k ile kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmamal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu denge rahats\u0131z edici ama gerekli.<\/p>\n<h3>Bundan \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7 - \u00e7ok pratik<\/h3>\n<p>Bu nedenle, \u00f6nceki b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerden \u00e7\u0131kan ciddi bir sonu\u00e7 \u015fudur:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Teyakkuz mant\u0131kl\u0131d\u0131r, alarmizm de\u011fil.<\/li>\n<li>Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir, dramatizasyon sa\u011flayamaz.<\/li>\n<li>M\u00fczakereler bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015fareti de\u011fildir, ancak bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n da garantisi de\u011fildir.<\/li>\n<li>Anlat\u0131lar y\u00f6nlendirme sa\u011flayabilir - ancak analizin yerini almamal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu tutum net sloganlardan daha az dikkat \u00e7ekicidir. Tweet atmak daha zordur, slogan atmak daha zordur ve ahlak dersi vermek daha zordur. Ancak daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirdir.<\/p>\n<h3>Zihinsel disiplin i\u00e7in bir \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>\u015e\u00fcphecilik ve safl\u0131k aras\u0131nda, siyasi tart\u0131\u015fmalarda nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir \u015fey yatmaktad\u0131r: entelekt\u00fcel disiplin. Korku taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendirilmeme iste\u011fi. Ayn\u0131 anda birden fazla d\u00fczeyi g\u00f6rebilme yetene\u011fi. Ve kendini bir kar\u015f\u0131 anlat\u0131ya teslim etmeden basit anlat\u0131lar\u0131 sorgulama cesareti.<\/p>\n<p>Bu tutumla sadece bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma de\u011fil, bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak siyasi ger\u00e7eklik daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131labilir. Bu nedenle sonu\u00e7 b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc, geleneksel anlamda bir sonu\u00e7tan ziyade, ana fikirlerin sakin bir \u00f6zetidir: \u015fu anda neden daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek ve daha az man\u015fet atmak gereklidir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-4899 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Kohl-Gorbatschow.jpg\" alt=\"Zihinsel disiplin ve diplomasi\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Kohl-Gorbatschow.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Kohl-Gorbatschow-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Kohl-Gorbatschow-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/NATO-Russland-Kohl-Gorbatschow-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme, daha az man\u015fet: \u0130htiyatl\u0131 bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131<\/h2>\n<p>Bu makalenin sonunda nihai bir yarg\u0131ya varmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. D\u00fcnya bunun i\u00e7in \u00e7ok karma\u015f\u0131k, siyaset \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 ve insan davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da \u00e7ok \u00e7eli\u015fkili. Geriye daha \u00e7ok bir tutum ya da belki de daha iyisi bir umut kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Siyasi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n bir kez daha anlat\u0131lardan ziyade ger\u00e7eklere dayanmas\u0131 umudu. \u0130fadelere s\u0131k s\u0131k tekrarland\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011fil, do\u011frulanabilir olduklar\u0131 i\u00e7in inan\u0131lmas\u0131. Ve \u015f\u00fcphecili\u011fin bir tehdit olarak de\u011fil, sorumlu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncenin gerekli bir bile\u015feni olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi.<\/p>\n<h3>Anlat\u0131lar kullan\u0131\u015fl\u0131d\u0131r - ger\u00e7eklik yorucudur<\/h3>\n<p>Anlat\u0131lar\u0131n bir avantaj\u0131 vard\u0131r: basittirler. D\u00fcnyay\u0131 net kategoriler halinde d\u00fczenlerler, a\u00e7\u0131k su\u00e7lamalar sa\u011flarlar ve bir y\u00f6nelim duygusu iletirler. Belirsizlik zamanlar\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle ba\u015ftan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131c\u0131d\u0131rlar. Karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalt\u0131r ve duygusal rahatlama sa\u011flarlar.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak tehlike tam da burada yatmaktad\u0131r. Anlat\u0131lara \u00e7ok fazla bel ba\u011flayanlar nas\u0131l soru soracaklar\u0131n\u0131 unuturlar. Man\u015fetlerle ger\u00e7ekleri birbirine kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131ranlar b\u00fcy\u00fck resmi g\u00f6remezler. Ve siyasi kararlar\u0131 yaln\u0131zca korkuya dayand\u0131ranlar g\u00fcvenli\u011fi de\u011fil, g\u00fcvensizli\u011fi artt\u0131r\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcvenli bir d\u00fcnya s\u00fcrekli tetikte olmakla de\u011fil, risklerin ve s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirilmesiyle yarat\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Ger\u00e7ekler kesinlik de\u011fil, istikrar yarat\u0131r<\/h3>\n<p>Ger\u00e7ekler genellikle uygunsuzdur. Nadiren net kahramanlar ve k\u00f6t\u00fc adamlar, nadiren de basit \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler sunarlar. Bizi \u00e7eli\u015fkilere katlanmaya ve karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kabul etmeye zorlarlar. Ancak belirleyici bir avantajlar\u0131 vard\u0131r: yanl\u0131\u015f yorumlamalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarlar.<\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u0131n\u0131rlama uluslararas\u0131 politikada \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. Yanl\u0131\u015f anlamalar, yanl\u0131\u015f de\u011ferlendirmeler ve tahminler t\u0131rmanman\u0131n en yayg\u0131n nedenleri aras\u0131ndad\u0131r. Akt\u00f6rler birbirlerini ne kadar net de\u011ferlendirirse, istenmeyen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da o kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olur.<br \/>\nGer\u00e7ekler uyum yaratmaz. Ancak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirlik yarat\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n<h3>G\u00fcvenlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekle ba\u015flar<\/h3>\n<p>G\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 genellikle askeri ya da teknik bir mesele olarak anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Ancak bu \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nce, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme \u015feklimizde ba\u015flar. Tehditlerin tan\u0131mlanma bi\u00e7iminde, \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n nas\u0131l yorumland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve dilin nas\u0131l kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda.<\/p>\n<p>Her senaryo hemen maksimize edilirse, n\u00fcansa yer kalmaz. Herhangi bir farkl\u0131la\u015fma zay\u0131fl\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse, kararlar\u0131n kalitesi d\u00fc\u015fer. Ve anlat\u0131lar analizlerin yerini ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, siyaset y\u00f6nlendirme yetene\u011fini kaybeder.<\/p>\n<p>Bu nedenle g\u00fcvenli bir d\u00fcnya sadece savunmay\u0131 de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda zihinsel disiplini de gerektirir.<\/p>\n<h3>B\u00fcy\u00fckbabalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n hala bildikleri - ve bug\u00fcn eksik olan \u015feyler<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/bueyuekbabalarimizin-savas-hakkinda-bi%cc%87ze-anlattiklari-ve-bu-sesleri%cc%87n-buguen-neden-kayip-oldugu\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-4678 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Opa-Kriegserinnerungen-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Dedelerin sava\u015f an\u0131lar\u0131\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Opa-Kriegserinnerungen-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Opa-Kriegserinnerungen-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Opa-Kriegserinnerungen-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Opa-Kriegserinnerungen.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Bug\u00fcn Rusya ve NATO aras\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalardan bahsedenler genellikle soyut stratejiler, ittifaklar ve senaryolar d\u00fczeyinde hareket ediyorlar. Giderek eksik olan \u015fey, sava\u015f\u0131 siyasi bir kavram olarak de\u011fil, varolu\u015fsal bir ger\u00e7eklik olarak deneyimleyen neslin do\u011frudan deneyimidir.<\/p>\n<p>Bir\u00e7ok <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/bueyuekbabalarimizin-savas-hakkinda-bi%cc%87ze-anlattiklari-ve-bu-sesleri%cc%87n-buguen-neden-kayip-oldugu\/\"><strong>B\u00fcy\u00fckbabalar sadece b\u00f6l\u00fck p\u00f6r\u00e7\u00fck hikayeler anlatt\u0131<\/strong><\/a> A\u00e7l\u0131k, hapis ya da yolda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 kaybetme hikayelerini \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ge\u00e7, bazen sadece soruldu\u011funda, nadiren de g\u00f6rkemli ifadelerle anlatt\u0131lar. Onlar\u0131n raporlar\u0131 analiz de\u011fil, yoksunluk, \u015fans ve hayatta kalma ile \u015fekillenen an\u0131lard\u0131. Bug\u00fcn, \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f tan\u0131klar art\u0131k ortal\u0131kta olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu sesler daha sessiz hale geliyor ya da tamamen kayboluyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, siyasi anlat\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde yatan ger\u00e7eklik duygusu da kayboluyor. Sava\u015f\u0131n ger\u00e7ekte ne anlama geldi\u011fini anlamak isteyen herkes bu perspektiflerin fark\u0131nda olmal\u0131d\u0131r - geleneksel anlamda bir hat\u0131rlatma olarak de\u011fil, aksi takdirde \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde \u00e7ok teorik hale gelen bir tart\u0131\u015fmaya ek olarak.<\/p>\n<h3>Kamunun rol\u00fc<\/h3>\n<p>Halk da sorumluluk ta\u015f\u0131r - su\u00e7luluk anlam\u0131nda de\u011fil, etki anlam\u0131nda. Medya t\u00fcketimi, siyasi tart\u0131\u015fmalar ve sosyal a\u011flar belirli yorumlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken di\u011ferlerini bast\u0131r\u0131r. Bir anlat\u0131 ne kadar g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcl\u00fcyse, daha sessiz arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131 alg\u0131lamak o kadar zorla\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak kamusal alan dura\u011fan bir alan de\u011fildir. Sorulan sorularla - ve sorulmamas\u0131 gereken sorularla - de\u011fi\u015fir. Kar\u015f\u0131 anlat\u0131lar\u0131 refleks olarak benimsemeden anlat\u0131lar\u0131 sorgulamaya haz\u0131r olanlar, daha istikrarl\u0131 bir tart\u0131\u015fma k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fcne katk\u0131da bulunurlar.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, siyasi bir duru\u015ftan geri ad\u0131m atmak de\u011fildir. Bu onun \u00f6n ko\u015fuludur.<\/p>\n<h3>M\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir dilek<\/h3>\n<p>Belki de ger\u00e7eklerin uzun vadede anlat\u0131lara \u00fcst\u00fcn gelece\u011fini ummak safl\u0131k olur. Anlat\u0131lar muhtemelen her zaman siyasi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olmaya devam edecektir. Ancak d\u00fcnyay\u0131 nas\u0131l g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc tek ba\u015flar\u0131na belirlememelerini dilemek safl\u0131k de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu makale kavramlar\u0131n netle\u015ftirilmesine, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ve daha yak\u0131ndan bakma iste\u011finin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesine k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir katk\u0131da bulunursa, amac\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Cevap verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in de\u011fil - sorular\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tuttu\u011fu i\u00e7in.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcvenli bir d\u00fcnya, s\u00fcrekli olarak en k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc bekleyerek yarat\u0131lmaz. Ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi t\u00fcm karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ciddiye alarak yarat\u0131l\u0131r. Daha az man\u015fet, daha \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme. Daha az kesinlik, daha fazla inceleme.<\/p>\n<p>Belki bu ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir iddia de\u011fil. Ancak uygulanabilir bir iddia.<\/p>\n<p>Ve bazen bu tam olarak yeterlidir.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Konuyla ilgili kaynaklar ve arka plan bilgileri<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/en.kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/transcripts\/22931\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kremlin.ru - Federal Meclise Y\u0131ll\u0131k Konu\u015fma (25\/04\/2005)<\/a><\/strong>Putin'in Sovyetler Birli\u011fi'nin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n \u201e(en) b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik felaketlerinden biri\u201c olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle Rusya ve Rusya Federasyonu d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki Ruslar i\u00e7in sosyal, demografik ve y\u00f6netimsel sonu\u00e7lara at\u0131fta bulundu\u011fu konu\u015fman\u0131n resmi metni.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/irp.fas.org\/news\/2005\/04\/putin042505.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FAS \/ IRP - Putin 2005 Ulusa Sesleni\u015f Konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ngilizce \u00e7evirisi<\/a><\/strong>: 2005 konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ngilizce \u00e7evirisini\/benimsemesini belgeleyen ve \u00fcnl\u00fc \u201ejeopolitik felaket\u201c pasaj\u0131n\u0131 bulmay\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131ran ikincil kaynak.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/en.kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/20603\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kremlin.ru - Rusya Federasyonu Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131'n\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131 (18\/03\/2014, \u201eK\u0131r\u0131m konu\u015fmas\u0131\u201c)<\/a><\/strong>K\u0131r\u0131m'\u0131n kabul\u00fcne ili\u015fkin konu\u015fman\u0131n resmi transkripti.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/en.kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/20607\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kremlin.ru - K\u0131r\u0131m'\u0131n \u00fcyeli\u011fini destekleme toplant\u0131s\u0131 (18.03.2014)<\/a><\/strong>Ayn\u0131 g\u00fcne ait tamamlay\u0131c\u0131 birincil kaynak (halka a\u00e7\u0131k konu\u015fma\/etkinlik).<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/en.kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/66181\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kremlin.ru - Vladimir Putin'in \u201eRuslar\u0131n ve Ukraynal\u0131lar\u0131n Tarihi Birli\u011fi \u00dczerine\u201c ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 makalesi (12.07.2021)<\/a><\/strong>Putin'in Rusya\/Ukrayna'ya ili\u015fkin tarihsel yorum \u00e7izgisi i\u00e7in birincil kaynak. Alaka d\u00fczeyi: Rus hedef imajlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir\u00e7ok Bat\u0131l\u0131 yorum bu arg\u00fcmantasyon yap\u0131s\u0131na at\u0131fta bulunmaktad\u0131r; burada orijinal ba\u011flamda tam olarak belgelenmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.osw.waw.pl\/en\/publikacje\/analyses\/2021-07-13\/putins-article-historical-unity-russians-and-ukrainians\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">OSW (Do\u011fu Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi) - Putin'in makalesinin analizi (13.07.2021)<\/a><\/strong>: K\u00f6kl\u00fc bir Do\u011fu Avrupa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu taraf\u0131ndan 2021 makalesinin uzman kategorizasyonu.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/en.kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/67828\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kremlin.ru - Rusya Federasyonu Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131'n\u0131n Konu\u015fmas\u0131 (21.02.2022)<\/a><\/strong>Donetsk\/Luhansk \u201eHalk Cumhuriyetlerinin\u201c tan\u0131nmas\u0131ndan hemen \u00f6nceki birincil kaynak. \u00d6nemli \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc tart\u0131\u015fmadaki bir\u00e7ok gerek\u00e7e (NATO, g\u00fcvenlik mimarisi, tarih) bu konu\u015fmaya dayan\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/en.kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/67843\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kremlin.ru - Rusya Federasyonu Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131'n\u0131n Konu\u015fmas\u0131 (24.02.2022)<\/a><\/strong>24\/02\/2022 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n gerek\u00e7elendirilmesi i\u00e7in birincil kaynak: Hedefler olarak iddia edilenler ve liderli\u011fin operasyonu nas\u0131l gerek\u00e7elendirdi\u011fi burada tam olarak okunabilir.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.un.org\/en\/S\/2022\/154\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler - Belge S\/2022\/154 (24\/02\/2022)<\/a><\/strong>Putin'in 24 \u015eubat 2022 tarihli konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ek\/referans olarak listeleyen BM belgeleri.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/about-us\/official-texts-and-resources\/official-texts\/1949\/04\/04\/the-north-atlantic-treaty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NATO - Kuzey Atlantik Antla\u015fmas\u0131 (Resmi Metin)<\/a><\/strong>Resmi anla\u015fma metni, Madde 5\/6\u201en\u0131n dayana\u011f\u0131 ve \u201csilahl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 \u201en\u0131n ne anlama geldi\u011fine ve bundan hangi y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn do\u011fdu\u011funa dair hukuki kategorizasyon (\u201cgerekli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc eylem\" ifadesi de dahil olmak \u00fczere).<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/what-we-do\/introduction-to-nato\/collective-defence-and-article-5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NATO - Kolektif savunma ve Madde 5 (Deklarasyon, g\u00fcncellendi)<\/a><\/strong>Madde 5'i anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r bir \u015fekilde \u00f6zetleyen, ba\u011flam sa\u011flayan ve i\u015flevsel mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan NATO arka plan sayfas\u0131 (yard\u0131m evet, ancak t\u00fcr\u00fc\/kapsam\u0131 siyasi olarak belirlenecek). Antla\u015fman\u0131n Almancas\u0131n\u0131\/\u0130ngilizcesini okumak istemeyen okuyucular i\u00e7in \u00e7ok uygundur.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/RegData\/etudes\/ATAG\/2022\/739250\/EPRS_ATA%282022%29739250_EN.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Avrupa Parlamentosu (EPRS) - NATO Md. 5 ve AB Md. 42(7) hakk\u0131nda brifing<\/a><\/strong>NATO ve AB'nin kolektif savunma h\u00fck\u00fcmlerinin kompakt bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131. NATO yard\u0131m\u0131 ile AB yard\u0131m\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki farklar\u0131n net bir hukuki\/kavramsal a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 i\u00e7in faydal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/russias-putin-we-have-no-interest-invading-poland-or-latvia-2024-02-08\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - Putin: Polonya\/Letonya'y\u0131 i\u015fgal etmekle \u201eilgilenmiyorum\u201c (08.02.2024)<\/a><\/strong>Putin'in NATO \u00fclkelerine y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 reddetti\u011fi Carlson r\u00f6portaj\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u00e7a al\u0131nt\u0131lanan ana ifadeyi i\u00e7eren haber raporu.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/putin-tells-pilots-f16s-can-carry-nuclear-weapons-they-wont-change-things-2024-03-27\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - Putin: Rusya NATO'ya sald\u0131rmayacak; F-16 ba\u011flam\u0131 (27.03.2024)<\/a><\/strong>Putin'in hava kuvvetleri pilotlar\u0131na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalara ili\u015fkin rapor, t\u0131rmand\u0131rma mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 da dahil (F-16, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclkelerden kalk\u0131\u015flar i\u00e7in olas\u0131 hedef tan\u0131m\u0131). Alaka: Ukrayna ba\u011flam\u0131nda ayn\u0131 anda hem yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 (\u201eNATO'ya sald\u0131r\u0131 yok\u201c) hem de tehdit edici\/cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 retorik.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/what-happened-last-time-russia-ukraine-held-peace-talks-2025-05-12\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - Genel Bak\u0131\u015f: 2022'deki son do\u011frudan bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde ne oldu? (12.05.2025)<\/a><\/strong>Taslaklar\u0131n kilit noktalar\u0131 ve tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 konular (tarafs\u0131zl\u0131k, garantiler, asker g\u00fcc\u00fc, K\u0131r\u0131m meselesi) dahil olmak \u00fczere Belarus\/\u0130stanbul 2022 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00f6zeti.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/russia-ukraine-talk-about-peace-are-still-far-apart-2025-06-02\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin\/konu\u015fmalar\u0131n sonraki turlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin rapor (03\/06\/2025)<\/a><\/strong>Reuters, Rusya'n\u0131n taleplerinin sunulmas\u0131 ve m\u00fczakere formatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki siyasi gerilimler de dahil olmak \u00fczere, yenilenen do\u011frudan temaslar ve pozisyonlar aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck mesafeye ili\u015fkin haber yapt\u0131.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/putin-germany-unlikely-accept-gas-via-remaining-nord-stream-2-pipeline-2022-10-14\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - Putin: Sa\u011flam Kuzey Ak\u0131m 2 boru hatt\u0131 \u00fczerinden gaz teklif edin; Almanya reddediyor (14.10.2022)<\/a><\/strong>: Sa\u011flam kalan NS2 t\u00fcp\u00fc ve siyasi kabul g\u00f6rmeme konusundaki tart\u0131\u015fmalar i\u00e7in somut, tarihli Reuters kan\u0131t\u0131.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/markets\/putin-russia-can-still-supply-gas-via-nord-stream-2-as-one-line-intact-idUSS8N3A2079\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - Putin: Rusya NS2 \u00fczerinden gaz tedarik etmeye devam edebilir (05.10.2023)<\/a><\/strong>: Tekrarlanan sinyali belgeleyen Reuters mesaj\u0131 (\u201eteslimata haz\u0131r\u201c, tek sat\u0131r sa\u011flam).<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/gas-pipeline-nord-streams-long-way-back-europe-2025-03-07\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - A\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131c\u0131: Kuzey Ak\u0131m, hasar, engeller, siyasi ba\u011flam (07.03.2025)<\/a><\/strong>Boru hatlar\u0131n\u0131n durumu ve geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerinin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki siyasi\/teknik engeller hakk\u0131nda arka plan yaz\u0131s\u0131.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/kremlin-says-intact-section-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-could-be-quickly-activated-2025-09-26\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - Kremlin: Kuzey Ak\u0131m'\u0131n sa\u011flam b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc h\u0131zla faaliyete ge\u00e7ebilir (26\/09\/2025)<\/a><\/strong>Daha sonra Reuters, Rus taraf\u0131n\u0131n kamuoyu \u00f6n\u00fcnde \u201eyeniden aktif hale getirilebilirli\u011fi\u201c vurgulamaya devam etti\u011fini kan\u0131tlad\u0131. \u00d6nem: y\u0131llar boyunca verilen sinyallerin s\u00fcreklili\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/analysis\/end-russian-gas-transit-ukraine-and-options-eu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bruegel - Rus gaz\u0131\/transit ve AB se\u00e7enekleri \u00fczerine analiz (17\/10\/2024)<\/a><\/strong>Gaz durumu, Ukrayna \u00fczerinden transit ge\u00e7i\u015f ve stratejik se\u00e7enekler \u00fczerine Avrupa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu makalesi. Bireysel siyasi a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak Avrupa'n\u0131n neden yap\u0131sal olarak \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmeye odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in faydal\u0131.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/trump-if-nato-members-dont-pay-us-wont-defend-them-2025-03-07\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - Trump: ABD \u00f6deme yapmayanlar\u0131 savunmayacak (07.03.2025)<\/a><\/strong>Reuters'in haberi, Avrupa'da ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k ve n\u00fckleer savunma konusundaki tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131ran \u201eABD belirsizlik fakt\u00f6r\u00fc \u201cn\u00fcn bir kan\u0131t\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/republicans-blast-trump-over-threat-abandon-nato-allies-2024-02-12\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - Trump'\u0131n NATO A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na Tepkiler (12.02.2024)<\/a><\/strong>: ABD'nin g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fine ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n sadece Avrupa'ya \u00f6zg\u00fc bir yorum olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na, ABD'de de tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 oldu\u011funa dair ba\u011flamsal kan\u0131t.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.congress.gov\/crs-product\/LSB11256\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ABD Kongresi (CRS) - Kuzey Atlantik Antla\u015fmas\u0131: Yasal Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler ve Kongre Yetkisi (Yasal Kenar \u00c7ubu\u011fu)<\/a><\/strong>NATO'dan tek tarafl\u0131 \u00e7ekilmenin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki yasal engellerin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere ABD kongresi perspektifinden yasal s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma (anahtar kelime: B\u00f6l\u00fcm 1250A).<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/aerospace-defense\/merz-says-germany-exploring-shared-nuclear-umbrella-with-european-allies-2026-01-29\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - Merz: Avrupa n\u00fckleer \u015femsiyesi \u00fczerine g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler (29.01.2026)<\/a><\/strong>Atlantik \u00f6tesi g\u00fcvensizli\u011fe bir tepki olarak n\u00fckleer cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k\/koruyucu kalkan \u00fczerine Avrupa'daki mevcut tart\u0131\u015fmalar i\u00e7in Reuters kan\u0131t\u0131.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/frances-macron-address-nation-late-wednesday-2025-03-05\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - Macron Fransa'n\u0131n n\u00fckleer kalkan\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fletilmesini tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7t\u0131 (05\/03\/2025)<\/a><\/strong>Frans\u0131z pozisyonunu belgeleyen Reuters kayna\u011f\u0131 (konu\u015fmaya istekli, ancak ulusal kontrol)<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tagesspiegel.de\/politik\/joschka-fischer-uber-die-neue-weltlage-als-junger-mann-wurde-ich-mich-freiwillig-zum-wehrdienst-melden-15191494.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tagesspiegel - Joschka Fischer ile yeni d\u00fcnya durumu \u00fczerine r\u00f6portaj (29.01.2026)<\/a><\/strong>: Fischer'in Avrupa'n\u0131n n\u00fckleer cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k\/\u201eAvrupa n\u00fckleer bombas\u0131\u201c hakk\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi gerekti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n birincil medya kayna\u011f\u0131, ABD'nin koruma garantisinin belirsizli\u011fi ile gerek\u00e7elendirilmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.stern.de\/news\/ex-aussenminister-joschka-fischer-plaediert-fuer-atomare-aufruestung-europas-37086690.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stern - Fischer giri\u015fimine ili\u015fkin \u00f6zet\/haberler (29\/01\/2026)<\/a><\/strong>Fischer'in pozisyonunu k\u0131saca \u00f6zetleyen ve orijinal g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin yan\u0131nda ek bir referans olarak kullan\u0131labilecek ikincil rapor.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/germanys-merz-says-eu-willing-talk-russia-will-not-hold-parallel-talks-2026-02-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters - Merz: AB prensipte g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye istekli, ancak \u201eparalel kanallar\u201c yok (06\/02\/2026)<\/a><\/strong>: Mevcut Reuters, \u201ediyalo\u011fun\u201c kamuoyunda bir se\u00e7enek olarak dile getirildi\u011fini, ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda siyasi olarak kontroll\u00fc ve koordineli kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini kan\u0131tl\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"display-post-types\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">\n\t\t\t#dpt-wrapper-913 { --dpt-text-align: left;--dpt-image-crop: center;--dpt-border-radius: 5px;--dpt-h-gutter: 10px;--dpt-v-gutter: 9px; }\t\t\t<\/style>\n\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">#dpt-wrapper-913 { --dpt-title-font-style:normal;--dpt-title-font-weight:600;--dpt-title-line-height:1.5;--dpt-title-text-decoration:none;--dpt-title-text-transform:none;--dpt-excerpt-font-style:normal;--dpt-excerpt-font-weight:400;--dpt-excerpt-line-height:1.5;--dpt-excerpt-text-decoration:none;--dpt-excerpt-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta1-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta1-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta1-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta1-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta1-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta2-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta2-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta2-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta2-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta2-text-transform:none; }<\/style><div class=\"dpt-main-header\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-main-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dpt-main-title-text\">Sanat ve k\u00fclt\u00fcr \u00fczerine g\u00fcncel makaleler<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div id=\"dpt-wrapper-913\" class=\"dpt-wrapper dpt-mag1 land1 dpt-cropped dpt-flex-wrap\" >\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"gr\u00f6nland, trump und die frage der zugeh\u00f6rigkeit: geschichte, recht und realit\u00e4t\" data-id=\"4325\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur\" data-post_tag=\"europa geopolitik krisen meinungsfreiheit sicherheitspolitik spieltheorie\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/groenland-trump-ve-ai%cc%87di%cc%87yet-sorunu-tari%cc%87h-hukuk-ve-gercekli%cc%87k\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Gr\u00f6nland, Trump ve aidiyet sorunu: tarih, hukuk ve ger\u00e7eklik<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Gr\u00f6nland hedefte: ABD ve Trump\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Groenland-USA-Trump-Titel.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Groenland-USA-Trump-Titel.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Groenland-USA-Trump-Titel-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Groenland-USA-Trump-Titel-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Groenland-USA-Trump-Titel-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/groenland-trump-ve-ai%cc%87di%cc%87yet-sorunu-tari%cc%87h-hukuk-ve-gercekli%cc%87k\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Gr\u00f6nland, Trump ve aidiyet sorunu: tarih, hukuk ve ger\u00e7eklik<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"warum dieter bohlen spricht, wenn andere schweigen: ein portr\u00e4t \u00fcber flei\u00df und klarheit\" data-id=\"3744\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur\" data-post_tag=\"auswandern deutschland erfahrungen krisen meinungsfreiheit musik portrait\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/di%cc%87eter-bohlen-di%cc%87gerleri%cc%87-sessi%cc%87z-kalirken-neden-konusuyor-bi%cc%87r-caliskanlik-ve-netli%cc%87k-portresi%cc%87\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Di\u011ferleri sessiz kal\u0131rken Dieter Bohlen neden konu\u015fuyor? Bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k ve a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k portresi<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Dieter-Bohlen-Portrait.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Dieter-Bohlen-Portrait.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Dieter-Bohlen-Portrait-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Dieter-Bohlen-Portrait-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Dieter-Bohlen-Portrait-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/di%cc%87eter-bohlen-di%cc%87gerleri%cc%87-sessi%cc%87z-kalirken-neden-konusuyor-bi%cc%87r-caliskanlik-ve-netli%cc%87k-portresi%cc%87\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Di\u011ferleri sessiz kal\u0131rken Dieter Bohlen neden konu\u015fuyor? Bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k ve a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k portresi<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"reichweite ist kein eigentum &#8211; warum sichtbarkeit heute nicht mehr ausreicht\" data-id=\"3994\"  data-category=\"allgemein filemaker &amp; erp gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur\" data-post_tag=\"datenlogik datenschutz denkmodelle digitales eigentum erp-software\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/erisim-sahiplik-degildir-neden-goeruenuerluek-guenuemuezde-artik-yeterli-degildir\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Eri\u015fim sahiplik de\u011fildir - G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fck neden art\u0131k yeterli de\u011fil?<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Eri\u015fim ve sahiplik\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/reichweite-vs-eigentum.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/reichweite-vs-eigentum.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/reichweite-vs-eigentum-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/reichweite-vs-eigentum-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/reichweite-vs-eigentum-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/erisim-sahiplik-degildir-neden-goeruenuerluek-guenuemuezde-artik-yeterli-degildir\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Eri\u015fim sahiplik de\u011fildir - G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fck neden art\u0131k yeterli de\u011fil?<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"wenn pflicht wieder pflicht wird. eine art essay von herrn von l&#8217;oreot.\" data-id=\"3010\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur stories &amp; humor\" data-post_tag=\"deutschland erfahrungen geopolitik krisen pers\u00f6nlichkeitsentwicklung sicherheitspolitik\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/10\/goerev-tekrar-goerev-oldugunda-bay-von-loreotun-bi%cc%87r-tuer-denemesi%cc%87\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">G\u00f6rev tekrar g\u00f6reve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde. Bay von L'oreot'un bir t\u00fcr denemesi.<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Beklenmedik bir telefon g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loreot-pflicht-anruf.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loreot-pflicht-anruf.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loreot-pflicht-anruf-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loreot-pflicht-anruf-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loreot-pflicht-anruf-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/10\/goerev-tekrar-goerev-oldugunda-bay-von-loreotun-bi%cc%87r-tuer-denemesi%cc%87\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">G\u00f6rev tekrar g\u00f6reve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde. Bay von L'oreot'un bir t\u00fcr denemesi.<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n<hr \/>\n<h2>S\u0131k\u00e7a sorulan sorular<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Bu makale Rus politikas\u0131n\u0131 hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 ya da savunmay\u0131 m\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor?<\/strong><br \/>\nHay\u0131r. Makale a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a Rus politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunmay\u0131 ya da hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamamaktad\u0131r. Aksine, iddialar\u0131, anlat\u0131lar\u0131 ve at\u0131flar\u0131 do\u011frulanabilir ifadelerden ve anla\u015f\u0131labilir \u00e7\u0131karlardan ay\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Rusya'n\u0131n eylemlerini ele\u015ftirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn ve gerekli olmaya devam etmektedir - ancak burada ahlaki varsay\u0131mlardan ziyade analitik bir temele oturtulmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Putin'in ger\u00e7ekte ne s\u00f6yledi\u011fine neden bu kadar \u00e7ok vurgu yap\u0131l\u0131yor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc siyasi de\u011ferlendirmeler ancak do\u011frulanabilir beyanlara dayand\u0131klar\u0131 takdirde ge\u00e7erli olabilirler. Kamuoyundaki tart\u0131\u015fmalarda Putin'in hedefleri genellikle yorumlan\u0131yor, abart\u0131l\u0131yor veya bireysel al\u0131nt\u0131lardan t\u00fcretiliyor. Bu makale, yorum ve do\u011frulanabilir ifadeler aras\u0131nda genellikle b\u00fcy\u00fck bir bo\u015fluk oldu\u011funu ve bu bo\u015flu\u011fun siyasi kararlar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermeyi ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bu, Rusya'n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na inanmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na m\u0131 geliyor?<\/strong><br \/>\nHay\u0131r. Devlet liderlerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 her zaman \u00e7\u0131karlar taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendirilir. Bu makale iyi niyeti de\u011fil, kategorize etmeyi savunmaktad\u0131r. K\u00f6r\u00fc k\u00f6r\u00fcne g\u00fcven ile toptan reddetme aras\u0131nda, a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n incelenebilece\u011fi, ba\u011flamsalla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilece\u011fi ve eylemlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilece\u011fi bir alan vard\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sovyetler Birli\u011fi g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda neden hala bu kadar \u00f6nemli bir rol oynuyor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc on y\u0131llar boyunca Bat\u0131'da merkezi bir tehdit olarak yer etmi\u015ftir. Bu tarihsel ter\u00f6r imaj\u0131 bug\u00fcn de etkisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte ve \u00e7o\u011fu zaman bilin\u00e7sizce Rusya alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 karakterize etmektedir. Makale, bu damgan\u0131n 21. y\u00fczy\u0131ldaki somut Rus planlar\u0131ndan ziyade Bat\u0131l\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda daha fazla \u015fey s\u00f6yledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rusya'n\u0131n Ukrayna'daki eylemleri ger\u00e7ekten Avrupa'ya aktar\u0131lamaz m\u0131?<\/strong><br \/>\nMakale, otomatik bir transferin analitik olarak sa\u011flam olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunmaktad\u0131r. Ukrayna'n\u0131n Rus politikas\u0131nda tarihsel, k\u00fclt\u00fcrel ve stratejik olarak gerek\u00e7elendirilen \u00f6zel bir rol\u00fc vard\u0131r - bu gerek\u00e7elendirme nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendirilirse de\u011ferlendirilsin. Bundan do\u011frudan NATO devletlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131 plan\u0131 t\u00fcretmek gerekli baz\u0131 ara ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atlamak anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bir NATO \u00fclkesine sald\u0131rmak Rusya i\u00e7in neden bu kadar mant\u0131ks\u0131z olsun?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00f6yle bir sald\u0131r\u0131, kayda de\u011fer herhangi bir stratejik kazan\u00e7 getirmeden b\u00fcy\u00fck askeri, ekonomik ve siyasi maliyetlere neden olacakt\u0131r. Kontrol edilmesi neredeyse imkans\u0131z olan t\u0131rmanma zincirlerini tetikleyecek ve Rusya'n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131s\u0131tlayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ama cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k hala gerekli de\u011fil mi?<\/strong><br \/>\nEvet, makale cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorgulam\u0131yor. Ancak, cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k ve alarmc\u0131l\u0131k aras\u0131nda bir ayr\u0131m yap\u0131yor. Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fe dayan\u0131r. Alarmizm ise yanl\u0131\u015f alg\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve siyasi tepkileri \u00e7arp\u0131tabilir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Makale neden maliyet ve kay\u0131plar\u0131 bu kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde vurguluyor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc rasyonel akt\u00f6rler - \u00f6zellikle de devletler - uzun vadede kendi yap\u0131sal \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na ayk\u0131r\u0131 hareket etmezler. Neyin olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu anlamak istiyorsan\u0131z, bir akt\u00f6r\u00fcn ne kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya da kaybedece\u011fini sorman\u0131z gerekir. Ahlaki kategoriler tek ba\u015f\u0131na jeopolitik kararlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaz.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rusya'n\u0131n m\u00fczakere teklifleri ciddi mi yoksa sadece taktik mi?<\/strong><br \/>\nHer ikisi de m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Makale, diyalog tekliflerinin ne otomatik olarak bar\u0131\u015f arzusunu kan\u0131tlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ne de anlams\u0131z oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. Bunlar siyasi ileti\u015fimin bir par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r ve idealize edilmeden ya da genel olarak de\u011fersizle\u015ftirilmeden bu \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Enerji konusu neden bu kadar ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak ele al\u0131n\u0131yor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc enerji, y\u0131llarca Rusya ve Avrupa aras\u0131nda merkezi bir ba\u011f oldu. Sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan sonra bile gaz tedarikinin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor olmas\u0131, ekonomik ve siyasi seviyelerin tamamen ayr\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ger\u00e7ek basit sava\u015f anlat\u0131lar\u0131na pek uymasa da analitik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemlidir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Anlat\u0131lar neden bu kadar sorunlu olarak sunuluyor?<\/strong><br \/>\nAnlat\u0131lar kendi ba\u015flar\u0131na yanl\u0131\u015f de\u011fildir, ancak ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi basitle\u015ftirirler. Analizin yerini ald\u0131klar\u0131nda sorunlu hale gelirler. G\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131nda bu tehlikeli olabilir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yanl\u0131\u015f alg\u0131lamalar\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepkileri destekler.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bir sava\u015f devam ederken anlat\u0131lar\u0131 sorgulamak tehlikeli de\u011fil mi?<\/strong><br \/>\nTehlikeli olan sorgulama de\u011fil, ele\u015ftirmeden kabullenmedir. Zihinsel disiplin \u00f6zellikle kriz zamanlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemlidir. Farkl\u0131la\u015fma, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00f6nemsizle\u015ftirmek de\u011fil, onlar\u0131 daha iyi anlamak anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201e\u015e\u00fcphecilik ile safl\u0131k aras\u0131nda\u201c somut olarak ne anlama geliyor?<\/strong><br \/>\nNe her \u015feye inanmak ne de her \u015feyi reddetmek anlam\u0131na gelir. \u015e\u00fcphecilik test eder, naiflik basitle\u015ftirir. Ciddi bir tutum \u00e7eli\u015fkilere dayanabilir, belirsizli\u011fi kabul eder ve sonu\u00e7lara atlamaktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Avrupa'n\u0131n kendi n\u00fckleer savunma kalkan\u0131na ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nas\u0131l bir rol oynuyor?<\/strong><br \/>\nBu durum NATO'nun da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan ziyade uzun vadeli ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar konusundaki belirsizli\u011fi g\u00f6stermektedir. Makale bu tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 acil bir tehdit ya da zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n kan\u0131t\u0131 olarak de\u011fil, ihtiyati bir tedbir olarak de\u011ferlendirmektedir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bu makaleden spesifik politika \u00f6nerileri \u00e7\u0131karabilir miyiz?<\/strong><br \/>\nBu makale siyasi bir program olarak tasarlanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Eylem i\u00e7in talimatlar de\u011fil, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce i\u00e7in bir temel sa\u011flamay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r. \u00d6nerisi daha metodiktir: daha yak\u0131ndan bakmak, net bir ayr\u0131m yapmak, daha az duygusal tepki vermek.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ses ve dile neden bu kadar \u00e7ok vurgu yap\u0131l\u0131yor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc dil ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi \u015fekillendirir. \u201eKa\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz\u201c, \u201ealternatif yok\u201c veya \u201eyak\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131\u201c gibi terimler alg\u0131y\u0131 ve kararlar\u0131 etkiler. Makale, gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rmak yerine a\u00e7\u0131klayan bir dil kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m b\u00f6ylesine duygusal bir d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in fazla a\u011f\u0131rba\u015fl\u0131 de\u011fil mi?<\/strong><br \/>\nBelki de. Ama tam da bu y\u00fczden gereklidir. Duygular anla\u015f\u0131labilir, ancak analizin yerini tutamazlar. Ay\u0131kl\u0131k merhamet eksikli\u011fi de\u011fil, sorumlu siyasetin \u00f6n ko\u015fuludur.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bir okuyucu olarak bu makalenin sonunda ne almal\u0131y\u0131m?<\/strong><br \/>\nYeni bir kesinlik de\u011fil, daha fazla muhakeme. Anlat\u0131lar\u0131 tan\u0131ma, ger\u00e7ekleri s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma ve hakl\u0131 endi\u015fe ile abart\u0131l\u0131 korkuyu birbirinden ay\u0131rma becerisi. E\u011fer bu ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olursa, makale amac\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Rusya ve NATO ile ilgili eski haberler<\/h2>\n<p><strong>19.02.2026<\/strong>: Federal \u015eans\u00f6lye Friedrich Merz'in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spiegel.de\/politik\/friedrich-merz-sieht-russland-im-zustand-der-tiefsten-barbarei-a-68218964-7266-43a6-9c1d-f34e08ca5d6c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>son r\u00f6portaj<\/strong><\/a> Ukrayna ihtilaf\u0131ndaki mevcut durum hakk\u0131nda \u00e7ok net konu\u015ftu. Haberlere g\u00f6re Merz, sava\u015f\u0131n m\u00fczakereler yoluyla h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde sona erdirilebilmesi i\u00e7in \u00e7ok az \u015fans g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00d6nce bu sava\u015f\u0131n sona erece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi, <em>\u201eiki taraftan biri askeri ya da ekonomik olarak t\u00fckendi\u011finde\u201c<\/em>. Rusya ile ilgili olarak, \u00fclkenin durumunu \u015fu s\u00f6zlerle tan\u0131mlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r <em>\u201een derin barbarl\u0131k\u201c<\/em>, ve mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve insani arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131n Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin'i ikna edemeyece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. Merz, Avrupa'n\u0131n amac\u0131n\u0131n Rusya'y\u0131 ekonomik ve askeri olarak zay\u0131flatmak ve b\u00f6ylece sava\u015fa devam edememesini sa\u011flamak oldu\u011funu belirtti. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Rus y\u00f6netiminin sava\u015f sona erdi\u011finde travma ge\u00e7iren askerlerle ne yapaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir plan\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na da dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>16.02.2026<\/strong>M\u00fcnih G\u00fcvenlik Konferans\u0131'n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Alman Genel M\u00fcfetti\u015fi Carsten Breuer ve \u0130ngiliz Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Richard Knighton, Avrupa'n\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yeniden silahland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ortak bir \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 yay\u0131nlad\u0131lar, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spiegel.de\/ausland\/bedrohung-durch-russland-carsten-breuer-und-richard-knighton-fordern-aufruestung-europas-a-460da50a-5062-44dd-b46e-00b1e965b0d2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Spiegel Online raporlar\u0131<\/strong><\/a>. Almanya ve \u0130ngiltere'nin en \u00fcst d\u00fczey iki askeri yetkilisi, Rusya'dan gelen askeri tehdidin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunarak daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kabiliyetler ve daha yak\u0131n i\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. \u0130lk olarak The Guardian ve Die Welt gibi uluslararas\u0131 medyada yer alan mektup, g\u00fcvenlik durumuyla ilgili \u201erahats\u0131z edici ger\u00e7ekleri\u201c halka iletmeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Daha fazla yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan bu \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131, gerilimin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ve diplomatik yumu\u015fama \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131yla tam bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"display-post-types\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">\n\t\t\t#dpt-wrapper-914 { --dpt-text-align: left;--dpt-image-crop: center;--dpt-border-radius: 5px;--dpt-h-gutter: 10px;--dpt-v-gutter: 9px; }\t\t\t<\/style>\n\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">#dpt-wrapper-914 { --dpt-title-font-style:normal;--dpt-title-font-weight:600;--dpt-title-line-height:1.5;--dpt-title-text-decoration:none;--dpt-title-text-transform:none;--dpt-excerpt-font-style:normal;--dpt-excerpt-font-weight:400;--dpt-excerpt-line-height:1.5;--dpt-excerpt-text-decoration:none;--dpt-excerpt-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta1-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta1-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta1-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta1-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta1-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta2-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta2-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta2-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta2-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta2-text-transform:none; }<\/style><div class=\"dpt-main-header\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-main-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dpt-main-title-text\">Yapay zeka \u00fczerine g\u00fcncel makaleler<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div id=\"dpt-wrapper-914\" class=\"dpt-wrapper dpt-mag1 land1 dpt-cropped dpt-flex-wrap\" >\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"cloud-ki als oberlehrer: warum die zukunft des arbeitens bei lokaler ki liegt\" data-id=\"3887\"  data-category=\"apple macos hardware ki-systeme\" data-post_tag=\"datenschutz digitales eigentum k\u00fcnstliche intelligenz llama llm meinungsfreiheit mistral mlx neo4j ollama sprachmodell\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/bulut-ki-en-i%cc%87yi%cc%87-oegretmen-olarak-i%cc%87si%cc%87n-gelecegi%cc%87-neden-yerel-kide-yatiyor\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Ba\u015f\u00f6\u011fretmen olarak bulut yapay zeka: \u0130\u015fin gelece\u011fi neden yerel yapay zekada yat\u0131yor?<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Bulut yapay zekas\u0131 ba\u015f\u00f6\u011fretmen oluyor\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/cloud-ki-oberlehrer.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/cloud-ki-oberlehrer.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/cloud-ki-oberlehrer-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/cloud-ki-oberlehrer-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/cloud-ki-oberlehrer-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/bulut-ki-en-i%cc%87yi%cc%87-oegretmen-olarak-i%cc%87si%cc%87n-gelecegi%cc%87-neden-yerel-kide-yatiyor\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Ba\u015f\u00f6\u011fretmen olarak bulut yapay zeka: \u0130\u015fin gelece\u011fi neden yerel yapay zekada yat\u0131yor?<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"vom content zur substanz: wie digitale systeme entstehen, die nicht kopierbar sind\" data-id=\"5899\"  data-category=\"allgemein b\u00fccher gesellschaft tipps &amp; anleitungen\" data-post_tag=\"buch datenlogik denkmodelle digitales eigentum erfahrungen k\u00fcnstliche intelligenz prozesse publishing ratgeber\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/04\/icerikten-maddeye-kopyalanamayan-dijital-sistemlerin-nasil-olusturuldugu\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u0130\u00e7erikten \u00f6ze: kopyalanamayan dijital sistemler nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulur?<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Bireysel i\u00e7erik yerine sistem\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Organische-Reichweite.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Organische-Reichweite.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Organische-Reichweite-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Organische-Reichweite-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Organische-Reichweite-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/04\/icerikten-maddeye-kopyalanamayan-dijital-sistemlerin-nasil-olusturuldugu\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">\u0130\u00e7erikten \u00f6ze: kopyalanamayan dijital sistemler nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulur?<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"der iran-israel-konflikt: warum diese eskalation der strategische albtraum des westens ist\" data-id=\"5212\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft\" data-post_tag=\"denkmodelle energiepolitik europa geopolitik krisen k\u00fcnstliche intelligenz meinungsfreiheit sicherheitspolitik spieltheorie\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/i%cc%87ran-i%cc%87srai%cc%87l-catismasi-bu-tirmandirma-neden-batinin-strateji%cc%87k-kabusu\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u0130ran-\u0130srail \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131: Bu t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f neden Bat\u0131'n\u0131n stratejik kabusu?<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\u0130srail-\u0130ran - Stratejik Kabus\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/i%cc%87ran-i%cc%87srai%cc%87l-catismasi-bu-tirmandirma-neden-batinin-strateji%cc%87k-kabusu\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">\u0130ran-\u0130srail \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131: Bu t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f neden Bat\u0131'n\u0131n stratejik kabusu?<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"apple mlx vs. nvidia: so funktioniert lokale ki-inferenz auf dem mac\" data-id=\"3461\"  data-category=\"apple macos filemaker &amp; erp hardware ki-systeme\" data-post_tag=\"apple datenschutz filemaker k\u00fcnstliche intelligenz llama llm mac mistral mlx ollama sprachmodell\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/11\/apple-mlx-vs-nvidia-macte-yerel-ki-cikarimi-nasil-calisir\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Apple MLX vs. NVIDIA: Mac'te yerel yapay zeka \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131 nas\u0131l \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r?<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Apple Mac ile Silicon \u00fczerinde yerel yapay zeka\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Lokales-Sprachmodell-apple-mac-studio.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Lokales-Sprachmodell-apple-mac-studio.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Lokales-Sprachmodell-apple-mac-studio-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Lokales-Sprachmodell-apple-mac-studio-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Lokales-Sprachmodell-apple-mac-studio-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/11\/apple-mlx-vs-nvidia-macte-yerel-ki-cikarimi-nasil-calisir\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Apple MLX vs. NVIDIA: Mac'te yerel yapay zeka \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131 nas\u0131l \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r?<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n<hr \/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dieser Artikel ist nicht aus einem aktuellen Impuls heraus entstanden, nicht aus Emp\u00f6rung oder aus Parteinahme. Er ist vielmehr das Ergebnis einer l\u00e4ngeren Beobachtung &#8211; und eines wachsenden Unbehagens. Ich habe mich mit Russland nicht erst seit dem Ukrainekrieg besch\u00e4ftigt. Das Interesse reicht weiter zur\u00fcck. Schon in der Schulzeit hatte ich Russisch als Fremdsprache, habe &#8230; <a title=\"Apple MLX vs. NVIDIA: Mac&#039;te yerel yapay zeka \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131 nas\u0131l \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/11\/apple-mlx-vs-nvidia-macte-yerel-ki-cikarimi-nasil-calisir\/\" aria-label=\"Apple MLX vs. NVIDIA: Mac&#039;te yerel yapay zeka \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131 nas\u0131l \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r hakk\u0131nda devam\u0131n\u0131 oku\">Devam\u0131n\u0131 oku<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":862,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,466],"tags":[480,481,470,475,482,426,476,484],"class_list":["post-4801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-allgemein","category-gesellschaft","tag-deutschland","tag-energiepolitik","tag-eu-gesetze","tag-europa","tag-geopolitik","tag-krisen","tag-meinungsfreiheit","tag-sicherheitspolitik"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4801","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4801"}],"version-history":[{"count":40,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4801\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6038,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4801\/revisions\/6038"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}