{"id":5212,"date":"2026-03-12T05:25:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T05:25:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/?p=5212"},"modified":"2026-05-07T07:00:23","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T07:00:23","slug":"i%cc%87ran-i%cc%87srai%cc%87l-catismasi-bu-tirmandirma-neden-batinin-strateji%cc%87k-kabusu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/i%cc%87ran-i%cc%87srai%cc%87l-catismasi-bu-tirmandirma-neden-batinin-strateji%cc%87k-kabusu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran-\u0130srail \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131: Bu t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f neden Bat\u0131'n\u0131n stratejik kabusu?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hikayede bir \u015feylerin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini hissetti\u011finiz anlar var. Aniden de\u011fil, tek bir kararla de\u011fil, eski kesinliklerin tozunu yava\u015f ama amans\u0131zca yutan bir \u00e7izgi gibi. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn b\u00f6yle anlard\u0131. Bu ba\u015fyaz\u0131y\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten yazmal\u0131 m\u0131y\u0131m diye uzun s\u00fcre d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcm - ne de olsa \u0130ran'\u0131 daha \u00f6nce bir kez ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak ele alm\u0131\u015f ve bu \u00fclkeyi ve g\u00fc\u00e7 yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ancak onlarca y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7izgilere bakarak anlayabilece\u011finizi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtmi\u015ftim. Ancak tam da bu \u00e7izgiler \u015fimdi her zamankinden daha net bir \u015fekilde yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale geldi.<\/p>\n<p>Beni aya\u011fa kald\u0131ran ve dikkatimi \u00e7eken \u015fey sadece somut ger\u00e7ekler de\u011fil: gece sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, \u0130srail f\u00fcze savunma sistemlerinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcklenmesi, siyasi liderlerin s\u00f6ylemleri, arka planda artan g\u00fc\u00e7 kaymas\u0131. Altta yatan \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc - burada her stratejist i\u00e7in kabus olacak bir a\u015famaya giren bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma oldu\u011fu duygusu. \u0130\u015fte tam da bu y\u00fczden bu makaleyi yaz\u0131yorum: \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc pek \u00e7ok ki\u015fi y\u00fczeyi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor, ancak neredeyse hi\u00e7 kimse alttan alta neyin kaynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlam\u0131yor.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc vatanda\u015flar\u0131n yeniden g\u00f6zleri a\u00e7\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyi \u00f6\u011frenmeleri gereken bir d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za inan\u0131yorum. Paniklemi\u015f ya da boyun e\u011fmi\u015f olarak de\u011fil, ay\u0131k olarak. Bu makaleyle yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u015fey de tam olarak bu: Aklamadan y\u00f6nlendirme sa\u011flamak ve bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n neden Bat\u0131'n\u0131n uzun zamand\u0131r bu \u015fekilde deneyimlemedi\u011fi yeni bir niteli\u011fe ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermek.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"display-post-types\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">\n\t\t\t#dpt-wrapper-707 { --dpt-text-align: left;--dpt-image-crop: center;--dpt-border-radius: 5px;--dpt-h-gutter: 10px;--dpt-v-gutter: 9px; }\t\t\t<\/style>\n\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">#dpt-wrapper-707 { --dpt-title-font-style:normal;--dpt-title-font-weight:600;--dpt-title-line-height:1.5;--dpt-title-text-decoration:none;--dpt-title-text-transform:none;--dpt-excerpt-font-style:normal;--dpt-excerpt-font-weight:400;--dpt-excerpt-line-height:1.5;--dpt-excerpt-text-decoration:none;--dpt-excerpt-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta1-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta1-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta1-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta1-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta1-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta2-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta2-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta2-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta2-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta2-text-transform:none; }<\/style><div class=\"dpt-main-header\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-main-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dpt-main-title-text\">Sanat ve k\u00fclt\u00fcr \u00fczerine g\u00fcncel makaleler<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div id=\"dpt-wrapper-707\" class=\"dpt-wrapper dpt-mag1 land1 dpt-cropped dpt-flex-wrap\" >\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"die affinity grafik-suite wird kostenlos: was profi-anwender jetzt wissen m\u00fcssen\" data-id=\"3675\"  data-category=\"apple macos b\u00fccher kunst &amp; kultur tipps &amp; anleitungen\" data-post_tag=\"buch mac prozesse publishing verlag\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/11\/affinity-graphics-suite-uecretsi%cc%87z-oldu-profesyonel-kullanicilarin-si%cc%87mdi%cc%87-bi%cc%87lmesi%cc%87-gerekenler\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Affinity grafik paketi \u00fccretsiz oldu: Profesyonel kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u015fimdi bilmesi gerekenler<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Affinity grafik paketi \u00fccretsiz\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/affinity-grafiksuite-kostenlos.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/affinity-grafiksuite-kostenlos.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/affinity-grafiksuite-kostenlos-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/affinity-grafiksuite-kostenlos-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/affinity-grafiksuite-kostenlos-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/11\/affinity-graphics-suite-uecretsi%cc%87z-oldu-profesyonel-kullanicilarin-si%cc%87mdi%cc%87-bi%cc%87lmesi%cc%87-gerekenler\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Affinity grafik paketi \u00fccretsiz oldu: Profesyonel kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u015fimdi bilmesi gerekenler<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"zukunft mit ladeger\u00e4t \u2013 herr von l&#8217;oreot kauft einen e-scooter\" data-id=\"3229\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur stories &amp; humor\" data-post_tag=\"erfahrungen\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/10\/sarj-ci%cc%87hazli-gelecek-bay-von-loreot-bi%cc%87r-e-scooter-satin-aliyor\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u015earj cihazl\u0131 gelecek - Bay von L'oreot bir e-scooter sat\u0131n al\u0131yor<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"747\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loereot-e-scooter-1.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loereot-e-scooter-1.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loereot-e-scooter-1-300x219.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loereot-e-scooter-1-768x560.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/loereot-e-scooter-1-16x12.jpg 16w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/10\/sarj-ci%cc%87hazli-gelecek-bay-von-loreot-bi%cc%87r-e-scooter-satin-aliyor\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">\u015earj cihazl\u0131 gelecek - Bay von L'oreot bir e-scooter sat\u0131n al\u0131yor<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"warum dieter bohlen spricht, wenn andere schweigen: ein portr\u00e4t \u00fcber flei\u00df und klarheit\" data-id=\"3744\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur\" data-post_tag=\"auswandern deutschland erfahrungen krisen meinungsfreiheit musik portrait\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/di%cc%87eter-bohlen-di%cc%87gerleri%cc%87-sessi%cc%87z-kalirken-neden-konusuyor-bi%cc%87r-caliskanlik-ve-netli%cc%87k-portresi%cc%87\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Di\u011ferleri sessiz kal\u0131rken Dieter Bohlen neden konu\u015fuyor? Bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k ve a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k portresi<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Dieter-Bohlen-Portrait.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Dieter-Bohlen-Portrait.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Dieter-Bohlen-Portrait-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Dieter-Bohlen-Portrait-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Dieter-Bohlen-Portrait-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/di%cc%87eter-bohlen-di%cc%87gerleri%cc%87-sessi%cc%87z-kalirken-neden-konusuyor-bi%cc%87r-caliskanlik-ve-netli%cc%87k-portresi%cc%87\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Di\u011ferleri sessiz kal\u0131rken Dieter Bohlen neden konu\u015fuyor? Bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k ve a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k portresi<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"apple im wandel: fr\u00fche ger\u00e4te, eigene erfahrungen und eine ausstellung im ocm\" data-id=\"5480\"  data-category=\"allgemein apple iphone &amp; ipad apple macos hardware kunst &amp; kultur stories &amp; humor\" data-post_tag=\"apple erfahrungen filemaker mac prozesse publishing\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/apple-in-transition-early-devices-kendi%cc%87-deneyi%cc%87mleri%cc%87-ve-ocmde-bi%cc%87r-sergi%cc%87\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecinde Apple: Erken d\u00f6nem cihazlar, ki\u015fisel deneyimler ve OCM'de bir sergi<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Apple Macintosh Classic ve Colour Classic\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Apple-OCM-Titel.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Apple-OCM-Titel.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Apple-OCM-Titel-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Apple-OCM-Titel-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Apple-OCM-Titel-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/apple-in-transition-early-devices-kendi%cc%87-deneyi%cc%87mleri%cc%87-ve-ocmde-bi%cc%87r-sergi%cc%87\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecinde Apple: Erken d\u00f6nem cihazlar, ki\u015fisel deneyimler ve OCM'de bir sergi<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\u0130srail-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin son haberler<\/h2>\n<p><strong>07.05.2026<\/strong>Frankfurter Rundschau <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fr.de\/politik\/ein-gewaltiger-kampf-ich-kenne-die-strasse-von-hormus-gut-sie-zu-oeffnen-wird-zr-94293506.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>artan t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa ili\u015fkin raporlar<\/strong><\/a> d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli petrol ve ticaret yollar\u0131ndan biri olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131'n\u0131n etraf\u0131n\u0131 sarm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bo\u011faz\u0131n askeri olarak a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekte ne kadar zor olaca\u011f\u0131 sorusu ilgi oda\u011f\u0131. Uzmanlar ve eski askeri personel durumun hafife al\u0131nmamas\u0131 konusunda uyar\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, d\u00fcnya petrol ve s\u0131v\u0131 gaz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in stratejik bir darbo\u011faz olarak kabul ediliyor. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sald\u0131r\u0131lar, may\u0131nlar ya da insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131 bile burada b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilir. Makalede, ABD ve m\u00fcttefiklerinin askeri \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011fe sahip g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesine ra\u011fmen, uzun vadede g\u00fczergah\u0131 koruman\u0131n son derece karma\u015f\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_uDbcYiSNxZg\"><div id=\"lyte_uDbcYiSNxZg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FuDbcYiSNxZg%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/uDbcYiSNxZg\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FuDbcYiSNxZg%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\n\u0130RAN SAVA\u015eI: Donald Trump \u201e\u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck Projesi \u201cni durdurdu - H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 hala kapal\u0131! |\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WELTVideoTV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">WELT haber kanal\u0131<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran, ABD ve \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki gerginli\u011fin daha da t\u0131rmanmas\u0131ndan duyulan endi\u015fe giderek art\u0131yor. G\u00f6zlemciler, uzun s\u00fcreli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n sadece d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmakla kalmay\u0131p, ayn\u0131 zamanda tedarik zincirlerini ve k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi de \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131yor. Bu makale jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomik meselelerle ne kadar yak\u0131ndan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu bir kez daha g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne seriyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>13.04.2026<\/strong>: ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakerelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kla sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131'nda deniz ablukas\u0131 emri verdi. Bu tedbirin amac\u0131 \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran'\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 engellemek ve b\u00f6ylece Tahran \u00fczerindeki ekonomik bask\u0131y\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131rmakt\u0131r. \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giden ya da bu limanlardan gelen gemiler \u00f6zellikle etkilenirken, di\u011fer K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinden gelen sevkiyatlar resmi olarak durdurulmayacak. Ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD, \u0130ran'\u0131n deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 temizleyece\u011fini ve gerekirse tehditlere kar\u015f\u0131 askeri \u00f6nlem alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130ran <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tagesschau.de\/ausland\/asien\/seeblockade-persischer-golf-strasse-hormus-usa-iran-100.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>G\u00fcnl\u00fck Haberler<\/strong><\/a> bir makalede bu deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n neden risksiz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutuyor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_J65_3WCdiGg\"><div id=\"lyte_J65_3WCdiGg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FJ65_3WCdiGg%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/J65_3WCdiGg\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FJ65_3WCdiGg%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131: Trump neden \u015fimdi bo\u011faz\u0131 kapat\u0131yor | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@ZDFheute\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ZDFtoday haberleri<\/a><\/p>\n<p>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birini ta\u015f\u0131yan, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli enerji g\u00fczergahlar\u0131ndan biridir. Potansiyel etkisi de buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fcksektir: A\u00e7\u0131klamadan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckseldi ve \u00e7ok say\u0131da ticari gemi Basra K\u00f6rfezi'nde mahsur kald\u0131. G\u00f6zlemciler, \u0130ran'\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve durumun hem askeri hem de ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan giderek gerginle\u015fti\u011fi bir ortamda gerilimin daha da t\u0131rmanabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>12.04.2026<\/strong>ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri Pakistan'da yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 saat s\u00fcren m\u00fczakerelerin ard\u0131ndan sonu\u00e7 al\u0131namadan sona erdi. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 J. D. Vance, Tahran'\u0131n \u00f6zellikle n\u00fckleer silah program\u0131ndan ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde feragat etmeyi reddetmesinin bir ilerleme kaydedilmesini engelledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran taraf\u0131 da ABD'nin taleplerinin \u00e7ok geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve temel farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n devam etti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtti. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ZDFheute'den canl\u0131 bir \u00f6zet yer almaktad\u0131r:<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_rcQiDYNZR78\"><div id=\"lyte_rcQiDYNZR78\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FrcQiDYNZR78%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/rcQiDYNZR78\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FrcQiDYNZR78%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\nVance: Anla\u015fma yok, \u0130ran ABD'yi ele\u015ftiriyor, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 hala kapal\u0131 | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@ZDFheute\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ZDFtoday canl\u0131<\/a><\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin y\u0131llard\u0131r bu d\u00fczeyde yap\u0131lan ilk do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme oldu\u011fu ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir ate\u015fkes zemininde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. \u0130lk ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kla birlikte, bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda diplomasinin uygulanabilir olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n daha da t\u0131rman\u0131p t\u0131rmanmayaca\u011f\u0131 sorusu bir kez daha g\u00fcndeme geldi. \u0130\u00e7inde <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/j-d-vance-ki%cc%87mdi%cc%87r-koekenleri%cc%87-kari%cc%87yeri%cc%87-celi%cc%87ski%cc%87leri%cc%87-ve-gelecegi%cc%87ni%cc%87n-bi%cc%87r-portresi%cc%87\/\"><strong>J. D. Vance hakk\u0131nda portre makalesi<\/strong><\/a> bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in Pakistan'a geli\u015fi ele al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>10.04.2026<\/strong>Eski General Roland Kather ile yap\u0131lan bir s\u00f6yle\u015fi, mevcut \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin temel bir soruyu g\u00fcndeme getiriyor:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Bu sava\u015ftan sonra \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re daha iyi olan nedir?<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Kather ac\u0131kl\u0131 bir de\u011ferlendirmeye var\u0131yor. Ne stratejik hedeflere ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131 ne de durum uzun vadede istikrara kavu\u015ftu. Aksine, \u0130ran askeri olarak hareket kabiliyetini koruyor, insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fcretmeye devam ediyor ve elinde f\u00fczeler var; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 bloke edilmi\u015f durumda ve ate\u015fkesin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Kather jeopolitik bir ilerleme de g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor - bunun yerine Rusya gibi di\u011fer oyuncular dolayl\u0131 olarak fayda sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_Izh-_xFQJ5E\"><div id=\"lyte_Izh-_xFQJ5E\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FIzh-_xFQJ5E%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Izh-_xFQJ5E\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FIzh-_xFQJ5E%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\n\u0130RAN SAVA\u015eI: \u201eABD'nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 klasik hatalardan biri!\u201c Kather'in hesapla\u015fmas\u0131 | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WELTVideoTV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">WELT haber kanal\u0131<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bu nedenle analizi, bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6tesinde \u00f6neme sahip temel bir soru ortaya koymaktad\u0131r: Askeri m\u00fcdahale ger\u00e7ekten ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki durumda bir iyile\u015fmeye yol a\u00e7\u0131yor mu, yoksa mevcut sorunlar\u0131 daha da m\u0131 derinle\u015ftiriyor? \u0130\u015fte tam da bu husus, g\u00fcncel geli\u015fmeler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir kez daha \u00f6nem kazanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>09.04.2026<\/strong>: Yak\u0131n zamanda yap\u0131lan uluslararas\u0131 ele\u015ftiriler<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/un-condemns-israeli-strikes-lebanon-calls-casualty-reports-appalling-2026-04-08\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong> Ate\u015fkes karar\u0131na ra\u011fmen L\u00fcbnan'da \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131<\/strong><\/a> \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131yor. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler, hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u201e\u015fok edici\u201c ve y\u00fcksek say\u0131daki sivil kay\u0131plar\u0131 \u201ekabul edilemez\u201c olarak nitelendirirken, uluslararas\u0131 hukukun olas\u0131 ihlallerine ili\u015fkin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z soru\u015fturmalar yap\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 zamanda, Avrupa i\u00e7indeki ton da sertle\u015fiyor: \u0130spanya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/sanchezcastejon\/status\/2041934569503346697\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>Pedro S\u00e1nchez k\u0131nand\u0131<\/strong><\/a> AB sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u015fiddetle k\u0131nad\u0131 ve insan hayat\u0131na ve uluslararas\u0131 hukuka y\u00f6nelik \u201etahamm\u00fcl edilemez\u201c bir muameleden s\u00f6z etti. Kamuoyuna yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada L\u00fcbnan'\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ate\u015fkese dahil edilmesi, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 alanda k\u0131nanmas\u0131 ve AB'nin \u0130srail ile ortakl\u0131k anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ask\u0131ya al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Genel olarak bu durum, \u00f6zellikle insani sonu\u00e7lar ve daha fazla b\u00f6lgesel t\u0131rmanma riski a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n geni\u015flemesine kar\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir diplomatik cephe oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>08.04.2026<\/strong>\u0130ran anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki durum \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde son dakikada yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131: ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen \u00fcltimatomun sona ermesine sadece 90 dakika kala, ABD ve \u0130ran <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sueddeutsche.de\/politik\/die-lage-im-ueberblick-usa-und-iran-einigen-sich-auf-eine-waffenruhe-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-260407-930-916831\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>ilk iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes<\/strong><\/a>. Bu sayede, daha \u00f6nce ciddi tehditler savrulmu\u015f olan geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 askeri harek\u00e2t \u015fimdilik \u00f6nlenmi\u015f oldu. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re bu geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, Pakistan'\u0131n da dahil oldu\u011fu ve her iki taraf\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ba\u015flamaya ikna eden diplomatik arabuluculuk giri\u015fimiyle tetiklendi. Anla\u015fman\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak stratejik \u00f6neme sahip H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131 ve bu da petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve mali piyasalar \u00fczerinde hemen olumlu bir etki yaratt\u0131. Bununla birlikte, durum k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumaktad\u0131r: ate\u015fkes ge\u00e7ici ve ko\u015fullara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak kabul edilirken, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7in daha ileri m\u00fczakereler hen\u00fcz ba\u015flamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>07.04.2026<\/strong>\u0130ran anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f yeni bir retorik seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131: S\u00fcddeutsche Zeitung'un son canl\u0131 bloguna g\u00f6re ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran y\u00f6netimini taleplerine yan\u0131t vermemesi halinde \u00fclkeyi tamamen yok etmekle a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a tehdit ediyor. Trump kelimenin tam anlam\u0131yla \u015funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sueddeutsche.de\/politik\/iran-krieg-liveblog-news-oelkrise-iea-birol-li.3458356\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em><strong>\u201ebu gece b\u00fct\u00fcn bi\u0307r medeni\u0307yet \u00f6lecek\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/a> e\u011fer bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lamazsa. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131'n\u0131n ablukaya al\u0131nmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak Tahran'\u0131 zaman bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131na al\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda askeri tehditler de somutla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor: Enerji santralleri ve k\u00f6pr\u00fcler gibi kilit altyap\u0131 birka\u00e7 saat i\u00e7inde tamamen yok edilebilir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/116363336033995961\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-5645\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Donald-Trump-Iran-Civilization.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"528\" height=\"307\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Donald-Trump-Iran-Civilization.jpg 1056w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Donald-Trump-Iran-Civilization-300x174.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Donald-Trump-Iran-Civilization-1024x595.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Donald-Trump-Iran-Civilization-768x447.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Donald-Trump-Iran-Civilization-18x10.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 528px) 100vw, 528px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6zlemciler alarm veriyor ve Orta Do\u011fu'nun \u00e7ok \u00f6tesine uzanabilecek yeni bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f konusunda uyar\u0131da bulunuyorlar. Enerji krizi de halihaz\u0131rda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fiddetlenmi\u015f durumda. Genel olarak, siyasi \u00fcltimatomlar ve askeri se\u00e7eneklerin birbiriyle yak\u0131ndan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu y\u00fcksek riskli bir dinamik izlenimi var.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_guEVPUmLHro\"><div id=\"lyte_guEVPUmLHro\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FguEVPUmLHro%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/guEVPUmLHro\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FguEVPUmLHro%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\nTrump \u0130ran'a \u00fcltimatomunu yineledi ve y\u0131k\u0131mla tehdit etti <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@faz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">faz<\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Mart 2026'daki \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fma gecesi<\/h2>\n<p>Son birka\u00e7 gecedir \u0130srail'in ba\u015f\u0131na gelenlere bakarsan\u0131z, bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ola\u011fan rutinlerin s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hemen fark edersiniz. Orta Do\u011fu on y\u0131llard\u0131r bir barut f\u0131\u00e7\u0131s\u0131, evet - ama bu yo\u011funluk, \u0130srail topraklar\u0131na k\u0131sa aral\u0131klarla ya\u011fan bu mermi y\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015fka bir \u015fey. Sanki b\u00fct\u00fcn bir g\u00fcvenlik mimarisi sistemi aniden teklemeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f gibi.<\/p>\n<p>Ve \u00f6zellikle dikkat \u00e7ekici olan, Bat\u0131l\u0131 haber raporlar\u0131nda neredeyse efsanevi bir \u015fekilde romantikle\u015ftirilen \u00fcnl\u00fc Demir Kubbe'nin bu saatler boyunca neredeyse hi\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemi\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7ok az say\u0131da \u00f6nleme f\u00fczesi, neredeyse hi\u00e7 izleyici, ama daha fazla darbe. Y\u0131llard\u0131r neredeyse hatas\u0131z oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen bir savunma sisteminin aniden bunalm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi sadece askeri bir ayr\u0131nt\u0131 de\u011fil, jeopolitik bir sinyaldir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri - s\u00fcslenmemi\u015f, d\u00fczenlenmemi\u015f, ham - haberlerde g\u00f6remezsiniz. Ama bir \u00fclkenin g\u00fc\u00e7 duygusunu \u015fekillendirirler. Ayr\u0131ca izleyenlerin duygular\u0131n\u0131 da \u015fekillendirirler. Bu t\u00fcr g\u00f6rsel malzemeler t\u00fcm toplumlar\u0131 tedirgin eder. Yeni oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in de\u011fil, uzun s\u00fcre bast\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in.<\/p>\n<h3>Bu t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu kadar tehlikeli yapan nedir?<\/h3>\n<p>Elbette ge\u00e7mi\u015fte de \u0130srail ile \u0130ran ya da \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edilen gruplar aras\u0131nda \u015fiddet olaylar\u0131 ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu yeni bir \u015fey de\u011fil. Ancak \u015fimdi farkl\u0131 olan \u00fc\u00e7 fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn bir araya gelmesidir:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>\u0130ran, \u0130srail'in direncinin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 kasten test ediyor<\/strong>. Se\u00e7ici olarak de\u011fil, haftalar ve aylar boyunca stratejik olarak.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0130srail i\u00e7 siyasi bir kriz ya\u015f\u0131yor<\/strong>. B\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f bir toplum, d\u0131\u015f tehditlere kar\u015f\u0131 her zamankinden daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez tepkiler vermektedir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Uluslararas\u0131 koruma mekanizmalar\u0131 her zamankinden daha zay\u0131f<\/strong>. ABD'nin askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olabilir ama siyasi olarak fel\u00e7 olmu\u015f durumda. Avrupa'n\u0131n zaten dikkati da\u011f\u0131n\u0131k ve g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz. \u00c7in ve Rusya kendi g\u00fcndemlerinin pe\u015finde.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Bu \u00fc\u00e7 noktay\u0131 bir araya getirdi\u011finizde sorunun derinli\u011finin fark\u0131na var\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z: bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sadece iki devlet aras\u0131ndaki bir anla\u015fmazl\u0131k de\u011fildir. Bu, k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin bir ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Ola\u011fan raporlama neden ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olur?<\/h3>\n<p>Medyam\u0131zda bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma genellikle uzak, belki trajik ama bir \u015fekilde \u201ekontroll\u00fc\u201c bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ekonomi raporlar\u0131 ve hava durumu haritalar\u0131 aras\u0131na yerle\u015ftirilmi\u015f bir ak\u015fam haberleri par\u00e7as\u0131. Sosyal a\u011flarda dola\u015fan \u015fiddetli g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler orada g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Gece boyunca ya\u015fanan darbeler, sars\u0131nt\u0131lar, savunman\u0131n g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 - t\u00fcm bunlar yumu\u015fat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Belki de panik yaratmak istemedikleri i\u00e7indir.<\/li>\n<li>Belki de n\u00fcfusun yeterince diren\u00e7li olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7indir.<\/li>\n<li>Ama belki de durumun ciddiyetini hafife ald\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7indir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bilgi eksikli\u011fi tesad\u00fcf de\u011fildir. Bu bir risktir. Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir temele dayanmadan bilgilendirilen toplumlar i\u00e7g\u00fcd\u00fcsel olarak yanl\u0131\u015f siyasi kararlar al\u0131rlar. \u015eu anda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z da tam olarak bu: anlayacak ara\u00e7lar olmaks\u0131z\u0131n artan bir huzursuzluk.<\/p>\n<h3>G\u00fcvenlik a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131lan bir gece sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>Bu video Orta Do\u011fu'daki durumun ne kadar ani bir \u015fekilde t\u0131rmanabilece\u011fini etkileyici bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6steriyor. Tel Aviv'e y\u00f6nelik yo\u011fun roket ate\u015fi, siren sesleri ve g\u00f6ky\u00fcz\u00fcndeki patlamalar e\u015fli\u011finde b\u00f6lgenin stratejik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koyuyor. Sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 engellenmi\u015f olsa da, yeterli say\u0131da mermi kentsel alana ula\u015farak can kay\u0131plar\u0131na ve ciddi hasara neden oldu.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_rIeSkaYaPzA\"><div id=\"lyte_rIeSkaYaPzA\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FrIeSkaYaPzA%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/rIeSkaYaPzA\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FrIeSkaYaPzA%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\n\u0130ran f\u00fczeleri Tel Aviv'i sars\u0131yor, sirenler \u00e7al\u0131yor ve patlamalar oluyor. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@tribuntimur\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Trib\u00fcn Timur<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 sahneler videoda birka\u00e7 kez tekrarlan\u0131yor. Bu bak\u0131mdan videonun tamam\u0131n\u0131 izlemeye de\u011fmez, ancak bir k\u0131sm\u0131 bile sahadaki durum hakk\u0131nda bir izlenim veriyor. Birka\u00e7 dakika i\u00e7inde milyonlarca insan g\u00fcvenlik hatt\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar ince oldu\u011funu fark etti. \u0130\u015fte tam da bu teknik a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcklenme ve siyasi y\u00fcksek bask\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131, zaman\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n t\u0131rmanma mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tan\u0131mlamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Tarihin geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/h3>\n<p>Beni \u00f6zellikle endi\u015felendiren \u015fey: \u015eu anda Avrupa'da \u00fcstesinden geldi\u011fimizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma t\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Birbirlerini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a tehdit eden devletler. N\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7ler birbirlerini s\u0131n\u0131yor. B\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7ler Bat\u0131'ya en hassas noktalar\u0131nda meydan okuyor. G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u015fey tesad\u00fcfi bir \u015fiddet patlamas\u0131 de\u011fil; bu uzun vadeli bir stratejinin par\u00e7as\u0131 ve art\u0131k Bat\u0131'n\u0131n kurallar\u0131na g\u00f6re oynam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Tarih geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yap\u0131yor. Ve bunu pek \u00e7ok ki\u015finin beklemedi\u011fi bir titizlikle yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 b\u00f6l\u00fcmde size bu t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fla ilgili ger\u00e7ekte neyin yeni oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermek istiyorum. Bat\u0131'n\u0131n bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 neden zar zor y\u00f6nlendirebildi\u011fini. \u0130srail ve \u0130ran'\u0131n neden ka\u00e7makta zorlanacaklar\u0131 stratejik bir k\u0131skaca yakaland\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131. Ve neden medyan\u0131n duruma ili\u015fkin alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekte neler oldu\u011funu yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu krizin neden bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olabilece\u011fini anlamak istiyorsan\u0131z - jeopolitik, g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 ve medya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan - o zaman sonraki b\u00f6l\u00fcmleri bir alet \u00e7antas\u0131 olarak okuyabilirsiniz. Basit cevaplar verdikleri i\u00e7in de\u011fil, olaylar\u0131 tarihsel bir ba\u011flama oturttuklar\u0131 i\u00e7in. \u015eimdi bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n temelini olu\u015fturan yap\u0131lar\u0131 inceleyece\u011fiz. Ve neden bu kadar tehlikeli olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<h2>80 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bat\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 ve erozyonu<\/h2>\n<p>\u0130srail ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n stratejik a\u00e7\u0131dan neden bu kadar patlay\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu anlamak istiyorsan\u0131z, bir \u015feyi kabul etmeniz gerekir: Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma aniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. Bu, 1945'ten bu yana ger\u00e7eklikten gittik\u00e7e uzakla\u015fan bir Bat\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcd\u00fcr. Ve tam da Bat\u0131'n\u0131n temel varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 on y\u0131llard\u0131r ilk kez a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a sorgulanmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, ge\u00e7mi\u015fe nostaljik olarak de\u011fil ama a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde bakmakta fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn yanl\u0131\u015f kararlar\u0131n\u0131n bir\u00e7o\u011fu ancak on y\u0131llar boyunca nas\u0131l bir yan\u0131lsama \u00e7er\u00e7evesi in\u015fa edildi\u011fini fark ederseniz anla\u015f\u0131labilir. Ve bu \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131'ndan sonra, yap\u0131sal olarak farkl\u0131 ama yine de bug\u00fcnle \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 say\u0131da entelekt\u00fcel paralellikleri olan bir d\u00fcnyada ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<h3>Sava\u015f sonras\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir d\u00fczen yan\u0131lsamas\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>1945\u201eten sonra Bat\u0131'da ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7, askeri cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k ve ahlaki standartlar\u0131n bir kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla istikrarl\u0131, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir d\u00fcnya yarat\u0131labilece\u011fi inanc\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD - o zamanlar hala tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131z s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 rol\u00fcndeydi - k\u00fcresel hakem rol\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcstlendi. Avrupa da g\u00fcvenli\u011fin \u201ckirli i\u015flerini\" bir ba\u015fkas\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in mutlu bir \u015fekilde s\u0131raya girdi.<\/p>\n<p>Bu model on y\u0131llar boyunca inan\u0131lmaz derecede iyi \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sovyetler Birli\u011fi cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131kla kontrol alt\u0131nda tutuluyordu.<\/li>\n<li>Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131 par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f bir halde kald\u0131.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130ran 1979 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar Bat\u0131 kamp\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Plan basitti: E\u011fer biz yeterince g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olursak, di\u011ferleri \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir kal\u0131r. Ama i\u015fe yarad\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc o zamanlar d\u00fcnya bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kadar birbirine ba\u011fl\u0131 de\u011fildi. Ve Bat\u0131 rakiplerini hafife ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in - bu gelenek bug\u00fcne kadar devam etti.<\/p>\n<h3>D\u00f6n\u00fcm noktalar\u0131: 1979 \u0130ran'\u0131 ve yeni ger\u00e7ekler<\/h3>\n<p>\u0130slam Devrimi ile her \u015fey de\u011fi\u015fti. \u0130ran Bat\u0131 etkisinden koptu ve dini, ideolojik ve stratejik olarak kendi d\u00fczenini in\u015fa etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Avrupa ve ABD bunun bir a\u015fama oldu\u011funu umarken, \u0130ran bug\u00fcn her yerde hissedebilece\u011finiz, onlarca y\u0131l s\u00fcrecek \u201estratejik sab\u0131r\u201c politikas\u0131na ba\u015flad\u0131. Bat\u0131 perspektifinin neden bu kadar s\u0131k ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ancak burada anla\u015f\u0131labilir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bat\u0131, yasama d\u00f6nemlerinde planlar yapar.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130ran nesiller boyu plan yap\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu durum, bug\u00fcn \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada merkezi bir rol oynayan ilk yap\u0131sal dengesizli\u011fi yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n<h3>Onlarca y\u0131ll\u0131k a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 geni\u015fleme: Irak, Afganistan, Libya, Suriye<\/h3>\n<p>Bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck hata ise jeopolitik sistemlerin m\u00fcdahale yoluyla istikrara kavu\u015fturulabilece\u011fine inan\u0131lmas\u0131yd\u0131. Bat\u0131'n\u0131n son 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda bir \u015fablon g\u00f6receksiniz:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Afganistan<\/strong>20 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir operasyon ve Taliban birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u00fclkeyi ele ge\u00e7iriyor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Irak<\/strong>Bir rejim devrildi ama b\u00fct\u00fcn bir \u00fclke kaosa s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Libya<\/strong>Kuzey Afrika'y\u0131 istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131ran bir \u201einsani m\u00fcdahale\u201c.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Suriye<\/strong>Kazanan\u0131 olmayan bir vekalet sava\u015f\u0131 - Bat\u0131'y\u0131 zay\u0131flatmak isteyenler d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu vakalar\u0131n her birinde Bat\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc: \u201eBiz nas\u0131l istikrar yarat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz\u201c. Ve her seferinde bunun tam tersinin do\u011fru oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bug\u00fcn \u0130ran ve \u0130srail ile ya\u015fanan sefalet bundan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z de\u011fildir. Bu hatalar\u0131n toplam\u0131 \u015fimdi meyvelerini veriyor.<\/p>\n<h3>Bat\u0131 kendini neden g\u00f6z\u00fcnde b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc?<\/h3>\n<p>Bu, klasik siyasi analizlerde neredeyse hi\u00e7 yer almayan \u00f6nemli bir noktad\u0131r: Bat\u0131 uzun s\u00fcre kendi de\u011ferlerinin evrensel oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc. Demokrasi, liberalizm, laiklik - bu kavramlar\u0131n d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda apa\u00e7\u0131k olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi varsay\u0131ld\u0131. Ve sadece birka\u00e7 ses, di\u011fer k\u00fclt\u00fcrlerin iktidar, din ve devlete tamamen farkl\u0131 bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na sahip oldu\u011fu konusunda uyar\u0131da bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran bunu en a\u00e7\u0131k \u015fekilde g\u00f6steren \u00fclkelerden biridir. Oradaki rejim irrasyonel de\u011fildir - kendi tarihsel ve dini mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde rasyoneldir. \u0130\u015fte bu rasyonellik, Bat\u0131'n\u0131n d\u00fcnya g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne uymad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in hi\u00e7bir zaman ger\u00e7ekten anlayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015feydir.<\/p>\n<p>Buna bir de teknolojik \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011fe duyulan inan\u00e7 eklendi: insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131, f\u00fcze savunmas\u0131, siber sava\u015f, g\u00f6zetleme sistemleri. Her \u015fey kontrol edilebilir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyordu - ta ki d\u00fc\u015fman sistemleri a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcklemeyi ya da bypass etmeyi \u00f6\u011frenene kadar. Bug\u00fcn g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gece sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sadece askeri olaylar de\u011fildir. Bat\u0131'n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmekte oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini sembolize ediyorlar.<\/p>\n<h3>Sonu\u00e7lar: Sadece ka\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde var olan bir d\u00fczen<\/h3>\n<p>Mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, Bat\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik mimarisindeki \u00fc\u00e7 temel zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya koymaktad\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Bat\u0131 art\u0131k \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na alam\u0131yor<\/strong>. ABD bile bu t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 kendisi de i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekilmeden durdurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Avrupa g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131<\/strong>. Temyiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir \u015fey gelmiyor. Ve t\u00fcm oyuncular bunu biliyor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yeni g\u00fc\u00e7ler g\u00fcvenle ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor<\/strong> - ve art\u0131k Bat\u0131'n\u0131n beklentilerini umursam\u0131yorlar. Buna sadece \u00c7in ve Rusya de\u011fil, daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a provoke etmeye cesaret edemeyen b\u00f6lgesel oyuncular da dahil.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131: eski d\u00fczen sadece retorikte var. Ger\u00e7ekte ise neredeyse hi\u00e7 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yoktur.<\/p>\n<h3>Bu tarihsel arka plan neden \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli?<\/h3>\n<p>Mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n dram\u0131n\u0131 anlamak istiyorsan\u0131z, Bat\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131ndaki erozyonun ne kadar derin oldu\u011funu kabul etmeniz gerekir. Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmadan her \u015fey kendili\u011finden geli\u015fen bir t\u0131rmanma, \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olaylar\u0131n talihsiz bir tesad\u00fcf\u00fc gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr. Ger\u00e7ekte ise onlarca y\u0131ll\u0131k yanl\u0131\u015f de\u011ferlendirmelerin mant\u0131ksal bir sonucudur.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130srail ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7ok tehlikeli \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc zaten \u00e7atlak olan bir temel \u00fczerine in\u015fa edilmi\u015f durumda. Ve \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc eskiden gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyen mekanizmalar bug\u00fcn neredeyse hi\u00e7 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte tam da bu mekanizmalar\u0131 ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerde ad\u0131m ad\u0131m incelemeye devam edece\u011fiz ki bu krizin neden b\u00f6lgesel bir anla\u015fmazl\u0131ktan daha fazlas\u0131 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6rebilesiniz. Bu, Bat\u0131'n\u0131n d\u00fcnyadaki rol\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcremeyece\u011fi ya da yeni bir d\u00f6neme girip girmedi\u011fimiz sorusu i\u00e7in bir test vakas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-5218 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Erosion.jpg\" alt=\"Bat\u0131&#039;n\u0131n stratejik erozyonu\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Erosion.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Erosion-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Erosion-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Erosion-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>\u0130ran'\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 mant\u0131\u011f\u0131: Bat\u0131 rasyonalitesi olmadan rasyonalite<\/h2>\n<p>Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 anlamak istiyorsan\u0131z, \u00f6ncelikle bir \u015feyin fark\u0131na varmal\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z: \u0130ran'daki liderlik irrasyonel de\u011fil. Sadece Bat\u0131'da neredeyse hi\u00e7 kimsenin hakim olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da fark\u0131na bile varamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir mant\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re hareket ediyor. Rejim se\u00e7im d\u00f6nemleri, halkla ili\u015fkiler stratejileri ya da k\u0131sa vadeli ba\u015far\u0131 hikayeleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Uzun vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. On y\u0131llar, hatta bazen nesiller.<\/p>\n<p>Bu uzun vadeli bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara, uluslararas\u0131 izolasyona ve d\u00f6nemsel protestolara ra\u011fmen sistemin 1979'dan bu yana istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n nedenidir. Bat\u0131 genellikle istikrar\u0131 inat\u00e7\u0131l\u0131k ya da geri kalm\u0131\u015fl\u0131k olarak yorumlar. Ger\u00e7ekte ise bu stratejik sab\u0131rd\u0131r. Denenmi\u015f ve test edilmi\u015f bir y\u00f6netim ilkesidir ve \u0130ranl\u0131 se\u00e7kinlerin tarihsel \u00f6z imaj\u0131nda derin k\u00f6kleri vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran y\u00f6netimi jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fimleri fevri bir \u015fekilde de\u011fil, kademeli olarak de\u011ferlendirmektedir. Her provokasyon, b\u00f6lgesel hakimiyet, ideolojik istikrar, d\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015fmanlara kar\u015f\u0131 cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k ve kendi halk\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k bir mesaj vermek gibi daha geni\u015f bir hedefler yelpazesi i\u00e7inde yer al\u0131yor. Rejimi Bat\u0131l\u0131 analistler i\u00e7in hesaplanmas\u0131 zor ama kendi perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede istikrarl\u0131 k\u0131lan da tam olarak bu kar\u0131\u015f\u0131md\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Rejim ve halk\u0131: Huzursuzluk neden Bat\u0131'n\u0131n bekledi\u011fi sonucu do\u011furmuyor?<\/h3>\n<p>Bat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck hatalardan biri, \u0130ran'da g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir ho\u015fnutsuzlu\u011fun ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsaymakt\u0131r. Ancak protestolar otomatik olarak devrim anlam\u0131na gelmez. Ve tarihin de g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi devrimler bile \u00e7o\u011fu zaman Bat\u0131'n\u0131n istedi\u011fi \u015fekilde sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran binlerce y\u0131ll\u0131k k\u00fclt\u00fcrel, dini ve ulusal deneyime sahip bir \u00fclkedir. Derin bir heteronomi, gurur ve kendini kan\u0131tlama anlat\u0131s\u0131 var. Pek \u00e7ok \u0130ranl\u0131 liderlikten memnun olmayabilir, ancak i\u00e7inde ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi kabul ediyorlar - k\u0131smen alternatif daha az g\u00fcvenli, daha kaotik veya daha tehlikeli olarak alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in.<\/p>\n<p>Bir\u00e7ok Bat\u0131l\u0131 siyaset\u00e7i ve medyan\u0131n hafife ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fey de tam olarak budur. \u0130ran d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan \u201e\u00f6zg\u00fcrle\u015ftirilmeyi\u201c bekleyen bir toplum de\u011fil. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 kendi mant\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fcr\u00fcten bir toplumdur - bazen patlay\u0131c\u0131, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman bast\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, ancak neredeyse her zaman kendisini Bat\u0131 modellerine y\u00f6neltme arzusu olmadan.<\/p>\n<p>Bat\u0131, organik hareketler olmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen rejimi zay\u0131flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rsa, genellikle tam tersini ba\u015far\u0131r: sistem saflar\u0131 kapat\u0131r, ulusal onura ba\u015fvurur ve d\u0131\u015f tehditleri bir me\u015fruiyet kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak kullanabilir. 1979'dan beri g\u00fcvenilir bir \u015fekilde i\u015fleyen bir mekanizma. \u0130\u015fte tam da bu y\u00fczden do\u011frudan d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahale ters etki yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Uzun bir ge\u00e7mi\u015fe sahip b\u00f6lgesel bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak \u0130ran<\/h3>\n<p>Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 yorumlamak i\u00e7in \u0130ran'\u0131n art\u0131k bir\u00e7ok devlet aras\u0131nda sadece bir devlet olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamal\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z. Siyasi, askeri ve ideolojik olarak b\u00f6lgesel bir g\u00fc\u00e7. Bu rol\u00fc ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7le de\u011fil, uzun vadeli bir vekiller a\u011f\u0131 ve n\u00fcfuz b\u00f6lgeleri arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla elde etti.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran, Irak, Suriye, L\u00fcbnan, Yemen ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde milisler, siyasi partiler, dini kurumlar ve ekonomik a\u011flar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla faaliyet g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu yap\u0131lar \u00e7e\u015fitli i\u015flevleri yerine getirmektedir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong>\u0130srail ya da ABD, \u0130ran'a y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 tetikleyebilece\u011fini biliyor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Etki projeksiyonu<\/strong>\u0130ran a\u00e7\u0131k bir sava\u015fa girmek zorunda kalmadan g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rabilir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Maliyet minimizasyonu<\/strong>Vekalet sava\u015flar\u0131 do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara g\u00f6re daha ucuz ve siyasi a\u00e7\u0131dan daha az risklidir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu a\u011f, \u0130ran'\u0131n kendi ekonomik durumu ne olursa olsun ciddiye al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken bir oyuncu olarak kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bat\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6zlemciler bunu \u201eistikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131\u201c olarak g\u00f6rebilirler - Tahran i\u00e7in bu sadece bir hayatta kalma stratejisidir.<\/p>\n<p>Bat\u0131l\u0131 analizlerin yanl\u0131\u015f anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 nokta da tam olarak buras\u0131d\u0131r: ekonomik olarak zor durumda olan bir \u00fclkenin otomatik olarak askeri a\u00e7\u0131dan da zay\u0131f olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi. Oysa b\u00f6lgesel bir g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc refahla de\u011fil, jeopolitik kald\u0131ra\u00e7larla tan\u0131mlar. Ve \u0130ran bu kald\u0131ra\u00e7lar\u0131 m\u00fckemmelle\u015ftirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<h3>Man\u015fetlerin \u00f6tesinde \u0130ran - g\u00fcndelik hayata ve topluma bir bak\u0131\u015f<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/i%cc%87rani-anlamak-mansetleri%cc%87n-oetesi%cc%87nde-guenluek-yasam-protestolar-ve-cikarlar\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-4498\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Iran-Titel-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\u0130ran&#039;\u0131 Anlamak\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Iran-Titel-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Iran-Titel-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Iran-Titel-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Iran-Titel.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>\u0130ran'\u0131 \u00e7evreleyen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n neden bu kadar karma\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011funu anlamak istiyorsan\u0131z, \u00f6nce bir ad\u0131m geri atmal\u0131 ve \u00fclkenin kendisine daha yak\u0131ndan bakmal\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 arka plan makalemde <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/i%cc%87rani-anlamak-mansetleri%cc%87n-oetesi%cc%87nde-guenluek-yasam-protestolar-ve-cikarlar\/\"><em><strong>\u201e\u0130ran'\u0131 Anlamak: Man\u015fetlerin \u00f6tesinde g\u00fcndelik hayat, protestolar ve \u00e7\u0131karlar\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/a> tam da bununla ilgili: f\u00fczeler, n\u00fckleer programlar ya da jeopolitik stratejilerle de\u011fil, bir toplum olarak \u0130ran'la ilgili. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc pek \u00e7ok insan bu \u00fclkeyi hi\u00e7 tecr\u00fcbe etmemi\u015f olsa da, ba\u015fka hi\u00e7bir \u00fclke sabit imgelerle (dini y\u00f6netim, protestolar ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarla ilgili imgeler) bu kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde karakterize edilmemi\u015ftir. Makale, alg\u0131lar\u0131n anlat\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde \u015fekillendirildi\u011fini ve \u0130ran'daki g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015fam\u0131n, siyasi gerilimlerin ve uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n neden basit man\u015fetlerin g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden \u00e7ok daha \u00e7eli\u015fkili oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<h3>Bat\u0131, \u0130ran'\u0131n stratejisini hi\u00e7bir zaman ger\u00e7ekten anlamad\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>Bat\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131n temel hatas\u0131 her zaman \u0130ran'\u0131n kararlar\u0131n\u0131 Bat\u0131 rasyonalitesiyle yorumlamak olmu\u015ftur. Ancak Tahran'daki liderlik tamamen farkl\u0131 bir \u00f6nceliklendirme izlemektedir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Rejimin korunmas\u0131 her \u015feyin \u00fcst\u00fcnde<\/strong>Her \u015fey - ger\u00e7ekten her \u015fey - sistemin istikrar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi ya da zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0130deolojik tutarl\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong>\u0130ran, dini ve siyasi imaj\u0131na zarar vermeden i\u00e7 politikadan vazge\u00e7emez.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Uzun vadeli cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong>Kendisini Bat\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan tehdit alt\u0131nda g\u00f6ren bir rejim, m\u00fczakere etmek yerine sars\u0131lmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmal\u0131d\u0131r.<br \/>\nStratejik sab\u0131r<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bat\u0131l\u0131 siyaset\u00e7iler d\u00f6rt y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6ng\u00fclerle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrken, \u0130ran onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r ayn\u0131 hedefler \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu yap\u0131 Avrupa ya da ABD'nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tam tersidir. \u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden sistemler birbirlerini ger\u00e7ekten anlamadan d\u00fczenli olarak \u00e7arp\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran ve \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki mevcut gerginlik, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin fevri hareket etmesinin bir sonucu de\u011fildir. \u0130ran'\u0131n on y\u0131llard\u0131r izledi\u011fi stratejik \u00e7izginin bir par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r: b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuzunu geni\u015fletmek, cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmak, \u0130srail \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmak ve ABD'yi b\u00f6lgeden \u00e7\u0131kmaya zorlamak.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6yle bir mant\u0131kta, gerilemeye neredeyse hi\u00e7 yer yoktur. E\u011fer \u0130ran \u015fu anda kitlesel olarak f\u00fcze konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131yorsa, bunun nedeni \u201ecesaretini kaybetmesi\u201c de\u011fil, b\u00f6lgedeki, Bat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki ve kendi halk\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki konumunu sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rmak istemesidir. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bu kadar tehlikeli k\u0131lan da bu: do\u011fa\u00e7lama de\u011fil. Y\u0131llard\u0131r devam eden stratejik bir plan\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131. \u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden Bat\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015fkentlerin istedi\u011fi gibi basit\u00e7e \u201em\u00fczakere edilemez\u201c, \u201edondurulamaz\u201c ya da \u201esona erdirilemez\u201c.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-5220\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Tel-Aviv.jpg\" alt=\"30 y\u0131ll\u0131k alarmizm\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Tel-Aviv.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Tel-Aviv-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Tel-Aviv-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Tel-Aviv-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Netanyahu ve 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k alarmc\u0131l\u0131k - Kal\u0131c\u0131 uyar\u0131n\u0131n tarihi<\/h2>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn geriye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda neredeyse ger\u00e7ek\u00fcst\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor: 1990\u201elar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana Benjamin Netanyahu defalarca ayn\u0131 tehlikeye kar\u015f\u0131 uyar\u0131da bulundu - \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer bomba yapman\u0131n \u201ce\u015fi\u011finde\" oldu\u011fu konusunda. Ve her seferinde dramatik bir tonla, grafiklerle, diyagramlarla, her zaman ayn\u0131 mesajla:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201eVakit neredeyse geldi, harekete ge\u00e7meliyiz.\u201c<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Bu uyar\u0131lar t\u00fcm \u0130srail g\u00fcvenlik doktrinini \u015fekillendirdi. ABD politikas\u0131n\u0131, Avrupa diplomasisini ve \u0130ran'\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 alg\u0131lan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 etkilediler. Ancak dikkat \u00e7ekici olan, uyar\u0131lar\u0131n on y\u0131llar boyunca tekrarlanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ve belirleyici an\u0131n hi\u00e7bir zaman ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u0130ran'\u0131n zarars\u0131z ya da iddias\u0131z oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Ancak 30 y\u0131ld\u0131r ayn\u0131 retori\u011fin kullan\u0131l\u0131yor olmas\u0131n\u0131n stratejik bir yan etkisi var: retorik y\u0131pran\u0131yor. \u00c7ok s\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131nan bir alarm etkisini kaybeder. Mevcut durumun bu kadar hassas olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedenlerinden biri de tam olarak budur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc durumun ilk kez ger\u00e7ekten kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi bir anda, eski alarm \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 zedelenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>Dahas\u0131, on y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcren bu uyar\u0131 politikas\u0131, \u0130srail'in stratejik itibar\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmeden art\u0131k geri d\u00f6nemeyece\u011fi bir mant\u0131\u011fa giderek daha derinden kaymas\u0131na neden oldu. On y\u0131llard\u0131r \u201eD\u00fc\u015fman varolu\u015fsal olarak tehlikeli hale gelmenin e\u015fi\u011finde\u201c diyen biri, daha sonra kendi politikas\u0131n\u0131 sorgulamadan daha az \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131 bir tutum benimseyemez.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_Mzmtdwsef8s\"><div id=\"lyte_Mzmtdwsef8s\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FMzmtdwsef8s%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Mzmtdwsef8s\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FMzmtdwsef8s%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\nBenjamin Netanyahu'nun 33 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u0130ran n\u00fckleer uyar\u0131lar\u0131 | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@aljazeeraenglish\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Al Jazeera English<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>Bu alarmc\u0131l\u0131k neden stratejik olarak geri tepti?<\/h3>\n<p>Alarmc\u0131l\u0131k k\u0131sa vadede siyasi avantajlar sa\u011flayabilir. \u0130\u00e7 politikada bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r, destek toplar ve sert \u00f6nlemleri me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Ancak uzun vadede ba\u015fka bir sorun ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: bir noktadan sonra d\u00fcnya art\u0131k ger\u00e7ekten dinlemiyor. \u0130srail'de alarmc\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fcped\u00fcz kurumsalla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ancak \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda etkisi giderek azald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bunda iki geli\u015fme merkezi bir rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Bat\u0131 yoruldu<\/strong>Y\u0131llar ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e uluslararas\u0131 toplum - \u00f6zellikle ABD ve Avrupa - uyar\u0131lara giderek daha rutin bir \u015fekilde tepki verdi: \u201e\u0130ran bomban\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde\u201c ciddiye al\u0131nan bir ifade haline geldi, ancak art\u0131k akut bir acil durum olarak kategorize edilmedi. Bu durum \u0130srail'in bask\u0131 bekledi\u011fi ancak Bat\u0131'n\u0131n diplomatik yumu\u015famay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fi bir ortam yaratt\u0131.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0130ran alarmizmle ya\u015famay\u0131 \u00f6\u011frendi<\/strong>\u0130ran rejimi g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc korkutmak yerine bu uyar\u0131lar\u0131 kullanmaya bile ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu uyar\u0131lar \u0130ran'\u0131n kendisini Bat\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesinin kurban\u0131 olarak g\u00f6stermesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Ve rejimi b\u00f6lgesel a\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmek i\u00e7in motive ettiler - tam da \u0130srail ya da ABD'nin bir noktada ger\u00e7ekten askeri olarak sald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla alarmizmin paradoksal bir etkisi oldu: sonu\u00e7ta zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 ama\u00e7lananlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Ancak daha da vahim olan bir \u015fey var: s\u00fcrekli tekrarlar y\u00fcz\u00fcnden Bat\u0131, ger\u00e7ek t\u0131rmanma sinyalleri alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti. \u0130\u015fte \u015fimdi intikam\u0131n\u0131 alan da tam olarak budur, zira \u00e7ok uzun zamand\u0131r ilk kez tehdidin ger\u00e7ek, dinamik ve akut oldu\u011fu bir durum ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>30 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u201ebomba yak\u0131nda geliyor\u201c politikas\u0131n\u0131n bedeli<\/h3>\n<p>On y\u0131llar s\u00fcren retorik daha fazla stratejik hasara neden oldu: \u0130srail politikas\u0131n\u0131 giderek daha az manevra alan\u0131 b\u0131rakan bir \u00e7izgiye ba\u011flad\u0131. On y\u0131llar boyunca insanlara \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer kapasiteye sahip olmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyece\u011finize dair g\u00fcvence verirseniz, bir noktada sadece iki se\u00e7enek kal\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Hedefinize ula\u015ft\u0131n\u0131z.<\/li>\n<li>Yoksa cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k yetkinli\u011finizi kaybedersiniz.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc gerilimi karakterize eden de tam olarak bu \u00e7\u0131kmazd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>\u0130\u00e7 politikan\u0131n sertle\u015fmesi<\/h3>\n<p>Netanyahu y\u0131llar boyunca, herhangi bir yumu\u015fama imas\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131fl\u0131k olarak yorumland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir siyasi k\u00fclt\u00fcr in\u015fa etti. Bu durum \u0130srail'de diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlere \u00e7ok az yer b\u0131rakan bir i\u00e7 siyasi beklenti bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Toplum yava\u015f yava\u015f tavizsiz g\u00fcc\u00fcn tek \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir tutuma \u015fartland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>S\u00fcrekli uyar\u0131 nedeniyle \u0130srail \u015fu anda ger\u00e7ek bir \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n -\u015fu anda oldu\u011fu gibi- otomatik olarak onlarca y\u0131ll\u0131k anlat\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frulanmas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir durumda. Geri ad\u0131m atmak neredeyse imkans\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu t\u00fcm tarihsel arg\u00fcman\u0131 zay\u0131flatacakt\u0131r. Bu da \u0130srail'i bug\u00fcn bir ikilemle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rak\u0131yor:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>E\u011fer \u00e7ok teredd\u00fctl\u00fc davran\u0131rsa, cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaybeder.<\/li>\n<li>\u00c7ok sert davran\u0131rsa, durum kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bu kadar tehlikeli k\u0131lan da tam olarak bu: art\u0131k sadece \u0130ran'\u0131n davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na bir tepki de\u011fil. On y\u0131llarca s\u00fcren kendi kendine ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir sonucudur.<\/p>\n<h3>Uluslararas\u0131 yorgunluk<\/h3>\n<p>Ve bir de Bat\u0131 var. ABD siyasi olarak t\u00fckenmi\u015f durumda, Avrupa ise g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan fel\u00e7 olmu\u015f durumda. \u0130srail'in uyar\u0131lar\u0131 duyulsa da bunlar\u0131 dikkate alma kabiliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Bu da \u0130srail'in gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rmak istese bile Bat\u0131'n\u0131n bunun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kabul edece\u011finden art\u0131k emin olamayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu da \u0130srail'in muhtemelen Bat\u0131'n\u0131n istedi\u011finden daha sert tepki verece\u011fi ve ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130srail'in bekledi\u011finden daha az destek alaca\u011f\u0131 bir duruma yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Her iki taraf i\u00e7in de stratejik bir kabus.<\/p>\n<p>Netanyahu'nun 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k alarmizmini analiz etmek sadece tarihsel bir sapma de\u011fildir. Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn dinamiklerini anlamak i\u00e7in merkezi bir \u00f6neme sahiptir. \u0130srail kendisini sadece tepkisel de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda on y\u0131llar boyunca kendi yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda tepkisel davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir durumda buluyor. \u0130ran da bunu biliyor ve bundan faydalan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm, makalenin sonraki b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerine k\u00f6pr\u00fc olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r: n\u00fckleer risk, stratejik \u00e7\u0131kmaz ve bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, net kararlar\u0131n bile art\u0131k net bir sonucu garanti etmedi\u011fi bir a\u015famaya nas\u0131l girebilece\u011fi sorusu.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-5219 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Schach.jpg\" alt=\"\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma her stratejistin kabusudur\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Schach.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Schach-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Schach-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Schach-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma neden her stratejistin kabusu?<\/h2>\n<p>Mevcut duruma so\u011fukkanl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda, \u0130srail'in kendisini modern tarihte neredeyse hi\u00e7 tekrarlanmam\u0131\u015f bir g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 tuza\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde buldu\u011funu hemen fark edersiniz. Bunun nedeni \u00fclkenin askeri a\u00e7\u0131dan zay\u0131f olmas\u0131 de\u011fil - tam tersine. \u0130srail d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en modern ordular\u0131ndan birine, ke\u015fif, hassas silah sistemlerine ve onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r uygulanan bir savunma doktrinine sahip. Ancak paradoksal bir \u015fekilde, bug\u00fcn sorunun bir par\u00e7as\u0131 da tam olarak bu g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130srail'in varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 soyut olarak de\u011fil, ger\u00e7ekte tehdit alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. Son birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn ve haftad\u0131r ya\u015fanan roket at\u0131\u015flar\u0131, bir rakip kas\u0131tl\u0131 olarak bir sistemi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckledi\u011finde durumun ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Demir Kubbe etkileyici bir teknolojidir, ancak sonsuz derecede dayan\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011fildir. Ve gelen her darbe sadece askeri bir olay de\u011fil, onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne g\u00fcvenen bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in psikolojik bir \u015foktur. Bu da \u00e7ifte ikilem yarat\u0131yor:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130srail \u00e7ok zay\u0131f tepki verirse hem i\u00e7eride hem de d\u0131\u015far\u0131da cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaybedecektir.<\/li>\n<li>\u00c7ok sert tepki verirse, b\u00f6lgesel t\u0131rmanma ve hatta k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemeyecek senaryolarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Klasik g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131nda bu \u201ekaybet-kaybet mimarisi\u201c olarak bilinir: her yol dezavantaja yol a\u00e7ar, her ad\u0131m d\u00fc\u015fman taraf\u0131ndan beklenir ve her vazge\u00e7i\u015f zay\u0131fl\u0131k gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr. Bu tam da stratejistlerin korktu\u011fu t\u00fcrden bir durumdur \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc net bir eylem yoluna izin vermez.<\/p>\n<h3>ABD'nin ikilemi<\/h3>\n<p>Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadaki ikinci merkezi oyuncu ise Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri'dir. Burada da kayda de\u011fer derinlikte stratejik bir i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7mi\u015flik g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpmaktad\u0131r. ABD onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r \u0130srail'in g\u00fcvenlik garant\u00f6r\u00fc rol\u00fcne soyunmu\u015ftur. Siyasi, askeri ve retorik olarak. Orta Do\u011fu'daki t\u00fcm g\u00fcvenlik dengesini tehlikeye atmadan ve ayn\u0131 zamanda d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131ndaki g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fine zarar vermeden geri d\u00f6nmek pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ancak bug\u00fcn ABD ayn\u0131 zamanda<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Siyasi olarak b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f,<\/li>\n<li>uluslararas\u0131 olarak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gerildi,<\/li>\n<li>ekonomik olarak hasta,<\/li>\n<li>ve g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 anda birka\u00e7 b\u00f6lgede (Avrupa, Hint-Pasifik, Orta Do\u011fu) y\u00fcr\u00fctmek.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcklenme, Washington'un \u0130srail'in yan\u0131nda oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor - ama ayn\u0131 zamanda umutsuzca bir sava\u015fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak ne tutarl\u0131 ne de net g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir politika ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Jeopolitik t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flarda son derece tehlikeli olan da tam olarak bu netlik eksikli\u011fidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck bir oyuncu teredd\u00fct ederse, daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir oyuncu kendi k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgisini inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lmak i\u00e7in daha sert tepki vermek zorunda kal\u0131r. Bu, \u0130srail'in \u015fu anda hissetti\u011fi ve manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 daha da k\u0131s\u0131tlayan bir dinamiktir.<\/p>\n<p>Stratejistler i\u00e7in bu, hi\u00e7bir merkezi oyuncunun ger\u00e7ekten \u00f6zg\u00fcrce hareket edemeyece\u011fi bir senaryo yarat\u0131yor. Kontrol edilemeyen geli\u015fmeler riskini artt\u0131ran da tam olarak budur.<\/p>\n<h3>En tehlikeli nokta: bir taraf art\u0131k \u201eba\u015fka se\u00e7ene\u011fi\u201c olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda<\/h3>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar tarihinde, \u00f6zellikle tehlikeli olan bir a\u015fama vard\u0131r: akt\u00f6rlerin se\u00e7eneklerinin t\u00fckendi\u011fine ikna olduklar\u0131 a\u015fama. \u0130srail kendi varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tehdit alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funa ve diplomatik kanallar\u0131n art\u0131k hi\u00e7bir g\u00fcvenlik sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131rsa, daha \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemeyen \u00f6nlemler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir hale gelir.<\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 \u015fey \u0130ran i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. Ve durumu bu kadar patlamaya haz\u0131r hale getiren de tam olarak budur.<\/p>\n<p>T\u0131rmanman\u0131n sonraki a\u015famalar\u0131 akt\u00f6rler irrasyonel olduklar\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011fil, rasyonel olarak k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hissettikleri i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. F\u00fczeler isabet etti\u011finde, toplumsal ruh hali de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde, zaman\u0131n aleyhinize i\u015fledi\u011fi hissi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, siyaset mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yerini \u00e7\u0131plak g\u00fcvenlik mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 al\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez hale geldi\u011fi and\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte bu noktada oyun teorisinin dinamikleri devreye girer ve her stratejisti tedirgin eder:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Her biri di\u011ferinin pes etmesini bekler.<\/li>\n<li>Kimse itibar\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmeden pes edemez.<\/li>\n<li>Her gecikme i\u00e7 politikada bask\u0131 yaratmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Her tepki rakip taraf\u0131ndan bir sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n habercisi olarak yorumlan\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu da kimsenin durduramayaca\u011f\u0131 t\u0131rmanma sarmallar\u0131 yarat\u0131r \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc rakibin att\u0131\u011f\u0131 her ad\u0131m kendi korkular\u0131n\u0131n teyidi olarak okunur.<\/p>\n<h3>Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde - ve bu neden bu kadar tehlikeli<\/h3>\n<p>Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k ancak her iki taraf da di\u011fer taraf\u0131n rasyonel tepki verdi\u011fine ve gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak istedi\u011fine inan\u0131rsa i\u015fe yarar. Ancak bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada tehdit alt\u0131nda olan tam da bu \u00f6nko\u015fuldur.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130srail kendi halk\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in harekete ge\u00e7me kabiliyetini g\u00f6stermelidir. \u0130ran da b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterisinde bulunmal\u0131d\u0131r. Her iki akt\u00f6r de zay\u0131f olmay\u0131 g\u00f6ze alamaz. \u0130\u015fte tam da bu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 uyumsuzluk, her ad\u0131m\u0131n -hatta savunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n bile- sald\u0131rgan bir eylem gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sekteye u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yanl\u0131\u015f yorumlama i\u00e7in alan yarat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olur:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Yanl\u0131\u015f yorumlanm\u0131\u015f bir radar g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc.<\/li>\n<li>Abart\u0131l\u0131 bir siyasi konu\u015fma.<\/li>\n<li>Her iki tarafa da pek uymayan, milislerin y\u00f6netti\u011fi bir operasyon.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130leti\u015fimde teknik bir ar\u0131za.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Tarihsel olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fck sava\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyen tam da bu gibi anlard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Mevcut senaryo klasik bir kabus<\/h3>\n<p>Stratejistlerin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc geli\u015fmeleri bir kabus olarak g\u00f6rmelerinin nedeni \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede basit: son 40 y\u0131ld\u0131r g\u00fcvenilen t\u00fcm istikrar mekanizmalar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ABD yeterince a\u00e7\u0131k de\u011fil.<\/li>\n<li>Avrupa g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fczd\u00fcr.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130srail'in hem i\u00e7eride hem de d\u0131\u015far\u0131da a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fck\u00fc var.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130ran her zamankinden daha \u00f6zg\u00fcvenli.<\/li>\n<li>Rusya ve \u00c7in kenarda duruyor - etkili ama kontrol etmiyorlar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu da klasik frenlerin art\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. B\u00f6yle bir durumda, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir eylem bile b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketi tetikleyebilir: bir sald\u0131r\u0131, diplomatik bir gaf, abart\u0131l\u0131 bir tepki ya da sadece bir yanl\u0131\u015f anlama.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla b\u00f6lge, gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik herhangi bir ad\u0131m\u0131n, yumu\u015famaya y\u00f6nelik herhangi bir ad\u0131mdan daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir noktada. Uzmanlar\u0131n aylard\u0131r uyar\u0131da bulundu\u011fu yap\u0131sal kabus da tam olarak bu.<\/p>\n<h3>Umut ve tehlike aras\u0131nda: \u0130\u00e7 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc hal durumunda bir \u00fclke<\/h3>\n<p>Bu videodan edinilen izlenimler, i\u00e7ten i\u00e7e par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f bir \u0130ran'\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor: Sokaklarda, olas\u0131 siyasi de\u011fi\u015fimle ilgili temkinli sevin\u00e7, her yerde bulunan g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerine kar\u015f\u0131 duyulan derin korkuyla kar\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Pek \u00e7ok insan onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcren bask\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesini umuyor, ancak rejim \u00fclkeyi demirden bir kontrolle bir arada tutuyor - \u015fimdi bombalamalar da buna ekleniyor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_9B7ONOR_jSM\"><div id=\"lyte_9B7ONOR_jSM\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F9B7ONOR_jSM%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/9B7ONOR_jSM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F9B7ONOR_jSM%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\n\u0130ran: Bu sava\u015f\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnleri <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@ARTEde\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ARTE R\u00f6portaj<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 zamanda, Irak K\u00fcrdistan\u0131'ndaki on binlerce \u0130ranl\u0131 s\u00fcrg\u00fcn geri d\u00f6nmek i\u00e7in sab\u0131rs\u0131zlan\u0131rken, rejim kendi anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 besliyor. Umut ve bask\u0131 hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar birbirine yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n<h2>Daha \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemeyen n\u00fckleer senaryolar<\/h2>\n<p>Sadece birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce, Orta Do\u011fu'da taktik n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse hi\u00e7 kimse ciddi bir \u015fekilde tart\u0131\u015fmazd\u0131. Uzmanlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu bunu korkutma ama\u00e7l\u0131, pratikle ilgisi olmayan teorik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce deneyi olarak de\u011ferlendirirdi. Ancak bug\u00fcn kendimizi bu konunun sadece analitik olarak tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fil, askeri-stratejik bir ger\u00e7eklik haline geldi\u011fi bir durumda buluyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Bunun pek \u00e7ok nedeni var. \u0130lk olarak, \u0130srail'in \u00f6zel durumundan kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r: k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir \u00fclke, yo\u011fun n\u00fcfuslu, her zamankinden daha geli\u015fmi\u015f f\u00fcze ve insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 teknolojisine sahip d\u00fc\u015fmanlarla \u00e7evrili. Bir devlet varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fiziksel olarak tehdit alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu hissetti\u011finde ve konvansiyonel ara\u00e7lar s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, daha \u00f6nce tabu olan \u00f6nlemler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir alana ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ve bir de \u0130ran var. Tamamen farkl\u0131 bir g\u00fcvenlik k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fcne sahip olan ve b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a \u0130srail'i siyasi, psikolojik ve askeri olarak zay\u0131flatmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan bir \u00fclke. Son y\u0131llarda \u0130ran sadece balistik sistemlerini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geni\u015fletmekle kalmad\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda vekil gruplar a\u011f\u0131n\u0131 o kadar g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi ki konvansiyonel cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k giderek etkisiz hale geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu kombinasyon, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemez olan\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir jeopolitik iklime yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r. Bu, n\u00fckleer silah kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmiyor - ancak art\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemez de\u011fil. Ve bu ger\u00e7ek tek ba\u015f\u0131na t\u00fcm dinami\u011fi de\u011fi\u015ftirmektedir.<\/p>\n<h3>Domino etkisi: Bir bomba d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde<\/h3>\n<p>N\u00fckleer senaryolardan bahsederken saf olmamal\u0131y\u0131z. Taktik bir n\u00fckleer silah\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 - hangi taraf olursa olsun - uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fcvenli\u011fin t\u00fcm mimarisini sarsacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu sadece \u0130srail ve \u0130ran'\u0131 ilgilendirmiyor. T\u00fcm b\u00f6lgeyi ve bunun da \u00f6tesinde, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla herhangi bir \u015fekilde ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olan her devleti etkiliyor.<\/p>\n<h3>\u0130ran'\u0131n ani tepkisi<\/h3>\n<p>\u0130ran topraklar\u0131na yap\u0131lacak bir n\u00fckleer sald\u0131r\u0131 Tahran'daki rejimi zay\u0131flatmak yerine i\u00e7eride istikrara kavu\u015fturacak bir olay olacakt\u0131r. Her t\u00fcrl\u00fc muhalefet aniden sessizli\u011fe g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fcr. Y\u00f6netim ne kadar geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 olursa olsun t\u00fcm askeri \u00f6nlemleri \u201evatan savunmas\u0131\u201c olarak me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Ve muhtemelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u00e7 siyasi deste\u011fe sahip olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran derhal ve kitlesel olarak kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Bu f\u00fczeler, insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131 veya milisler kullan\u0131larak yap\u0131labilir - b\u00f6yle bir sald\u0131r\u0131dan sonra hangi ara\u00e7lar\u0131n hala i\u015flevsel olaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak. \u0130kinci, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131lar g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Tahran yenilmi\u015f ya da korkmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyi g\u00f6ze alamaz.<\/p>\n<h3>Pakistan'\u0131n rol\u00fc<\/h3>\n<p>Senaryonun k\u00fcreselle\u015fti\u011fi yer buras\u0131d\u0131r. Pakistan, \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131yla yak\u0131n dini ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel ba\u011flar\u0131 olan n\u00fckleer bir g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr. M\u00fcsl\u00fcman bir \u00fclkeye n\u00fckleer silahla yap\u0131lacak bir sald\u0131r\u0131 - askeri a\u00e7\u0131dan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olsa bile - Pakistan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00fczerinde muazzam bir bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Pakistan ger\u00e7ekten n\u00fckleer silahlarla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verir mi? Pek olas\u0131 de\u011fil - \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu \u00fclke i\u00e7in bir intihar eylemi olur. Ancak: retorik t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f devasa olur. Ordu harekete ge\u00e7irilebilir. Ve sadece bu tehdit bile durumu dramatik bir \u015fekilde k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirecektir.<\/p>\n<h3>Arap devletleri<\/h3>\n<p>Suudi Arabistan, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri, Katar - hepsi zor durumda kalacakt\u0131r. Bir\u00e7o\u011fu \u0130srail ile gizli ya da a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015fbirli\u011fi yap\u0131yor ancak M\u00fcsl\u00fcman bir \u00fclkeye y\u00f6nelik n\u00fckleer bir sald\u0131r\u0131, h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerini muazzam bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131na sokacak bir duygu dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyecektir. Stratejik olarak bundan ka\u00e7\u0131nmay\u0131 tercih etseler bile, kendilerini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a konumland\u0131rmak zorunda kalacaklard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Bat\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>\u0130srail'in n\u00fckleer silah kullanmas\u0131 ABD ve Avrupa'y\u0131 derin bir ikileme s\u00fcr\u00fckleyecektir. T\u00fcm ahlaki temellerini kaybetmeden bu eylemi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a destekleyemezlerdi - ancak g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 \u00e7izgilerini yok etmeden de a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a k\u0131nayamazlard\u0131. Bat\u0131 fel\u00e7 olur.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00fckleer bir krizde en tehlikeli pozisyon da tam olarak budur.<\/p>\n<h3>B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler bug\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekten neyi kontrol edebiliyor - ve neyi edemiyor<\/h3>\n<p>Uzun bir s\u00fcre boyunca b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin - ABD, Rusya ve \u00c7in - b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 istikrara kavu\u015fturacak ya da en az\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131racak bir konumda oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi hakim oldu. Ancak mevcut durum bu etkinin art\u0131k eskisi gibi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>ABD<\/strong>Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri jeopolitik bir a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcklenme durumunda. Ayn\u0131 anda Avrupa'y\u0131 istikrara kavu\u015fturmak, \u00c7in'i kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak ve Orta Do\u011fu'ya g\u00f6z kulak olmak zorunda. \u0130srail'i durdurma ya da \u0130ran'\u0131 frenleme kabiliyetleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Tavsiye verebilir, uyarabilir ve tehdit edebilir ama b\u00f6lgesel oyunculara kararlar\u0131n\u0131 dikte edemez.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rusya<\/strong>Moskova'n\u0131n tarihsel olarak \u0130ran \u00fczerinde etkisi olmu\u015ftur, ancak bug\u00fcn ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar her iki y\u00f6nde de devam etmektedir. Rusya'n\u0131n \u0130ran'\u0131n insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 teknolojisine ve siyasi deste\u011fine ihtiyac\u0131 var. \u0130ran'a tavsiyelerde bulunabilir ama emir veremez. N\u00fckleer bir sald\u0131r\u0131 Moskova'y\u0131 alarma ge\u00e7irir ama Rusya ne bunu \u00f6nleyebilir ne de etkili bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verebilir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u00c7in<\/strong>\u00c7in'in ba\u015fka \u00f6ncelikleri de var: ekonomik istikrar, \u0130pek Yolu koridorlar\u0131, enerji tedariki. Pekin gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 istemiyor - ancak \u0130ran'a a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kma riskini de g\u00f6ze almayacakt\u0131r. \u00c7in'in etkisi \u00f6ncelikle diplomatik k\u0131s\u0131tlamadan olu\u015fuyor, stratejik kontrolden de\u011fil.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7: on y\u0131llard\u0131r ilk kez, kendimizi hi\u00e7bir b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcc\u00fcn n\u00fckleer bir t\u0131rmanmay\u0131 g\u00fcvenli bir \u015fekilde \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in yeterli g\u00fcce sahip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00fcnyada buluyoruz. Bu, t\u0131rmanman\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmiyor - ama m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu da t\u00fcm jeopolitik yap\u0131y\u0131 istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rmaya yetiyor.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-5221 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Medien.jpg\" alt=\"Medyan\u0131n rol\u00fc\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Medien.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Medien-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Medien-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Medien-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Medyan\u0131n rol\u00fc: bir g\u00fcvenlik riski olarak bilgi eksikli\u011fi<\/h2>\n<p>Avrupa'da ve \u00f6zellikle Almanya'da neden bu kadar \u00e7ok insan\u0131n mevcut durumun ciddiyetini kavrayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak istiyorsan\u0131z, Bat\u0131 medyas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u015fekline bakman\u0131z gerekir. Komplocu bir ele\u015ftiri anlam\u0131nda de\u011fil, ay\u0131k bir \u015fekilde: medyam\u0131z geleneksel olarak halk\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fin t\u00fcm g\u00fcc\u00fcyle y\u00fczle\u015ftirmek yerine onlara g\u00fcven vermeyi ama\u00e7layan bir filtreyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ilkenin tarihsel k\u00f6kleri vard\u0131r. Devlet ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6zel medya \u015firketleri on y\u0131llar boyunca \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, d\u00fczenli ve m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca az t\u0131rmanma korkusu yaratacak \u015fekilde sunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Haberler bilgilendirmeli ama bunaltmamal\u0131d\u0131r. A\u00e7\u0131klamal\u0131 ama travmatize etmemelidir. Ve her zaman siyasi kurumlar\u0131n \u201eher \u015feyi kontrol alt\u0131nda tuttu\u011fu\u201c izlenimini vermelidir.<\/p>\n<p>Sorun \u015fu ki: Mevcut durum gibi bir durumda, insanlara ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin yanl\u0131\u015f bir resmini veren tam da bu tutumdur. Gece yap\u0131lan f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, yo\u011fun sald\u0131r\u0131lar, savunma sistemlerinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcklenmesi ve jeopolitik t\u0131rmanma sinyalleri \u00fc\u00e7 dakikal\u0131k bir raporda \u00f6zetlendi\u011finde, ger\u00e7ek durum ile kamuoyu bilinci aras\u0131nda tehlikeli bir bo\u015fluk yarat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olur.<\/p>\n<p>Ve bu bo\u015fluk zarars\u0131z de\u011fildir. Siyasi kararlar\u0131, demokratik tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, toplumsal \u00f6ncelikleri ve nihayetinde bir \u00fclkenin krizleri kendisine ula\u015fmadan \u00f6nce ciddiye alma becerisini etkiler.<\/p>\n<h3>G\u00f6sterilmeyen ger\u00e7ek resimler<\/h3>\n<p>\u0130nsanlar\u0131n sosyal a\u011flarda g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri ile geleneksel medyan\u0131n g\u00f6sterdikleri aras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k bir tutars\u0131zl\u0131k var. Sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n, roket ate\u015finin ve y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131n filtrelenmemi\u015f videolar\u0131 internette dola\u015f\u0131rken, geleneksel haber programlar\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler genellikle s\u00f6zde kontroll\u00fc bir durumun soyutlanm\u0131\u015f ill\u00fcstrasyonlar\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bunun pek \u00e7ok nedeni var:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Editoryal uyar\u0131<\/strong>G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duygusal etkiye sahip g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler, halk\u0131 \u015fok etmemek veya radikalle\u015ftirmemek i\u00e7in kontrols\u00fcz bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6sterilmemelidir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Siyasi sorumluluk<\/strong>Bir\u00e7ok yaz\u0131 i\u015fleri m\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, \u00f6zellikle uluslararas\u0131 krizlerde devlet istikrar\u0131n\u0131 gereksiz yere tehlikeye atmamay\u0131 bir g\u00f6rev olarak g\u00f6rmektedir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kamu hizmeti medyas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6z-imaj\u0131<\/strong>Y\u00f6nlendirici olmal\u0131d\u0131rlar, bunalt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Bu durum \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ger\u00e7ekte olup bitenlerin gazetecilikten ziyade e\u011fitici bir kal\u0131ba s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ancak bu filtrelemenin etkisi \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcld\u00fcr: insanlar bir \u015feylerin yanl\u0131\u015f gitti\u011fini hisseder, ancak bu hissi kategorize etmek i\u00e7in yeterli bilgi alamazlar. Sonu\u00e7 olarak g\u00fcvensizlik artar - ve ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00e7o\u011funluk pasif kal\u0131r \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc resmi anlat\u0131 durumun ciddiyetini aktarmaz.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130nsanlar\u0131n d\u00fcnyay\u0131 buzlu bir cam\u0131n arkas\u0131ndan g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yleyebilirsiniz. Tehlikenin d\u0131\u015f hatlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebilirler ama \u015feklini g\u00f6remezler.<\/p>\n<h3>Bilgi \u00e7arp\u0131tmas\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131: durumsal fark\u0131ndal\u0131ktan yoksun ya\u015fayan bir n\u00fcfus<\/h3>\n<p>Toplumlar ancak ger\u00e7e\u011fi bilirlerse krizlerin \u00fcstesinden gelebilirler. Bilgi sahibi olmak bir l\u00fcks de\u011fil, bir g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 fakt\u00f6r\u00fcd\u00fcr. Ancak mevcut durumda yap\u0131sal bir sorun tam da bu noktada ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Demokratik karar alma s\u00fcreci daha da zorla\u015f\u0131yor<\/strong><br \/>\nE\u011fer halk jeopolitik durumun ger\u00e7ekte ne kadar tehlikeli oldu\u011funu anlamazsa, kararlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7arp\u0131t\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir d\u00fcnya g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayanarak verir. Devlet kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n her \u015feyi kontrol alt\u0131nda tuttu\u011funa inan\u0131rlar, oysa bu kurumlar\u0131n kendilerinin bile \u00e7o\u011fu zaman net bir stratejileri yoktur.<br \/>\nBir demokrasinin sorumlu vatanda\u015flara ihtiyac\u0131 vard\u0131r - ancak sorumluluk bilgi gerektirir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Siyasi bask\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu<\/strong><br \/>\nH\u00fck\u00fcmetler genellikle uluslararas\u0131 krizlere ancak halk\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tepki verirler. Ancak insanlar ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin sadece suland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f versiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcrlerse, siyasi bask\u0131 da zay\u0131flar. Sonu\u00e7 atalettir ve bu da t\u0131rmanan durumlarda tehlikeli olabilir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Toplumda diren\u00e7 eksikli\u011fi<\/strong><br \/>\nDayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k - krizlerle ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma becerisi - g\u00fcvence vermekten de\u011fil, ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir de\u011ferlendirmeden kaynaklan\u0131r. Krizleri sadece soyut bir bi\u00e7imde alg\u0131layan bir toplum, acil bir durumda \u015fa\u015f\u0131racak ve bunalacakt\u0131r.<br \/>\n\u201eBu \u00e7ok uzakta\u201c ile \u201eBu bizi do\u011frudan etkiliyor\u201c aras\u0131ndaki psikolojik ge\u00e7i\u015f saatler i\u00e7inde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir - ve bu tam da bir \u00fclkenin panik i\u00e7inde tepki vermeyen ancak neler oldu\u011funu anlayan bilin\u00e7li bir n\u00fcfusa ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu zamand\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Propaganda, spek\u00fclasyon ve korku i\u00e7in alan<\/strong><br \/>\nE\u011fer resmi bilgiler yeterli de\u011filse, insanlar ba\u015fka kaynaklar ararlar. Bu insani bir davran\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak dezenformasyona, dramatizasyona, komplo anlat\u0131lar\u0131na ya da m\u00fcnferit olaylar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yorumlanmas\u0131na kap\u0131 a\u00e7ar.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Ve \u015fu anda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fey tam olarak budur. Bilgi bo\u015fluklar\u0131 iyi alternatiflerle de\u011fil, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yorumlarla dolduruluyor - resmi medya ise yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu en tehlikeli kombinasyondur: i\u00e7g\u00fcd\u00fcsel olarak durumun ciddi oldu\u011funu hisseden ancak kendi medyas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan bu hissi kategorize etmek i\u00e7in hi\u00e7bir ara\u00e7 verilmeyen bir n\u00fcfus.<\/p>\n<h3>Medyan\u0131n bu ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 neden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftiriyor?<\/h3>\n<p>Medyan\u0131n bu krizde sadece pasif bir rol\u00fc oldu\u011funa inanmak \u00e7ok dar g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fl\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olacakt\u0131r. Ger\u00e7ekte, dinamikleri etkilemektedirler:<br \/>\nH\u00fck\u00fcmetler genellikle kendi halklar\u0131n\u0131n durumu nas\u0131l alg\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re hareket eder.<\/p>\n<p>M\u00fcttefik devletler de stratejik kararlar\u0131n\u0131 buna g\u00f6re ayarlamak i\u00e7in kamuoyunun ruh halini izler.<br \/>\nMuhalifler, kendi konumlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in Bat\u0131'n\u0131n enformasyonundaki her g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Halk\u0131 ger\u00e7ekleri g\u00f6remeyen bir devlet manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 kaybeder. \u00c7ok ge\u00e7, \u00e7ok teredd\u00fctl\u00fc ya da \u00e7ok fevri tepki verir. Ve b\u00f6yle bir t\u0131rmanma evresinde tehlikeli olan da tam olarak budur.<\/p>\n<p>Medyan\u0131n \u00e7arp\u0131tmas\u0131 sadece bilgi eksikli\u011fi de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda stratejik k\u00f6rl\u00fck de yarat\u0131yor. Ve stratejik k\u00f6rl\u00fck, Bat\u0131'n\u0131n bu durumda g\u00f6ze alabilece\u011fi son \u015feydir.<\/p>\n<h3>Medya imgeleri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma alg\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 nas\u0131l \u015fekillendiriyor?<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/propaganda-tari%cc%87hi%cc%87-yoentemleri%cc%87-modern-formlar-ve-bunlarin-nasil-taninacagi\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-4233\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Propaganda nedir?\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Propaganda-titel.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>\u0130ran ve \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki mevcut gerilimi anlamak istiyorsan\u0131z, modern bilgi sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l i\u015fledi\u011fini de anlaman\u0131z gerekir. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde sava\u015flar sadece f\u00fczelerle de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler, anlat\u0131lar ve duygu y\u00fckl\u00fc man\u015fetlerle de yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Propaganda ille de d\u00fcped\u00fcz yalan anlam\u0131na gelmez, ancak genellikle belirli bir alg\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan hedeflenmi\u015f bir bilgi se\u00e7imi anlam\u0131na gelir. Ger\u00e7ekler, yar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekler ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc imajlar genellikle duygular\u0131 tetikleyecek ve siyasi yorumlar\u0131 etkileyecek \u015fekilde bir araya getirilir. Duygusal sembolik imajlardan se\u00e7ici habercili\u011fe kadar bu mekanizmalar\u0131 arka plan makalesinde ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak analiz ediyorum <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/propaganda-tari%cc%87hi%cc%87-yoentemleri%cc%87-modern-formlar-ve-bunlarin-nasil-taninacagi\/\"><em><strong>\u201ePropaganda: tarihi, y\u00f6ntemleri, modern bi\u00e7imleri ve bunlar\u0131n nas\u0131l tan\u0131naca\u011f\u0131\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/a>, Medya anlat\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olu\u015fturuldu\u011funu ve kriz zamanlar\u0131nda neden \u00f6zellikle etkili olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>Siyaset ve medyaya g\u00fcven \u00fczerine g\u00fcncel ara\u015ft\u0131rma<\/h3>\n<div class='bootstrap-yop yop-poll-mc'>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"basic-yop-poll-container\" style=\"background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; border-style:solid; border-color:#000000; border-radius:5px; padding:0px 5px;\" data-id=\"1\" data-temp=\"basic-pretty\" data-skin=\"square\" data-cscheme=\"blue\" data-cap=\"0\" data-access=\"guest\" data-tid=\"\" data-uid=\"12fc9c1c455f1a3214681f587e23f7b9\" data-pid=\"5480\" data-resdet=\"votes-number,percentages\" data-show-results-to=\"guest\" data-show-results-moment=\"after-vote\" data-show-results-only=\"false\" data-show-message=\"true\" data-show-results-as=\"bar\" data-sort-results-by=\"as-defined\" data-sort-results-rule=\"asc\"data-is-ended=\"0\" data-percentages-decimals=\"2\" data-gdpr=\"no\" data-gdpr-sol=\"consent\" data-css=\"\" data-counter=\"0\" data-load-with=\"1\" data-notification-section=\"top\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"basic-inner\"><div class=\"basic-message hide\" style=\"border-left: 10px solid #008000; padding: 0px 10px;\" data-error=\"#ff0000\" data-success=\"#008000\"><p class=\"basic-message-text\" style=\"color:#000000; font-size:14px; font-weight:normal;\"><\/p><\/div><div class=\"basic-overlay hide\"><div class=\"basic-vote-options\"><\/div><div class=\"basic-preloader\"><div class=\"basic-windows8\"><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_1\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_2\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_3\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_4\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_5\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><form class=\"basic-form\" action=\"\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"_token\" value=\"32e65ab284\" autocomplete=\"off\"><div class=\"basic-elements\"><div class=\"basic-element basic-question basic-question-text-vertical\" data-id=\"1\" data-uid=\"99097d5732b8c846ef38c3c2081f1ec1\" data-type=\"question\" data-question-type=\"text\" data-required=\"yes\" data-allow-multiple=\"no\" data-min=\"1\" data-max=\"1\" data-display=\"vertical\" data-colnum=\"\" data-display-others=\"no\" data-others-color=\"\" data-others=\"\" data-others-max-chars=\"0\"><div class=\"basic-question-title\"><h5 style=\"color:#000000; font-size:16px; font-weight:normal; text-align:left;\">Almanya'da siyasete ve medyaya ne kadar g\u00fcveniyorsunuz?<\/h5><\/div><ul class=\"basic-answers\"><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"1\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"10\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[1]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[1]\" name=\"answer[1]\" value=\"1\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">\u00c7ok y\u00fcksek - Resmi kurumlara tamamen g\u00fcveniyorum<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"2\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"26\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[2]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[2]\" name=\"answer[1]\" value=\"2\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">Orta - Temkinliyim, ancak temelde \u015f\u00fcpheci de\u011filim<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"3\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"55\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[3]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[3]\" name=\"answer[1]\" value=\"3\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck - Bir\u00e7ok \u015feyi kendim kontrol ederim<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"4\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"253\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[4]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[4]\" name=\"answer[1]\" value=\"4\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">Neredeyse hi\u00e7 yok - pek \u00e7ok \u015feyin \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc veya sahnelenmi\u015f oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yorum<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-vote\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"button basic-vote-button\" role=\"button\" style=\"background:#027bb8; border:0px; border-style: solid; border-color:#1636f0; border-radius:5px; padding:10px 10px; color:#ffffff; font-size:14px; font-weight:normal;\">Oylama<\/a><\/div><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"trp-form-language\" value=\"tr\"\/><\/form><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Ekonomik sars\u0131nt\u0131: \u015eirketler neden sessizle\u015fiyor?<\/h2>\n<p>\u0130srail ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gibi bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu sadece siyasi tepkilerde, diplomatik a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda veya askeri hareketlerde fark edilmez. Her \u015feyden \u00f6nce sessizce ba\u015flayan ama a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hissettiren bir olguda hissedilir: Ekonomi gerginle\u015fiyor. Ve ekonomik ba\u011flamlarda, gerginlik muazzam etkisi olan bir sinyaldir.<\/p>\n<p>Pek \u00e7ok \u015firkette telefonlar\u0131n susmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ertelenmesi ve karar alma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin durmas\u0131 tesad\u00fcf de\u011fil. \u0130nsanlar belirsizli\u011fe i\u00e7g\u00fcd\u00fcsel olarak tepki verirler. Ve \u015firketler nihayetinde riskleri en aza indirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan organize insan gruplar\u0131ndan ba\u015fka bir \u015fey de\u011fildir. B\u00f6yle zamanlarda bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130nsanlar art\u0131k geni\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyor, savunmac\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/li>\n<li>Odak noktas\u0131 art\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme de\u011fil, istikrard\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Uzun vadeli taahh\u00fctlerden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131l\u0131r ve likidite korunur.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar bir t\u00fcr ekonomik felce yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. \u0130\u015fte bu \u015fok hali aylard\u0131r t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada hissediliyor - \u00f6zellikle de Avrupa'da ve temel ekonomik yap\u0131n\u0131n zaten y\u0131llard\u0131r bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu Almanya'da olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde.<\/p>\n<p>Bunun nedeni basittir: ekonominin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fe ihtiyac\u0131 vard\u0131r. Ancak bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirlik \u015fu anda d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda ve enerji krizini, finansal krizi ve hatta tarihsel k\u0131r\u0131lma noktalar\u0131n\u0131 an\u0131msatacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<h3>Enerji fiyatlar\u0131, ula\u015f\u0131m rotalar\u0131, risk primleri<\/h3>\n<p>Orta Do\u011fu herhangi bir b\u00f6lge de\u011fildir; k\u00fcresel enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n, ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131n ve jeopolitik istikrar\u0131n merkezidir. Bu b\u00f6lge sars\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda, \u00e7ok uzaktaym\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen ekonomik sistemler de otomatik olarak sars\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Enerji sorunu<\/strong><br \/>\nBasra K\u00f6rfezi'ndeki tek bir k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeterli. Hem de yava\u015f yava\u015f de\u011fil, saatler i\u00e7inde. \u015eirketler buna tepki vermelidir. Enerji yo\u011fun end\u00fcstriler gelecek y\u0131l de\u011fil, hemen zarar g\u00f6recek. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131'ndaki her kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k, tankerlere y\u00f6nelik her tehdit, deniz ablukas\u0131na dair her ipucu ger\u00e7ek zamanl\u0131 bir fiyat sinyali olarak hareket eder. Halihaz\u0131rda d\u0131\u015f enerji kaynaklar\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan Avrupa i\u00e7in bu, riskin t\u00fcm tedarik zincirlerini kemiren bir maliyet fakt\u00f6r\u00fc haline gelmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>A\u015fil topu\u011fu olarak ula\u015f\u0131m rotalar\u0131<\/strong><br \/>\nModern ekonomiler k\u00fcresel olarak birbirine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r ve ticaret yollar\u0131 her zamankinden daha yak\u0131ndan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz, Umman K\u00f6rfezi veya Do\u011fu Akdeniz'de belirsizlikler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda navlun maliyetleri, sigorta primleri ve teslimat s\u00fcreleri art\u0131yor.<br \/>\nEkonomi soyut g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir - ancak bir sinir sistemi kadar hassast\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir sinir tahri\u015f oldu\u011funda, t\u00fcm sistem titre\u015fir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sigorta ve risk primleri<\/strong><br \/>\nJeopolitik kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde sigorta \u015firketleri gerginle\u015fir ve sigorta \u015firketleri gerginle\u015fti\u011finde ekonomi pahal\u0131la\u015f\u0131r. Risk primleri y\u00fckselir, krediler daha pahal\u0131 hale gelir ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck marjl\u0131 projeler aniden k\u00e2rs\u0131z hale gelir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Siyasi risklerin do\u011frudan ekonomik g\u00f6stergelere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir d\u00fcnyada ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Ve bu, pek \u00e7ok ki\u015fiyi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtan bir h\u0131zda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n<h3>\u015eirketler i\u00e7g\u00fcd\u00fcsel olarak \u201ebekle ve g\u00f6r \u201ce ge\u00e7iyor\u201c<\/h3>\n<p>Ekonomik davran\u0131\u015f sadece rasyonel analizleri takip etmez. Psikolojik kal\u0131plar\u0131 da takip eder. Ve bu kal\u0131plar y\u00fczy\u0131llar \u00f6ncesine dayan\u0131r.<br \/>\nB\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde insanlar sezgisel olarak do\u011fru oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fckleri \u015feyi yaparlar:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Malzeme stoklay\u0131n<\/li>\n<li>Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 erteleyin<\/li>\n<li>Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri en aza indirin<\/li>\n<li>Risklerden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u015eirketler de farkl\u0131 davranm\u0131yor. Jeopolitik durum doru\u011fa ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 tipik tepki ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Kararlar\u0131n ertelenmesi<\/strong>Yeni projeler, sat\u0131n almalar, i\u015fe al\u0131mlar - her \u015fey arka plana at\u0131l\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Temel alanlara odaklan\u0131n<\/strong>\u015eirketler neyin g\u00fcvenli oldu\u011funa odaklan\u0131r ve deneylerden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Maliyet disiplini ve likiditenin g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131<\/strong>: S\u00fcrprizleri g\u00f6ze almak istemezsiniz.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu kal\u0131plar mant\u0131ks\u0131z de\u011fildir. Hayatta kalmak i\u00e7in gereklidirler - ancak ekonomide bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7arlar ve bu da \u00f6zellikle kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde belirginle\u015fir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durum, dolu sipari\u015f defterlerine ra\u011fmen bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn neden daha az dinamik g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Alt yap\u0131 sars\u0131ld\u0131 ve kimse yar\u0131n durum daha da k\u00f6t\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde yanl\u0131\u015f zamanda cesur bir yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan ki\u015fi olmak istemiyor.<\/p>\n<h3>\u0130nsanlar \u201ebir \u015feylerin yanl\u0131\u015f gitti\u011fini\u201c hissediyor\u201c<\/h3>\n<p>Ekonomik belirsizli\u011fin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir hale gelmeden \u00f6nce bile hissedilebildi\u011fini belirtmek ilgin\u00e7tir. \u0130nsanlar ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 analizleri okumasalar bile jeopolitik riskleri sezgisel olarak alg\u0131larlar. G\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar, haberleri duyuyorlar, havay\u0131 hissediyorlar. Ve medya bir\u00e7ok \u015feyi yumu\u015fatsa bile, temel ton genellikle yayg\u0131n bir his yaratmak i\u00e7in yeterlidir. Bu hissin - \u201ehavada bir \u015feyler oldu\u011fu\u201c hissinin - muazzam bir etkisi vard\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>De\u011fi\u015fen t\u00fcketici davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0130nsanlar daha az sat\u0131n al\u0131yor, al\u0131\u015fveri\u015flerini erteliyor ve daha temkinli planlar yap\u0131yor. T\u00fcketim sadece bir para meselesi de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda gelece\u011fe duyulan g\u00fcven meselesidir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u015eirketler temkinli m\u00fc\u015fterileri hissediyor<\/strong><br \/>\nM\u00fc\u015fteriler daha temkinli hale geldi\u011finde, \u015firketler de otomatik olarak daha temkinli hale gelir. K\u0131s\u0131tlamalar birbirini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Toplumsal ruh hali alarmizme do\u011fru s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor<\/strong><br \/>\nKriz atmosferi siyasi kutupla\u015fmaya, g\u00fcvensizli\u011fe ve kolektif bir gerginli\u011fe yol a\u00e7ar. Bu da risk alma iste\u011fini azalt\u0131r - ve ekonomik faaliyetler riske dayan\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Medya alg\u0131y\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi veya gizledi<\/strong><br \/>\nG\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler kelimelerden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funda, ancak yaln\u0131zca filtrelenmi\u015f bir bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6sterildi\u011finde, paradoksal bir durum ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar: insanlar daha az g\u00f6r\u00fcr, ancak daha fazla hisseder.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Bu dengesizlik belirsizli\u011fin kontrols\u00fcz bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini sa\u011flar. Hakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in de\u011fil, \u00fczerinde yorum yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in.<\/p>\n<h3>Ekonomik fel\u00e7 neden bir uyar\u0131 sinyalidir?<\/h3>\n<p>Jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda ekonomik fel\u00e7 bir yan etki de\u011fil, erken bir g\u00f6stergedir. Bir sistemin, risklerin f\u0131rsatlardan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011fu bir a\u015famaya girdi\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. Ve \u015fu anda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz yap\u0131sal tehlike de tam olarak budur: Ekonomi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepki vermiyor - do\u011fru tepki veriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7ta, t\u0131rmanan bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131, g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc, g\u00fcvenli\u011fi, ticareti, finansal piyasalar\u0131, tedarik zincirlerini ve siyasi istikrar\u0131 etkiler. T\u00fcm bu fakt\u00f6rler birbiriyle ili\u015fkilidir. Ve ayn\u0131 anda bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girerlerse, bu, ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131l\u0131nmas\u0131 zor olan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ekonomik durum yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Jeopolitik bir f\u0131rt\u0131na g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelmeden \u00f6nce, ilk duydu\u011funuz \u015feyin ekonominin nefesini tutmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebilirsiniz. Ve \u015fu anda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z da tam olarak bu and\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve yapay zeka kararlar\u0131 \u00e7ak\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda<\/h3>\n<p>Bu video, g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131n teknolojik geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle ne kadar i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7ti\u011fini etkileyici bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6steriyor. ABD ve \u0130ran Cenevre'de m\u00fczakerelerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Washington sadece bir g\u00fcn sonra Anthropic ile daha \u00f6nceden haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f olan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 reddetti ve bunun yerine OpenAI ile bir s\u00f6zle\u015fme imzalad\u0131. Modern \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar art\u0131k sadece f\u00fczeler ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarla de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda veri g\u00fcc\u00fc, bilgi hakimiyeti ve yapay zeka altyap\u0131s\u0131yla da y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in zamanlama tesad\u00fcfi g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_LYp3IkUBc20\"><div id=\"lyte_LYp3IkUBc20\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FLYp3IkUBc20%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/LYp3IkUBc20\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FLYp3IkUBc20%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\n\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131: Ya G\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Gibi De\u011filse? |\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@salvatoreprinci\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Salvatore Princi<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Videonun yazar\u0131 bu olaylar\u0131 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir resimde birle\u015ftiriyor: \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011fil, jeopolitik, ekonomik ve teknolojik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7ti\u011fi k\u00fcresel bir de\u011fi\u015fimin par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmelidir. Bu sadece \u0130ran ve ilgili taraflarla ilgili de\u011fil, her \u015feyden \u00f6nce birbirine ba\u011fl\u0131 dinamikler ve yapay zeka altyap\u0131s\u0131yla ilgili, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/di%cc%87ji%cc%87tal-parayi-anlamak-bitcoin-stablecoins-ve-cbdcs-basi%cc%87tce-aciklandi\/\"><strong>Kripto Paralar, Stabil Paralar<\/strong><\/a> ve ABD Deha Yasas\u0131.<\/p>\n<h2>K\u00fcresel yeniden yap\u0131lanma: Bat\u0131 konumunu kaybediyor<\/h2>\n<p>Son y\u0131llarda ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelere so\u011fukkanl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde bakarsan\u0131z, art\u0131k g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyecek bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcn\u00fcn fark\u0131na varabilirsiniz: Bat\u0131'n\u0131n on y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcren hakimiyeti \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcyor. Aniden de\u011fil, dramatik bir olayla de\u011fil, kademeli ama \u00e7ok daha derin bir erozyonla. Bat\u0131 d\u00fcnyas\u0131 on y\u0131llar boyunca kendi siyasi modellerinin, ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ve g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta otoriter kalmas\u0131na bel ba\u011flad\u0131. Ancak Bat\u0131 bu \u00f6zg\u00fcvende \u0131srar ederken, dinamik, kararl\u0131 ve \u00e7ok daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 yeni g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezleri ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu de\u011fi\u015fimin bu kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir etkiye sahip olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni, tek tek devletlerin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan de\u011fil, kolektif bir de\u011fi\u015fimden kaynaklanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Daha \u00f6nce Bat\u0131 d\u00fczeninin al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen toplumlar art\u0131k kendilerini ortaya koyuyor ve kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 tan\u0131ml\u0131yorlar. Ve bu devletler g\u00fc\u00e7lendik\u00e7e, eski hiyerar\u015filerin art\u0131k ge\u00e7erli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha da netle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, Bat\u0131'n\u0131n yok oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Ancak d\u00fczen, yorumlama ve jeopolitik \u00f6rg\u00fctlenme \u00fczerindeki tekeli sona erdi. \u0130\u015fte tam da bu de\u011fi\u015fim, mevcut t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fla ayn\u0131 zamana denk geliyor - ki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n bu kadar tehlikeli ve ayn\u0131 zamanda semptomatik olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni de bu.<\/p>\n<h3>G\u00fcneyin Y\u00fckseli\u015fi: \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye, Hindistan, Arap D\u00fcnyas\u0131 ve BRICS<\/h3>\n<p>Bat\u0131 mevcut d\u00fczenini korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, di\u011fer b\u00f6lgeler kendi rollerini geni\u015fletmek i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu durum \u00f6zellikle T\u00fcrkiye, Hindistan ve Suudi Arabistan gibi bug\u00fcn sadece b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 olmaktan \u00f6teye gidemeyen \u00fclkelerde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong><br \/>\nY\u0131llard\u0131r Do\u011fu ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131nda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir g\u00fc\u00e7 unsuru olarak hareket etmektedir. \u0130\u015fine gelen her yerden silah sat\u0131n al\u0131yor, gerekti\u011finde ittifaklar kuruyor ve a\u00e7\u0131k jeopolitik \u00e7\u0131karlar pe\u015finde ko\u015fuyor. T\u00fcrkiye, modern devletlerin art\u0131k kendilerini eski ittifak yap\u0131lar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 hissetmediklerinde ne kadar esnek hareket edebileceklerini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Hindistan<\/strong><br \/>\nHindistan art\u0131k bir seyirci de\u011fil, k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki merkezi g\u00fc\u00e7lerden biri. Ekonomik olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, demografik olarak gen\u00e7, jeopolitik olarak kendine g\u00fcvenen ve giderek ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zla\u015fan bir \u00fclke. Hindistan bat\u0131 d\u00fcnyas\u0131na istikrar ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ille de bat\u0131l\u0131 modellere ba\u011fl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Hindistan sadakat beklendi\u011fi yerde de\u011fil, fayda oldu\u011fu yerde hareket ediyor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Suudi Arabistan ve Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131<\/strong><br \/>\nArap b\u00f6lgesi kendisini hammadde tedarik\u00e7isi rol\u00fcnden kurtarm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Suudi Arabistan teknolojiye, altyap\u0131ya, uluslararas\u0131 ittifaklara ve enerji ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yor. Devlet art\u0131k bir arabulucu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 fakt\u00f6r\u00fc ve Bat\u0131'dan giderek daha ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z.<\/li>\n<li><strong>BRICS ve yeni \u00e7ok kutupluluk<\/strong><br \/>\nAyn\u0131 zamanda, Bat\u0131'ya a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a meydan okuyan bir a\u011f da b\u00fcy\u00fcmektedir: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/brics-nedi%cc%87r-ve-ne-degi%cc%87ldi%cc%87r-tari%cc%87h-ekonomi%cc%87-ve-jeopoli%cc%87ti%cc%87k-siniflandirma\/\"><strong>BRICS<\/strong><\/a>. Art\u0131k tek tek devletlerden de\u011fil, ekonomik, siyasi ve giderek artan bir \u015fekilde mali a\u00e7\u0131dan da Bat\u0131'n\u0131n egemen oldu\u011fu sisteme bilin\u00e7li bir \u015fekilde alternatifler arayan ve say\u0131lar\u0131 giderek artan \u00fclkelerden olu\u015fan bir birlik.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Bu yap\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 de\u011fil ama Bat\u0131'n\u0131n hakimiyetinden b\u0131km\u0131\u015f olanlar i\u00e7in cazip. Ve giderek daha fazla \u00fclke BRICS ortam\u0131n\u0131 sadece bir alternatif olarak de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda kendi etkilerini g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<h3>Yeni ger\u00e7eklik: Bat\u0131 bir\u00e7ok oyuncu aras\u0131nda sadece bir tanesi<\/h3>\n<p>Belirleyici de\u011fi\u015fiklik \u015fudur: Bat\u0131 art\u0131k d\u00fcnya siyasetine y\u00f6n vermiyor. Bir\u00e7ok oyuncu aras\u0131nda sadece bir oyuncu - g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yanlar\u0131 oldu\u011fu kadar artan zay\u0131fl\u0131klar\u0131 da var. Ve Bat\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f yap\u0131lar\u0131 korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, di\u011ferleri yeni yap\u0131lar in\u015fa ediyor.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Ahlaki otorite kayb\u0131<\/strong><br \/>\nOn y\u0131llar boyunca Bat\u0131, sadece siyasi sistemler konusunda de\u011fil ahlaki konularda da k\u00fcresel kararlar alabilece\u011fine inanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak bug\u00fcn Bat\u0131 standartlar\u0131 giderek daha se\u00e7ici, \u00e7\u0131kar odakl\u0131 ya da modas\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Hindistan ve T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00fclkeler art\u0131k ahlaki retorikten etkilenmiyor, pragmatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler talep ediyorlar.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ekonomik ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar de\u011fi\u015fti<\/strong><br \/>\nK\u00fcresel ekonomi eskiden Bat\u0131'ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131yd\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ise Bat\u0131 art\u0131k kontrol edemedi\u011fi k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. Enerji, hammadde, \u00fcretim - her \u015fey Do\u011fu'ya ya da G\u00fcney'e kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Bat\u0131'n\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ya da bask\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerini daha az etkili k\u0131lan da tam olarak bu.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Askeri hakimiyet art\u0131k hafife al\u0131namaz<\/strong><br \/>\nBat\u0131, g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da liderli\u011fini kaybetmi\u015ftir. ABD g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmaya devam ederken, Avrupa devletleri stratejik \u00f6nemlerini kaybetmektedir. Yeni oyuncular asimetrik ara\u00e7lar kullanmay\u0131 \u00f6\u011frendi: Dronlar, f\u00fczeler, siber operasyonlar, vekil yap\u0131lar. \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fclebilen tam da bu ara\u00e7lard\u0131r ve geleneksel Bat\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 oymaktad\u0131rlar.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Blok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi yerine \u00e7ok kutupluluk<\/strong><br \/>\nArt\u0131k iki kutuplu ya da tek kutuplu bir d\u00fcnyada ya\u015fam\u0131yoruz. Yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni \u00e7ok kutupludur ve \u00e7ok kutuplu sistemler daha istikrars\u0131zd\u0131r \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc krizleri kontrol alt\u0131na alabilecek merkezi bir g\u00fc\u00e7 yoktur. Her oyuncunun kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 var ve ittifaklar eskisinden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Mevcut kriz i\u00e7in bu, art\u0131k t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcvenilir bir \u015fekilde durdurabilecek kimsenin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<h3>Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda Bat\u0131'n\u0131n stratejik yan\u0131lg\u0131lar\u0131<\/h3>\n<div style=\"overflow-x: auto;\">\n<table style=\"width: 100%;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background: #f2f2f2;\">\n<td><strong>Yanl\u0131\u015f Anlama<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Neden art\u0131k ge\u00e7erli de\u011fil<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Mevcut durum i\u00e7in sonu\u00e7lar<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bat\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 her an istikrara kavu\u015fturabilir.<\/td>\n<td>\u00c7ok kutuplu g\u00fc\u00e7 ili\u015fkileri eski hakimiyeti zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/td>\n<td>T\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar i\u00e7in art\u0131k g\u00fcvenilir bir d\u0131\u015f fren yok.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Diplomasi, varolu\u015fsal \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeterlidir.<\/td>\n<td>Her iki oyuncu da g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmazlar\u0131na saplanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/td>\n<td>M\u00fczakerelerin sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir etkisi vard\u0131r ve genellikle tamamen semboliktir.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>B\u00f6lgesel oyuncular kendilerini otomatik olarak Bat\u0131'n\u0131n beklentilerine g\u00f6re hizalamaktad\u0131r.<\/td>\n<td>\u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye, Hindistan ve Suudi Arabistan giderek daha fazla kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015finde ko\u015fuyor.<\/td>\n<td>Bat\u0131 n\u00fcfuzunu ve stratejik kontrol edilebilirli\u011fini kaybediyor.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<h3>Bu k\u00fcresel yeniden yap\u0131lanma mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 neden patlay\u0131c\u0131 hale getiriyor?<\/h3>\n<p>\u0130srail ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerginli\u011fin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 kendi ba\u015f\u0131na tehlikeli olabilir. Ancak yeni k\u00fcresel d\u00fczenin arka plan\u0131nda tam anlam\u0131yla patlay\u0131c\u0131 hale gelir. Bat\u0131'n\u0131n art\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a egemen olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00fcnyada, \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve diplomatik bask\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kaybediyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda yeni oyuncular, eski yap\u0131lardan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak, durumu kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in kullanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran sadece \u0130srail ile de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda art\u0131k \u00f6nceki on y\u0131llardaki iddial\u0131 tavr\u0131na sahip olmayan Bat\u0131 ile de s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 test ediyor. Bunu da T\u00fcrkiye, Hindistan ve Suudi Arabistan gibi devletlerin Bat\u0131'n\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 otomatik olarak desteklemek yerine kendi yollar\u0131na gittiklerini bilerek yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Bat\u0131 \u00e7ifte bir meydan okumayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya: kontrol edemedi\u011fi bir krizin \u00fcstesinden gelmek zorunda. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, art\u0131k bu t\u00fcr \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 tan\u0131mlayabilecek merkezi g\u00fc\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da kabul etmelidir. Durumu bu kadar tehlikeli ve zaman\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n karakteristik \u00f6zelli\u011fi haline getiren de tam olarak bu bile\u015fimdir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-5222 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Domino.jpg\" alt=\"T\u0131rman\u0131\u015f sarmal\u0131n\u0131 durdurmak neden zor?\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Domino.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Domino-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Domino-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Israel-Iran-Strategischer-Albtraum-Domino-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>T\u0131rmanma sarmal\u0131: durdurmak neden bu kadar zor<\/h2>\n<p>\u0130srail ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n neden bu kadar tehlikeli bir hal ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle her iki akt\u00f6r\u00fcn de yap\u0131sal bir ikilem i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu fark etmek gerekir. Mant\u0131ks\u0131z olduklar\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011fil. Ancak siyasi, tarihi ve psikolojik \u00e7izgileri onlar\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmenin pek de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 pozisyonlara getirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130srail muazzam bir i\u00e7 siyasi bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. \u00dclke on y\u0131llard\u0131r varolu\u015fsal bir tehdit ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle ya\u015f\u0131yor. Alg\u0131lanan herhangi bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k derhal siyasi olarak istismar ediliyor. Kendi halk\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 herhangi bir suskunluk, g\u00fcvenli\u011fe ihanet gibi hissediliyor. Ayn\u0131 anda hem f\u00fczeler vurdu\u011funda hem de savunma sistemleri s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcn tek se\u00e7enek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ruh hali yarat\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran ise herhangi bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Rejim me\u015fruiyetini direni\u015f, kararl\u0131l\u0131k ve b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 projeksiyonuna dayand\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130srail ya da ABD'ye teslim olmak i\u00e7eride ayakta kalmay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r. D\u0131\u015far\u0131da ise \u0130ran'\u0131n on y\u0131llar boyunca in\u015fa etti\u011fi cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fini g\u00f6sterecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu da her iki taraf\u0131n da pes etmenin t\u0131rmanmaktan daha tehlikeli g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir durumda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Uluslararas\u0131 politikada klasik bir tuzak ve tam da sarmal\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 nokta.<\/p>\n<h3>Psikolojik d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm<\/h3>\n<p>E\u011fer iki \u00fclke de g\u00fcvenliklerinin sadece sertlikle garanti alt\u0131na al\u0131nabilece\u011fine inan\u0131rlarsa, ger\u00e7ek alternatifleri g\u00f6rme yetilerini kaybederler. Bu, ilgili bireylerin bir hatas\u0131 de\u011fil, yap\u0131sal bir sorundur: on y\u0131llar boyunca kat\u0131la\u015fan g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131, basit bir irade karar\u0131yla de\u011fi\u015ftirilemez.<\/p>\n<p>Mevcut durumu bu kadar de\u011fi\u015fken k\u0131lan da budur.<\/p>\n<h3>Sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde m\u00fcdahale edebilen d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rler<\/h3>\n<p>Daha \u00f6nceki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda, diplomasi, bask\u0131, garantiler yoluyla ya da sadece \u00fcst\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7 konumlar\u0131 sayesinde t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar\u0131 frenleyebilen d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7ler vard\u0131. Ancak bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnya de\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>ABD: a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fck nedeniyle teredd\u00fctl\u00fc<\/strong><br \/>\nAmerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri askeri a\u00e7\u0131dan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olabilir ancak siyasi a\u00e7\u0131dan zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130\u00e7 siyasi b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeler, ekonomik bask\u0131lar ve k\u00fcresel y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler Orta Do\u011fu'da net \u00e7izgiler \u00e7izme kabiliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Konu\u015fabilir, uyarabilir, destekleyebilir ama art\u0131k uzun zamand\u0131r alamet-i farikas\u0131 olan eski egemenlikle hareket edemez. Bu \u0130srail i\u00e7in y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir durum. \u0130ran i\u00e7inse bu bir davettir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Avrupa: G\u00fcc\u00fc olmayan bir g\u00fc\u00e7<\/strong><br \/>\nAvrupa bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada \u00f6nemsiz bir konumda. \u00c7a\u011fr\u0131lar, talepler ve diplomatik \u00f6neriler olsa da bunlar arka plandaki g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Her iki oyuncu da stratejisini Avrupa'ya odaklam\u0131yor. Ve her iki taraf da bunun fark\u0131nda.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rusya ve \u00c7in: Etki var ama kontrol yok<\/strong><br \/>\nRusya ve \u00c7in'in \u0130ran ile ili\u015fkileri var ama kontrol g\u00fc\u00e7leri yok. Her ikisi de zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f bir Bat\u0131'dan jeopolitik olarak faydalan\u0131yor, ancak Orta Do\u011fu'da bir yang\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 yok. Ancak \u0130ran y\u00f6netimini belli bir y\u00f6ne do\u011fru zorlama kabiliyetinden -ve iradesinden- yoksundurlar.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Arap devletleri: Par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131karlar<\/strong><br \/>\nBir\u00e7ok Arap \u00fclkesi iki d\u00fcnya aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda: Bir yandan M\u00fcsl\u00fcman \u00fclkelerle dini ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel dayan\u0131\u015fma. Di\u011fer yandan Bat\u0131 ve hatta baz\u0131 durumlarda \u0130srail ile ekonomik ve g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131 ortakl\u0131klar\u0131. Bu karars\u0131zl\u0131k pasif bir tutuma yol a\u00e7\u0131yor: g\u00f6zlemleniyor ve bekleniyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7: freni olmayan bir sarmal. Can al\u0131c\u0131 nokta \u015fu: art\u0131k t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcvenli bir \u015fekilde durdurabilecek kadar g\u00fcvenilir, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve kararl\u0131 bir d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6r yok. Ve b\u00f6ylece sarmal devam ediyor.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>Almanya'da olas\u0131 bir gerilim vakas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncel ara\u015ft\u0131rma<\/h3>\n<div class='bootstrap-yop yop-poll-mc'>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"basic-yop-poll-container\" style=\"background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; border-style:solid; border-color:#000000; border-radius:5px; padding:0px 5px;\" data-id=\"6\" data-temp=\"basic-pretty\" data-skin=\"square\" data-cscheme=\"blue\" data-cap=\"0\" data-access=\"guest\" data-tid=\"\" data-uid=\"c20d50e8879a0678816129817ed11949\" data-pid=\"5480\" data-resdet=\"votes-number,percentages\" data-show-results-to=\"guest\" data-show-results-moment=\"after-vote\" data-show-results-only=\"false\" data-show-message=\"true\" data-show-results-as=\"bar\" data-sort-results-by=\"as-defined\" data-sort-results-rule=\"asc\"data-is-ended=\"0\" data-percentages-decimals=\"2\" data-gdpr=\"no\" data-gdpr-sol=\"consent\" data-css=\".basic-yop-poll-container[data-uid] .basic-vote {\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\ttext-align: center;\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t}\" data-counter=\"0\" data-load-with=\"1\" data-notification-section=\"top\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"basic-inner\"><div class=\"basic-message hide\" style=\"border-left: 10px solid #008000; padding: 0px 10px;\" data-error=\"#ff0000\" data-success=\"#008000\"><p class=\"basic-message-text\" style=\"color:#000000; font-size:14px; font-weight:normal;\"><\/p><\/div><div class=\"basic-overlay hide\"><div class=\"basic-vote-options\"><\/div><div class=\"basic-preloader\"><div class=\"basic-windows8\"><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_1\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_2\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_3\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_4\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-wBall basic-wBall_5\"><div class=\"basic-wInnerBall\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><form class=\"basic-form\" action=\"\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"_token\" value=\"9c7e3b56ce\" autocomplete=\"off\"><div class=\"basic-elements\"><div class=\"basic-element basic-question basic-question-text-vertical\" data-id=\"6\" data-uid=\"558a4404cf8f8e8f304a64d6079b7614\" data-type=\"question\" data-question-type=\"text\" data-required=\"yes\" data-allow-multiple=\"no\" data-min=\"1\" data-max=\"7\" data-display=\"vertical\" data-colnum=\"\" data-display-others=\"no\" data-others-color=\"\" data-others=\"\" data-others-max-chars=\"0\"><div class=\"basic-question-title\"><h5 style=\"color:#000000; font-size:16px; font-weight:normal; text-align:left;\">Olas\u0131 bir gerilim durumuna (\u00f6rne\u011fin kriz veya sava\u015f) ki\u015fisel olarak ne kadar haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 hissediyorsunuz?<\/h5><\/div><ul class=\"basic-answers\"><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"24\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"19\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[24]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[24]\" name=\"answer[6]\" value=\"24\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">\u00c7ok iyi - Malzemelerim, bilgim ve bir plan\u0131m var<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"25\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"37\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[25]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[25]\" name=\"answer[6]\" value=\"25\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">Olduk\u00e7a iyi - biraz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcm<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"26\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"60\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[26]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[26]\" name=\"answer[6]\" value=\"26\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">Pek say\u0131lmaz - umar\u0131m hi\u00e7bir \u015fey olmaz<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"27\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"13\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[27]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[27]\" name=\"answer[6]\" value=\"27\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">Hi\u00e7 de de\u011fil - konuyu kas\u0131tl\u0131 olarak bast\u0131r\u0131yorum<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><li class=\"basic-answer\" style=\"padding:0px 0px;\" data-id=\"28\" data-type=\"text\" data-vn=\"17\" data-color=\"#000000\" data-make-link=\"no\" data-link=\"\"><div class=\"basic-answer-content basic-text-vertical\"><label for=\"answer[28]\" class=\"basic-answer-label\"><input type=\"radio\" id=\"answer[28]\" name=\"answer[6]\" value=\"28\"><span class=\"basic-text\" style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal;\">\"Voltaj d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\" nedir ki zaten?<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"basic-vote\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"button basic-vote-button\" role=\"button\" style=\"background:#027bb8; border:0px; border-style: solid; border-color:#000000; border-radius:5px; padding:10px 10px; color:#ffffff; font-size:14px; font-weight:normal;\">Oylama<\/a><\/div><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"trp-form-language\" value=\"tr\"\/><\/form><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>En tehlikeli nokta: kontrol\u00fc kaybetmeden k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nceki a\u015fama<\/h3>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar tarihinde, her zaman \u00f6zellikle tehlikeli olan bir an olmu\u015ftur: sava\u015f\u0131n kendisi de\u011fil, sava\u015fa giden a\u015fama. Bu a\u015fama, sava\u015fa dahil olan herkesin - her ne kadar fiilen kaybedilmi\u015f olsa da - hala kontrol\u00fcn kendilerinde oldu\u011funa inand\u0131klar\u0131 a\u015famad\u0131r. Bu a\u015fama d\u00f6rt mekanizma ile karakterize edilir:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Yanl\u0131\u015f Yorumlamalar<\/strong><br \/>\nGergin bir durumda, her sinyal a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yorumlan\u0131r:<br \/>\n- Askeri tatbikat bir sald\u0131r\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131na benziyor.<br \/>\n- Tehdit gibi siyasi bir a\u00e7\u0131klama.<br \/>\n- Yanl\u0131\u015f b\u00f6lgedeki bir u\u00e7ak sald\u0131r\u0131 gibi.<br \/>\nKorku ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fckse, olaylar\u0131 akl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda analiz etme becerisi de o kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olur.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yurti\u00e7i siyasi bask\u0131<\/strong><br \/>\nH\u00fck\u00fcmetler g\u00fcvenilirliklerinden endi\u015fe duyduklar\u0131nda daha h\u0131zl\u0131, daha sert ve daha fevri tepki verirler. Bunu istedikleri i\u00e7in de\u011fil, yapmak zorunda olduklar\u0131na inand\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in yaparlar. \u015eu anda \u0130srail ve \u0130ran'da g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz tam olarak budur.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Otomatik y\u00fckseltme<\/strong><br \/>\nAskeri sistemler otomatikle\u015ftirilmi\u015f s\u00fcre\u00e7leri takip eder:<br \/>\n- F\u00fczeler durduruldu.<br \/>\n- Hedefler i\u015faretlenmi\u015ftir.<br \/>\n- Kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler etkinle\u015ftirildi.<br \/>\nBu t\u00fcr sistemlerde saniyeler yanl\u0131\u015f kararlar\u0131 tetiklemek i\u00e7in yeterlidir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Proxy dinamikleri<\/strong><br \/>\nMilisler, gruplar, otonom akt\u00f6rler - ne \u0130srail'in ne de \u0130ran'\u0131n planlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 eylemleri tetikleyebilirler. Ve bu eylemlerin her biri di\u011fer taraf\u00e7a do\u011frudan bir devlet eylemi olarak okunabilir.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3>Neden tam da bu an en tehlikeli and\u0131r?<\/h3>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kontrol yan\u0131lsamas\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc politikac\u0131lar\u0131 hala zaman\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale edebileceklerine inand\u0131r\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc orduyu planlamalar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flam oldu\u011funa inand\u0131r\u0131r. Ve ayn\u0131 zamanda kas\u0131ts\u0131z bir cehennem i\u00e7in t\u00fcm ko\u015fullar\u0131 yerine getirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131, her eylemin -savunmaya y\u00f6nelik bile olsa- sald\u0131r\u0131 hamlesi olarak alg\u0131lanabilece\u011fi bir a\u015famaday\u0131z.<br \/>\nVe bu, tarih boyunca defalarca felaketlere yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f olan t\u00fcrden bir t\u0131rmanma mant\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>\u0130srail-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131ran etmenler<\/h3>\n<div style=\"overflow-x: auto;\">\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background: #f2f2f2;\">\n<td><strong>Eskalasyon s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcs\u00fc<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>A\u00e7\u0131klama<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Stratejik etki<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Yurti\u00e7i siyasi bask\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>Her iki \u00fclke de zay\u0131f olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmek istemiyorsa sertlik g\u00f6stermelidir.<\/td>\n<td>Uzla\u015fma alan\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Asimetrik sava\u015f teknolojileri<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>\u0130nsans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n, f\u00fczelerin, vekillerin ve siber sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yo\u011fun kullan\u0131m\u0131.<\/td>\n<td>Savunma sistemlerini a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckler, hata riskini art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>D\u0131\u015f arabuluculuk g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn olmamas\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>ABD zay\u0131flad\u0131, Avrupa daha \u00f6nemsiz hale geldi, \u00c7in ve Rusya k\u0131s\u0131tland\u0131.<\/td>\n<td>T\u0131rmanma sarmal\u0131 h\u0131z kesmeden devam ediyor.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"display-post-types\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">\n\t\t\t#dpt-wrapper-708 { --dpt-text-align: left;--dpt-image-crop: center;--dpt-border-radius: 5px;--dpt-h-gutter: 10px;--dpt-v-gutter: 10px; }\t\t\t<\/style>\n\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">#dpt-wrapper-708 { --dpt-title-font-style:normal;--dpt-title-font-weight:600;--dpt-title-line-height:1.5;--dpt-title-text-decoration:none;--dpt-title-text-transform:none;--dpt-excerpt-font-style:normal;--dpt-excerpt-font-weight:400;--dpt-excerpt-line-height:1.5;--dpt-excerpt-text-decoration:none;--dpt-excerpt-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta1-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta1-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta1-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta1-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta1-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta2-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta2-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta2-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta2-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta2-text-transform:none; }<\/style><div class=\"dpt-main-header\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-main-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dpt-main-title-text\">Almanya hakk\u0131nda g\u00fcncel makaleler<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div id=\"dpt-wrapper-708\" class=\"dpt-wrapper dpt-list2 land1 dpt-cropped dpt-flex-wrap\" >\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"fracking, lng und energiepolitik: eine n\u00fcchterne analyse von risiken, chancen und realit\u00e4t\" data-id=\"5579\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft gesundheit\" data-post_tag=\"deutschland energiepolitik europa geopolitik krisen\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/04\/fracking-lng-ve-enerji%cc%87-poli%cc%87ti%cc%87kasi-ri%cc%87skler-firsatlar-ve-gercekli%cc%87gi%cc%87n-ayik-bi%cc%87r-anali%cc%87zi%cc%87\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Fracking, LNG ve enerji politikas\u0131: riskler, f\u0131rsatlar ve ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir analizi<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Do\u011fal gaz k\u0131rma ve enerji politikas\u0131\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Fracking-Energiepolitik.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Fracking-Energiepolitik.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Fracking-Energiepolitik-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Fracking-Energiepolitik-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Fracking-Energiepolitik-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/04\/fracking-lng-ve-enerji%cc%87-poli%cc%87ti%cc%87kasi-ri%cc%87skler-firsatlar-ve-gercekli%cc%87gi%cc%87n-ayik-bi%cc%87r-anali%cc%87zi%cc%87\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Fracking, LNG ve enerji politikas\u0131: riskler, f\u0131rsatlar ve ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir analizi<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"jeffrey sachs warnt deutschland: warum europas sicherheit neu gedacht werden muss\" data-id=\"4079\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft\" data-post_tag=\"deutschland energiepolitik eu-gesetze europa geopolitik krisen meinungsfreiheit portrait sicherheitspolitik\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/jeffrey-sachs-almanyayi-avrupanin-guevenli%cc%87gi%cc%87ni%cc%87n-neden-yeni%cc%87den-duesuenuelmesi%cc%87-gerekti%cc%87gi%cc%87-konusunda-uyariyor\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Jeffrey Sachs Almanya'y\u0131 uyar\u0131yor: Avrupa'n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi neden yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeli?<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Jeffrey Sachs \u015eans\u00f6lye Merz&#039;e a\u00e7\u0131k mektup yazd\u0131\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/jeffrey-sachs-bundeskanzler-eu.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/jeffrey-sachs-bundeskanzler-eu.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/jeffrey-sachs-bundeskanzler-eu-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/jeffrey-sachs-bundeskanzler-eu-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/jeffrey-sachs-bundeskanzler-eu-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/jeffrey-sachs-almanyayi-avrupanin-guevenli%cc%87gi%cc%87ni%cc%87n-neden-yeni%cc%87den-duesuenuelmesi%cc%87-gerekti%cc%87gi%cc%87-konusunda-uyariyor\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Jeffrey Sachs Almanya'y\u0131 uyar\u0131yor: Avrupa'n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi neden yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeli?<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"kriegst\u00fcchtigkeit, wehrpflicht &#038; verweigerung: was im ernstfall zu tun ist\" data-id=\"2966\"  data-category=\"allgemein b\u00fccher gesellschaft tipps &amp; anleitungen\" data-post_tag=\"buch deutschland geopolitik gesundheit krisen pers\u00f6nlichkeitsentwicklung ratgeber sicherheitspolitik\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/09\/askerli%cc%87k-hi%cc%87zmeti%cc%87ne-karsi-vi%cc%87cdani%cc%87-ret-aci%cc%87l-durumlarda-ne-yapilmali\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Sava\u015fa uygunluk, zorunlu askerlik ve ret: acil bir durumda ne yapmal\u0131<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1536\" height=\"1024\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Zorunlu askerlik: askerlik hizmetini reddetmek\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/wehrpflicht-kriegsdienst-verweigern.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/wehrpflicht-kriegsdienst-verweigern.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/wehrpflicht-kriegsdienst-verweigern-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/wehrpflicht-kriegsdienst-verweigern-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/wehrpflicht-kriegsdienst-verweigern-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/wehrpflicht-kriegsdienst-verweigern-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/09\/askerli%cc%87k-hi%cc%87zmeti%cc%87ne-karsi-vi%cc%87cdani%cc%87-ret-aci%cc%87l-durumlarda-ne-yapilmali\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Sava\u015fa uygunluk, zorunlu askerlik ve ret: acil bir durumda ne yapmal\u0131<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"der zwei-plus-vier-vertrag, die nato und die bundeswehr: was gilt heute noch?\" data-id=\"4740\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft\" data-post_tag=\"deutschland europa geopolitik krisen sicherheitspolitik spieltheorie\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/i%cc%87ki%cc%87-arti-doert-antlasmasi-nato-ve-bundeswehr-buguen-hala-gecerli%cc%87-olan\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u0130ki Art\u0131 D\u00f6rt Anla\u015fmas\u0131, NATO ve Bundeswehr: Bug\u00fcn hala ge\u00e7erli olan nedir?<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Zwei-Plus-Vier-Vertrag.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Zwei-Plus-Vier-Vertrag.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Zwei-Plus-Vier-Vertrag-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Zwei-Plus-Vier-Vertrag-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Zwei-Plus-Vier-Vertrag-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/i%cc%87ki%cc%87-arti-doert-antlasmasi-nato-ve-bundeswehr-buguen-hala-gecerli%cc%87-olan\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">\u0130ki Art\u0131 D\u00f6rt Anla\u015fmas\u0131, NATO ve Bundeswehr: Bug\u00fcn hala ge\u00e7erli olan nedir?<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Durumu istikrara kavu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in \u015fimdi yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekenler<\/h2>\n<p>D\u00fcr\u00fcst olmak gerekirse, \u015fu anda pek \u00e7ok ki\u015fi gerilimin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131ndan bahsediyor, ancak bunun i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ekte neyin gerekli oldu\u011funu neredeyse hi\u00e7 kimse belirtmiyor. Her g\u00fcn duydu\u011fumuz siyasi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar genellikle g\u00f6revle ilgili retorik egzersizlerden \u00f6teye gitmiyor - dostane bir \u015fekilde ifade edilmi\u015f ama asl\u0131nda etkisiz. B\u00f6yle bir durumda ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan \u015fey daha fazla s\u00f6z de\u011fil, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n daha da t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten \u00f6nleyecek yap\u0131lard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lk ad\u0131m, ne itirazlar\u0131n ne de ahlaki taleplerin durumu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini kabul etmektir. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ancak \u00fc\u00e7 ko\u015ful yerine getirilirse istikrara kavu\u015fur:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Her iki taraf da asgari d\u00fczeyde g\u00fcvenlik kazanmal\u0131d\u0131r<\/strong><br \/>\nG\u00fcvenlik olmadan t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fta azalma olamaz. \u0130srail i\u00e7in bu, f\u00fczelerden, insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131ndan ve sald\u0131r\u0131lardan kaynaklanan tehdidin tamamen de\u011fil ama hissedilir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u0130ran i\u00e7inse bu, geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 korkusunun ezici hale gelmemesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla gerilimi azaltma g\u00fcvenle de\u011fil, hesaplanm\u0131\u015f g\u00fcvenlikle ba\u015flar.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Her iki taraf da bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f stratejisini kabul etmelidir<\/strong><br \/>\nHer iki oyuncu da \u015fu anda art\u0131k arkas\u0131na \u00e7ekilemeyecekleri bir duvarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yalar. Ancak gerilimin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ancak birbirlerini siyasi olarak yok etmeden normale d\u00f6nmenin bir yolu varsa m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Her iki taraf\u0131n da sertlik g\u00f6sterip yine de teslim olmalar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak sembolik ba\u015far\u0131lara ihtiyac\u0131 var. Bunlar: s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ate\u015fkesler, baz\u0131 milislerin geri \u00e7ekilmesi, \u201eba\u015far\u0131\u201c olarak sat\u0131labilecek diplomatik arabuluculuk veya d\u0131\u015f arabuluculardan g\u00fcvenlik garantileri olabilir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>D\u0131\u015f oyuncular yeniden bir rol oynayabilmelidir<\/strong><br \/>\nB\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler ya a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fck alt\u0131nda, ya ilgisiz ya da kendi i\u00e7lerinde b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f olduklar\u0131 s\u00fcrece, ger\u00e7ek bir gerilimi azaltma \u00e7er\u00e7evesi olmayacakt\u0131r. \u0130htiya\u00e7 duyulan \u015fey, g\u00fcven yaratacak ya da en az\u0131ndan en k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fcnden duyulan korkuyu azaltacak yap\u0131sal bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>B\u00f6yle bir yap\u0131 olmadan, ne kadar \u00e7ok m\u00fczakere ilan edilirse edilsin durum istikrars\u0131z kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Bat\u0131'n\u0131n art\u0131k yapmamas\u0131 gerekenler<\/h3>\n<p>Son y\u0131llarda yap\u0131lan hatalar\u0131n bir\u00e7o\u011fu, d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeninin hala net oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemden kalma Bat\u0131l\u0131 reflekslerin sonucudur. Ancak bu refleksler bug\u00fcn etkisiz ve hatta tehlikelidir. Durumu istikrara kavu\u015fturmak isteyen herkes \u00f6ncelikle eski hatalar\u0131 tekrarlamaktan vazge\u00e7melidir.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Ahlaki kibir yok<\/strong><br \/>\nBat\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 stratejik olarak analiz etmeden \u00f6nce ahlaki a\u00e7\u0131dan de\u011ferlendirme e\u011filimindedir. Ancak varolu\u015fsal \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda ahlak\u0131n \u00e7ok az etkisi vard\u0131r. Devletler ahlaki kategorilere g\u00f6re de\u011fil, g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 mant\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re hareket ederler. Avrupa ya da ABD, son derece karma\u015f\u0131k bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar ya da yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilirmi\u015f gibi davranmaya devam ederse, sadece g\u00fcvenilirliklerini kaybetmekle kalmaz, ayn\u0131 zamanda kendileri de naif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrler.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Anlay\u0131\u015f olmadan m\u00fcdahale olmaz<\/strong><br \/>\nGe\u00e7mi\u015fte yap\u0131lan \u00f6nemli bir hata, yabanc\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerdeki siyasi sistemlerin k\u00fclt\u00fcrlerini, tarihlerini ve i\u00e7 yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 anlamadan \u201ereforme edilebilece\u011fi\u201c, \u201eistikrara kavu\u015fturulabilece\u011fi\u201c ve hatta \u201emodernize edilebilece\u011fi\u201c varsay\u0131m\u0131yd\u0131. Irak, Afganistan, Libya ve Suriye'de felaketlere yol a\u00e7an da tam olarak buydu. \u0130ran'daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, yerel mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlamadan m\u00fcdahale etmenin gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir kez daha g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>M\u00fczakerelerde ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmayan beklentilere girilmemesi<\/strong><br \/>\nM\u00fczakereler her derde deva de\u011fildir. Sadece her iki taraf\u0131n da kazanacak ve kaybedecek bir \u015feyleri varsa i\u015fe yararlar. Mevcut durumda m\u00fczakereler \u00e7o\u011fu zaman sembolik eylemlerden \u00f6teye gidemiyor. Ger\u00e7ek diplomasi, h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve baz\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ancak uzun vadeli d\u00fczenlemelerle istikrara kavu\u015fturulabilece\u011fini kabul etmelidir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>K\u00fcresel kontrol yan\u0131lsamas\u0131 yok<\/strong><br \/>\nBat\u0131'n\u0131n her an m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fi ve krizleri \u201ey\u00f6netebilece\u011fi\u201c fikri art\u0131k demode olmu\u015ftur. \u00c7ok kutuplu bir d\u00fcnyada m\u00fcdahalelerin istikrar sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil, istikrar\u0131 bozucu bir etkisi vard\u0131r. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde gerilimin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 hakimiyet yoluyla de\u011fil, s\u0131n\u0131rlama yoluyla sa\u011flanmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3>\u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n G\u00f6lgesindeki Almanya<\/h3>\n<p>Gazeteci ve jeopolitik g\u00f6zlemci Patrik Baab verdi\u011fi konferansta ABD, \u0130srail ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki mevcut sava\u015f\u0131 analiz ediyor ve bunu daha geni\u015f bir k\u00fcresel ba\u011flama yerle\u015ftiriyor. Baab, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzun zamandan beri Orta Do\u011fu'nun \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ti\u011fini ve Bat\u0131 ile geli\u015fmekte olan BRICS devletleri aras\u0131ndaki daha geni\u015f bir g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesinin par\u00e7as\u0131 oldu\u011funu savunuyor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_GsgC7BF-kZA\"><div id=\"lyte_GsgC7BF-kZA\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FGsgC7BF-kZA%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/GsgC7BF-kZA\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FGsgC7BF-kZA%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\n\u0130ran'\u0131n i\u015fgali ya da: Almanya'n\u0131n da sava\u015f\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@PatrikBaab-Official\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Patrik Baab<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Almanya'n\u0131n da bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya dolayl\u0131 olarak - siyasi, askeri ve lojistik olarak, \u00f6rne\u011fin altyap\u0131, NATO yap\u0131lar\u0131 ve askeri i\u015fbirli\u011fi yoluyla - dahil oldu\u011fu tezi \u00f6zellikle tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131. Baab konu\u015fmas\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131'n\u0131n stratejik \u00f6nemine, Avrupa i\u00e7in olas\u0131 ekonomik sonu\u00e7lara ve bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n arka plan\u0131nda Rusya ve \u00c7in'in rol\u00fcne de \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutuyor.<\/p>\n<h3>Yeni bir Avrupa g\u00fcvenlik k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc<\/h3>\n<p>Avrupa k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir alt\u00fcst olu\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Sadece Orta Do\u011fu'daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle de\u011fil, bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma Avrupa'n\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131, ekonomi, medya ve diplomasi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme bi\u00e7imlerine ne kadar acil ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funu ortaya koydu\u011fu i\u00e7in.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Avrupa d\u00fcnyay\u0131 ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6rmeyi \u00f6\u011frenmelidir<\/strong><br \/>\nAvrupa'n\u0131n kendi yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konfor alan\u0131nda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve krizlere sadece uzaktan bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler geride kald\u0131. G\u00fcvenlik k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc alarmc\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fil, ger\u00e7eklik duygusu anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Avrupa riskleri tan\u0131mlamal\u0131, kararlar almal\u0131 ve sorumluluk \u00fcstlenmelidir - sadece sembolik politikalarla u\u011fra\u015fmamal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yeniden sanayile\u015fme ve enerji \u00f6zerkli\u011fi<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0130stikrarl\u0131 bir d\u0131\u015f politika her zaman ekonomik g\u00fcce dayan\u0131r. Avrupa on y\u0131llar boyunca sanayi temelini zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve kendisini enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale getirdi. Bu \u015fimdi intikam\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131yor. E\u011fer jeopolitik olarak hareket edebilmek istiyorsan\u0131z, ekonomik ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa ya da en az\u0131ndan sa\u011flam yap\u0131lara ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131z vard\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Medyatik \u00f6z-kapasitasyonun \u00fcstesinden gelmek<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00d6nemli bir nokta: medya krizleri yumu\u015fak bir \u015fekilde ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, toplumun diren\u00e7li hale gelmesini engeller. Yeni bir g\u00fcvenlik k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc, yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran de\u011fil a\u00e7\u0131klayan medyaya ihtiya\u00e7 duyar - d\u00fcr\u00fcst, s\u00fcss\u00fcz ama sorumlu bir \u015fekilde.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ahlak\u00e7\u0131l\u0131k yapmadan diplomasi<\/strong><br \/>\nDiplomasi ahlaki yarg\u0131larda bulunmak de\u011fildir. \u00c7\u0131karlar\u0131 dengelemekle ilgilidir. Avrupa'n\u0131n bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi kabul eden bir d\u0131\u015f politikaya ihtiyac\u0131 vard\u0131r. Zor akt\u00f6rlerle konu\u015fmak zorunda oldu\u011funuzu anlayan bir d\u0131\u015f politika - onlar\u0131 sevdi\u011finiz i\u00e7in de\u011fil, var olduklar\u0131 i\u00e7in.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i \u00f6ncelikler<\/strong><br \/>\nAvrupa yan konulara saplan\u0131p kalmaktan vazge\u00e7melidir. G\u00fcvenlik, enerji, sanayi, altyap\u0131 ve bilgi egemenli\u011fi temel konulard\u0131r. Di\u011fer her \u015fey daha sonra gelir.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3>T\u0131rmanma ve stratejik yeniden y\u00f6nlendirme aras\u0131nda Avrupa'n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/jeffrey-sachs-almanyayi-avrupanin-guevenli%cc%87gi%cc%87ni%cc%87n-neden-yeni%cc%87den-duesuenuelmesi%cc%87-gerekti%cc%87gi%cc%87-konusunda-uyariyor\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-4082\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/jeffrey-sachs-bundeskanzler-eu-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Jeffrey Sachs \u015eans\u00f6lye Merz&#039;e a\u00e7\u0131k mektup yazd\u0131\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/jeffrey-sachs-bundeskanzler-eu-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/jeffrey-sachs-bundeskanzler-eu-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/jeffrey-sachs-bundeskanzler-eu-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/jeffrey-sachs-bundeskanzler-eu.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Orta Do\u011fu'daki mevcut t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f temel bir soruyu da g\u00fcndeme getiriyor: Avrupa k\u00fcresel g\u00fcvenlik mimarisinde hala nas\u0131l bir rol oynamaktad\u0131r? Ekonomist ve jeopolitik analist Jeffrey Sachs'\u0131n Alman h\u00fck\u00fcmetine yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131k mektubunda sordu\u011fu soru tam da bu. Sachs, Avrupa'da g\u00fcvenli\u011fin tek tarafl\u0131 olarak kavramsalla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u201eb\u00f6l\u00fcnmez g\u00fcvenlik\u201c ilkesine dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle istikrar\u0131n uzun vadede ancak t\u00fcm b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131n \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda i\u015fe yarayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor. Benim makalemde <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/jeffrey-sachs-almanyayi-avrupanin-guevenli%cc%87gi%cc%87ni%cc%87n-neden-yeni%cc%87den-duesuenuelmesi%cc%87-gerekti%cc%87gi%cc%87-konusunda-uyariyor\/\"><em><strong>\u201eJeffrey Sachs Almanya'y\u0131 uyar\u0131yor: Avrupa'n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi neden yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeli?\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/a> bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak incelenmektedir. Metin, Sachs'\u0131n diplomasiye, stratejik ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ili\u011fe ve uzun vadeli istikrara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn neden gerekli oldu\u011funa inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n<h3>Olas\u0131 gelecek senaryolar\u0131 ve bunlar\u0131n stratejik \u00f6nemi<\/h3>\n<div style=\"overflow-x: auto;\">\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background: #f2f2f2;\">\n<td><strong>Senaryo<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>K\u0131sa a\u00e7\u0131klama<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Stratejik sonu\u00e7lar<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilimi azaltma<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>K\u0131sa s\u00fcreli ate\u015fkesler, dolayl\u0131 arabuluculuk, k\u0131smi geri \u00e7ekilmeler.<\/td>\n<td>Ge\u00e7ici olarak stabilize eder, ancak temel sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmez.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Devam eden t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>Daha fazla f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, b\u00f6lgesel geni\u015fleme, vekalet sava\u015flar\u0131.<\/td>\n<td>Y\u00fcksek stratejik kontrol kayb\u0131 riski.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>\u015eok olay\u0131<\/strong> (\u00f6rn. taktik n\u00fckleer silah)<\/td>\n<td>Tabular\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u015fok dalgas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik yeniden yap\u0131lanma.<\/td>\n<td>K\u00fcresel istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, t\u00fcm g\u00fcvenlik mimarilerinin yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesi.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Bu kriz neden bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 - Bat\u0131 bir yol ayr\u0131m\u0131nda<\/h2>\n<p>Mevcut gerilimi so\u011fukkanl\u0131l\u0131kla analiz etti\u011finizde, sadece b\u00f6lgesel bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma de\u011fil, d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeninde tektonik bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz. Bu, Bat\u0131'n\u0131n stratejik a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar kaybetti\u011fini g\u00f6steren bir and\u0131r - aniden de\u011fil, ama \u015fimdi ilk kez g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir \u015fekilde y\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131kan bir t\u00fcr s\u00fcr\u00fcnen erozyonla.<\/p>\n<p>Orta Do\u011fu'daki kriz bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131d\u0131r \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc t\u00fcm zay\u0131fl\u0131klar\u0131 ayn\u0131 anda ortaya \u00e7\u0131karmaktad\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>jeopolitik kontrol eksikli\u011fi,<\/li>\n<li>ahlaki d\u00fczen i\u00e7in naif bir umut,<\/li>\n<li>medya kendini yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma,<\/li>\n<li>ekonomik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k,<\/li>\n<li>ve Bat\u0131 d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n stratejik par\u00e7alanmas\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bat\u0131l\u0131 devletler on y\u0131llard\u0131r ilk kez ne manevra alanlar\u0131n\u0131n ne de \u00fcst\u00fcn stratejik ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu bir durumla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yalar. \u0130tiraz edebilir, uyarabilir ve \u00f6\u011f\u00fct verebilirler ama art\u0131k durumu \u015fekillendiremezler. Durumu bu kadar istikrars\u0131z k\u0131lan da tam olarak bu. On y\u0131llar boyunca \u00f6rg\u00fctleyici bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir sistem yap\u0131sal merkezini kaybetti.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak tam da b\u00f6yle oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu an\u0131n \u00f6zel bir \u00f6nemi var: bizi ger\u00e7eklikle yeniden ili\u015fki kurmaya zorluyor. Zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan de\u011fil, zorunluluktan.<\/p>\n<h3>Krizdeki f\u0131rsat: ger\u00e7e\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f<\/h3>\n<p>Paradoksal olarak, bu t\u00fcr krizler ayn\u0131 zamanda Bat\u0131 siyasetinin y\u0131llard\u0131r unuttu\u011fu bir \u015fey i\u00e7in de f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor: stratejik kararlar\u0131n art\u0131k h\u00fcsn\u00fckuruntu, sembolik siyaset ya da ahlaki iddialara de\u011fil, g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesinin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirilmesine dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00fcnyaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>On y\u0131llar boyunca insanlar, yeterince a\u00e7\u0131klar, yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygular ya da itiraz ederseniz d\u00fcnyan\u0131n de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fine inand\u0131lar. Ancak mevcut t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f bunu g\u00f6steriyor: K\u00fcresel siyaset tek tek devletlerin ahlaki iradesine itaat etmez. Yap\u0131lar\u0131, \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131, tarihsel \u00e7izgileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7 ili\u015fkilerini takip eder.<\/p>\n<p>Bu fark\u0131ndal\u0131k rahats\u0131z edicidir - ama faydal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ancak ger\u00e7ek anlamda g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir d\u00fcnya ger\u00e7ek anlamda \u015fekillendirilebilir. Ve sadece di\u011fer akt\u00f6rlerin kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131, kendi rasyonaliteleri ve kendi g\u00fc\u00e7 ara\u00e7lar\u0131 oldu\u011funu kabul eden bir politika uzun vadede ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n<h3>Yeni bir stratejik ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ilik<\/h3>\n<p>Bat\u0131 \u015fimdi bir se\u00e7imle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ya eski \u00f6z imaj\u0131na tutunur ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yeniden uyum sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 umar.<\/li>\n<li>Ya da d\u00fcnyan\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini ve kendisinin de onunla birlikte de\u011fi\u015fmesi gerekti\u011fini kabul eder.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Stratejik ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ilik sinizm de\u011fil, a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k anlam\u0131na gelir. \u0130stifa de\u011fil, yeni bir temel. \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye, Hindistan ve Suudi Arabistan gibi devletlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra pek \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck oyuncunun kendine daha fazla g\u00fcvendi\u011fi bir d\u00fcnya, Avrupa ve ABD'nin daha az ders veren ve daha fazla anlayan bir d\u0131\u015f politika izlemesini gerektirmektedir. Daha az tepki veren ve daha \u00e7ok \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcde bulunan bir g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131. Ve daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ve daha diren\u00e7li bir ekonomi ve enerji politikas\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma bir \u015fey g\u00f6steriyorsa, o da kendini kan\u0131tlamaya dayal\u0131 bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeninin yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fidir.<\/p>\n<h3>\u0130leriye bakmak - ve gelece\u011fin neden kesin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>Mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n nas\u0131l sona erece\u011fini bug\u00fcnden s\u00f6yleyebilece\u011fimizi iddia etmek k\u00fcstahl\u0131k olur. Ortada \u00e7ok fazla de\u011fi\u015fken, \u00e7ok fazla olas\u0131 d\u00f6neme\u00e7 ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, \u00e7ok fazla stratejik bilinmeyen var. Ancak bu son b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6nemli k\u0131lan da tam olarak bu: bir yarg\u0131ya varmak de\u011fil, yol g\u00f6stermek.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Temel siyasi kal\u0131plar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini biliyoruz.<\/li>\n<li>Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n art\u0131k otomatik olarak i\u015flemedi\u011fini biliyoruz.<\/li>\n<li>G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini ve durdurulmas\u0131n\u0131n daha zor oldu\u011funu biliyoruz.<\/li>\n<li>Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin art\u0131k k\u00fcresel krizleri tek ba\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6netme imkan\u0131na sahip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ve biliyoruz ki bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma -t\u0131pk\u0131 Ukrayna'daki sava\u015f gibi- daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fimin par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r: g\u00fcc\u00fcn, etkinin ve risklerin eskisinden farkl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok kutuplu bir d\u00fcnyaya do\u011fru ge\u00e7i\u015f.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yat\u0131\u015f\u0131p yat\u0131\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya da daha da t\u0131rman\u0131p t\u0131rmanmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyoruz.<\/li>\n<li>D\u0131\u015f oyuncular\u0131n ger\u00e7ekte nas\u0131l bir rol oynayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyoruz.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130srail ve \u0130ran'\u0131n mevcut pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha ne kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebileceklerini bilmiyoruz.<\/li>\n<li>Ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel istikrara m\u0131 yoksa stratejik bir zincirleme reaksiyona m\u0131 yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyoruz.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Stratejik belirsizli\u011fin \u00f6z\u00fc budur: neyin gelece\u011fini bilmezsiniz, ancak buna yol a\u00e7abilecek mekanizmalar\u0131 bilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<h3>A\u00e7\u0131k u\u00e7 - \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ba\u015fka yolu yok<\/h3>\n<p>Bu krizin \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f bir sonu yoktur. Kapanm\u0131\u015f bir sayfa de\u011fil, geli\u015fmeye devam eden bir s\u00fcre\u00e7tir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llar\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 karakterini belirleyebilecek bir s\u00fcre\u00e7. Ve bizi jeopolitik geli\u015fmeleri \u00f6ng\u00f6rebilece\u011fimiz ya da kontrol edebilece\u011fimiz yan\u0131lsamas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7meye zorluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Belki de bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma yeni bir b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczene yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Belki de istikrars\u0131z bir ate\u015fkes evresiyle sona erecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Belki de yeniden bir denge bulunmadan \u00f6nce t\u0131rmanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Belki de bu durum Bat\u0131'n\u0131n uzun vadede siyasi olarak yeniden y\u00f6nlenmesine yol a\u00e7acak ve Bat\u0131'y\u0131 yeniden harekete ge\u00e7meye daha muktedir k\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak kesin olan bir \u015fey var: bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131d\u0131r. Ve d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zelli\u011fi, yolculu\u011fun nereye do\u011fru gitti\u011fini hemen s\u00f6ylemeden y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmeleridir. Stratejik olarak konu\u015fursak, olaylara bakman\u0131n tek d\u00fcr\u00fcst yolu budur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu durumda kesinlik iddias\u0131nda bulunan herkes durumu anlamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>\u00d6zlem ve jeopolitik ger\u00e7eklik aras\u0131nda uluslararas\u0131 hukuk<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/gercekli%cc%87k-ve-hukukun-i%cc%87hlali%cc%87-arasinda-kurala-dayali-duenya-duezeni%cc%87-ve-uluslararasi-hukuk\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-4281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/voelkerrecht-weltordnung-titel-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Uluslararas\u0131 hukuk ve kurallara dayal\u0131 d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/voelkerrecht-weltordnung-titel-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/voelkerrecht-weltordnung-titel-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/voelkerrecht-weltordnung-titel-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/voelkerrecht-weltordnung-titel.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>\u0130srail, ABD ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki mevcut gerginlik ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak temel bir soruyu g\u00fcndeme getiriyor: G\u00fc\u00e7 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00fcnyada uluslararas\u0131 hukuk ger\u00e7ekte hala nas\u0131l bir rol oynamaktad\u0131r? Siyasi konu\u015fmalarda s\u0131kl\u0131kla \u201ekurallara dayal\u0131 bir uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczenden\u201c bahsedilir, ancak kriz anlar\u0131nda stratejik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n, askeri mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve jeopolitik rekabetin bu ilkeleri ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131labilece\u011fi tekrar tekrar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. Tam da bu gerilim alan\u0131n\u0131 arka plan makalesinde daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak inceliyorum <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/01\/gercekli%cc%87k-ve-hukukun-i%cc%87hlali%cc%87-arasinda-kurala-dayali-duenya-duezeni%cc%87-ve-uluslararasi-hukuk\/\"><em><strong>\u201eKurala dayal\u0131 d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni ve uluslararas\u0131 hukuk: iddia, ger\u00e7eklik ve hukuk ihlali aras\u0131nda\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/a>. Uluslararas\u0131 sistemi bir arada tutmas\u0131 gereken kurallar\u0131, bu kurallar\u0131n neden s\u00fcrekli ihlal edildi\u011fini ve uluslararas\u0131 hukukun istikrar ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda neden merkezi bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ele al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Konuyla ilgili derinlemesine kaynaklar<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/gallery\/2025\/6\/18\/the-history-of-netanyahus-rhetoric-on-irans-nuclear-ambitions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Netanyahu'nun \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer hedeflerine ili\u015fkin s\u00f6yleminin ge\u00e7mi\u015fi<\/a><\/b>Al Jazeera, Binyamin Netanyahu'nun \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah program\u0131na ili\u015fkin otuz y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 siyasi uyar\u0131lara genel bir bak\u0131\u015f sunuyor. Analiz, bu uyar\u0131lar\u0131n 1990'lar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana kamuoyu \u00f6n\u00fcnde nas\u0131l tekrarland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theweek.com\/speedreads\/542019\/netanyahu-been-warning-iran-isclose-nuke-since-1992\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Netanyahu 1992'den beri \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer bombaya yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu konusunda uyar\u0131yor<\/a><\/b>: Netanyahu'nun 1992 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130ran'\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 ila be\u015f y\u0131l i\u00e7inde n\u00fckleer bomba geli\u015ftirebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc de dahil olmak \u00fczere 1990'lar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamalara genel bir bak\u0131\u015f. Makale, tekrarlanan uyar\u0131lar\u0131 kronolojik s\u0131rayla \u00f6zetlemektedir.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.csmonitor.com\/World\/Middle-East\/2011\/1108\/Imminent-Iran-nuclear-threat-A-timeline-of-warnings-since-1979\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Yak\u0131n \u0130ran n\u00fckleer tehdidi mi? 1979'dan bu yana yap\u0131lan uyar\u0131lar\u0131n zaman \u00e7izelgesi<\/a><\/b>Christian Science Monitor, Bat\u0131'n\u0131n \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n tarihini izliyor ve de\u011ferlendirmelerin on y\u0131llar boyunca nas\u0131l geli\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Zaman \u00e7izelgesi, \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7evreleyen siyasi tart\u0131\u015fmalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir tarihsel ba\u011flam sunmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.il\/en\/pages\/speechun270912\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ba\u015fbakan Netanyahu'nun Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Genel Kurulu Konu\u015fmas\u0131 (2012)<\/a><\/b>Netanyahu'nun BM Genel Kurulu'nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah program\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmak i\u00e7in grafik bir temsil (\u201ek\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi\u201c) kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcnl\u00fc konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n resmi belgesi. Bu konu\u015fma \u0130ran'a ili\u015fkin uluslararas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n en \u00fcnl\u00fc anlar\u0131ndan biri haline geldi.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.csmonitor.com\/World\/Middle-East\/2012\/0928\/Netanyahu-s-simple-bomb-graphic-confuses-the-nuclear-experts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Netanyahu'nun basit bomba grafi\u011fi n\u00fckleer uzmanlar\u0131n kafas\u0131n\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor<\/a><\/b>: Netanyahu'nun 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda BM'de sundu\u011fu son derece sembolik \u201ekarikat\u00fcr bomba\u201c grafi\u011finin analizi. Uzmanlar \u00e7izimin \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin karma\u015f\u0131k teknik konular\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde basitle\u015ftirmesini ele\u015ftirdi.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2012\/sep\/27\/binyamin-netanyahu-cartoon-bomb-un\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Netanyahu'nun bomba \u015femas\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu - ancak Ba\u015fbakan'\u0131n istedi\u011fi \u015fekilde de\u011fil<\/a><\/b>The Guardian, Netanyahu'nun \u00fcnl\u00fc BM konu\u015fmas\u0131na verilen uluslararas\u0131 tepkiyi ve d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7eken ve \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u015fekillendiren sembolik \u201ebomba \u00e7izimini\u201c ele al\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-06-13\/after-30-years-of-hesitation-netanyahu-pulled-the-trigger\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">30 Y\u0131ll\u0131k Uyar\u0131lar\u0131n Ard\u0131ndan Netanyahu Teti\u011fi \u00c7ekti<\/a><\/b>Bloomberg, Netanyahu'nun on y\u0131llar boyunca \u0130ran'\u0131 \u0130srail i\u00e7in nas\u0131l temel bir varolu\u015fsal tehdit olarak g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ve nihayetinde \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 askeri harek\u00e2t\u0131 nas\u0131l destekledi\u011fini analiz ediyor.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/world\/us\/iran-on-brink-of-nuclear-bomb-in-6-7-months-netanyahu-idUSBRE88F06Q\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0130ran 6-7 ay i\u00e7inde n\u00fckleer bomban\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde: Netanyahu<\/a><\/b>Reuters, Netanyahu'nun 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130ran'\u0131n birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde n\u00fckleer bomba yapma kabiliyetine ula\u015fabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 konu alan bir haber yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Haber, \u0130srail h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin tekrar eden alarm mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6rnekliyor.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Nuclear_program_of_Iran\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0130ran'\u0131n N\u00fckleer Program\u0131<\/a><\/b>1950'lerdeki ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan 1979 devrimine ve mevcut uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara kadar \u0130ran n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n tarihi, geli\u015fimi ve etraf\u0131ndaki siyasi tart\u0131\u015fmalara genel bak\u0131\u015f.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Timeline_of_the_nuclear_program_of_Iran\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0130ran'\u0131n N\u00fckleer Program\u0131n\u0131n Zaman \u00c7izelgesi<\/a><\/b>Uluslararas\u0131 m\u00fczakereler, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve 2015 n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 (JCPOA) dahil olmak \u00fczere \u0130ran n\u00fckleer program\u0131ndaki en \u00f6nemli olaylar\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 kronolojisi.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/thebulletin.org\/2025\/06\/a-simple-timeline-of-irans-nuclear-program\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0130ran'\u0131n N\u00fckleer Program\u0131na \u0130li\u015fkin Basit Bir Zaman \u00c7izelgesi<\/a><\/b>Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fimini ve JCPOA gibi uluslararas\u0131 anla\u015fmalar\u0131n siyasi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Analizde teknik ilerleme ve diplomatik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar kategorize ediliyor.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/iramcenter.org\/en\/netanyahus-nuclear-gamble-the-risks-of-escalation-with-iran_en-2607\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Netanyahu'nun N\u00fckleer Kumar\u0131: \u0130ran ile Gerilimin Riskleri<\/a><\/b>Iram Centre taraf\u0131ndan \u0130srail ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda askeri bir t\u0131rmanman\u0131n stratejik riskleri ve Netanyahu'nun \u0130ran n\u00fckleer meselesine ili\u015fkin uzun vadeli siyasi arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131 \u00fczerine bir analiz.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2012-09-28\/netanyahu-draws-red-line-on-irans-nuke-program\/4285214\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Netanyahu \u0130ran'\u0131n N\u00fckleer Program\u0131 Konusunda \u2018K\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00c7izgi\u2019 \u00c7izdi<\/a><\/b>Netanyahu'nun BM konu\u015fmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer bomba yapmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in net bir uluslararas\u0131 \u201ek\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi\u201c \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 hakk\u0131nda rapor.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/13d04138deb51e3f6315fa4ab5973cc0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0130srail'in \u0130ran'a sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 Netanyahu i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ek an\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor<\/a><\/b>AP haber ajans\u0131, Netanyahu'nun \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer tehdidi konusunda uzun s\u00fcredir yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131lar\u0131 ve bunun \u0130srail'in g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 ve askeri kararlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisini analiz ediyor.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/global-conflict-tracker\/conflict\/confrontation-between-united-states-and-iran\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ABD ve \u0130ran Aras\u0131nda \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma<\/a><\/strong>Council on Foreign Relations'\u0131n Global Conflict Tracker'\u0131 \u0130ran, ABD ve b\u00f6lgesel m\u00fcttefikleri aras\u0131ndaki stratejik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n s\u00fcrekli g\u00fcncellenen bir analizini sunuyor. Site, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tarihsel nedenlerini, \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n rol\u00fcn\u00fc, b\u00f6lgesel vekalet sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ve Washington, Tahran ve \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki askeri dinamikleri a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/global-conflict-tracker\/conflict\/confrontation-between-united-states-and-iran\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ABD ve \u0130ran Aras\u0131nda \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma<\/a><\/b>Council on Foreign Relations'\u0131n Global Conflict Tracker'\u0131 \u0130ran, ABD ve b\u00f6lgesel m\u00fcttefikleri aras\u0131ndaki stratejik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n s\u00fcrekli g\u00fcncellenen bir analizini sunuyor. Site, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tarihsel nedenlerini, \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n rol\u00fcn\u00fc, b\u00f6lgesel vekalet sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ve Washington, Tahran ve \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki askeri dinamikleri a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/dispatches\/experts-react-the-us-and-israel-just-unleashed-a-major-attack-on-iran-whats-next\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Uzmanlar Tepkili: ABD-\u0130srail'in \u0130ran'a Sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131ndan Sonra Ne Olacak?<\/a><\/b>Atlantik Konseyi'nin \u00e7e\u015fitli g\u00fcvenlik uzmanlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u0130ran'a kar\u015f\u0131 ortak bir askeri sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n stratejik \u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin analiz. Makale \u0130ran'\u0131n olas\u0131 tepkilerini, b\u00f6lgesel t\u0131rmanma risklerini ve Orta Do\u011fu ile uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan uzun vadeli jeopolitik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 analiz etmektedir.<b><\/b><\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.chathamhouse.org\/2026\/02\/us-and-israel-attack-iran-early-analysis-chatham-house-experts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ABD ve \u0130srail \u0130ran'a Sald\u0131r\u0131yor - Erken Stratejik Analiz<\/a><\/b>\u0130ngiliz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu Chatham House'un \u0130ran'a kar\u015f\u0131 askeri harekat\u0131n nedenleri ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fczerine uzman analizi. Raporda \u0130ran'\u0131n f\u00fcze cephaneli\u011fi, b\u00f6lgesel milisleri ve \u00fclkenin Orta Do\u011fu'nun g\u00fc\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki uzun vadeli rol\u00fc de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<b><\/b><\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.chathamhouse.org\/2026\/03\/iran-war-exposes-limits-russias-leverage-fragmenting-regional-order\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 Rusya'n\u0131n Kald\u0131ra\u00e7 G\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn S\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 Ortaya Koyuyor<\/a><\/b>\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n Rusya'n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu'daki etkisini nas\u0131l s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair stratejik analiz, ayn\u0131 zamanda par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f bir b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczeni ortaya koyuyor. Makale, Moskova'n\u0131n rol\u00fcne, Tahran ile ili\u015fkilerine ve k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi \u00fczerindeki etkisine \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutuyor.<b><\/b><\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.specialeurasia.com\/2026\/03\/01\/russia-china-iran-tech-military\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rus ve \u00c7in Teknolojisi \u0130ran'\u0131n Stratejik Derinli\u011fini Nas\u0131l Destekliyor?<\/a><\/b>: \u0130ran, Rusya ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki askeri ve teknolojik i\u015fbirli\u011fini analiz etmektedir. Makale, teknoloji transferleri, askeri i\u015fbirli\u011fi ve ekonomik a\u011flar\u0131n \u0130ran'\u0131n Bat\u0131 ile olan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndaki stratejik konumunu nas\u0131l g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<b><\/b><\/li>\n<li><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.oxfordeconomics.com\/iran-conflict-us-israel-iran-war-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0130ran \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 - Ekonomik ve K\u00fcresel Piyasa Etkileri<\/a><\/b>Oxford Economics taraf\u0131ndan \u0130ran ile bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ekonomik etkileri \u00fczerine yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma. Analiz \u00f6zellikle enerji fiyatlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirleri, finans piyasalar\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu'da uzun s\u00fcreli bir t\u0131rmanma durumunda k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in olas\u0131 senaryolar\u0131 incelemektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>S\u0131k\u00e7a sorulan sorular<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>\u0130srail ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma neden stratejik a\u00e7\u0131dan bu kadar tehlikeli g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc burada ayn\u0131 anda bir\u00e7ok d\u00fczey bir araya geliyor: varolu\u015fsal olarak tehdit alt\u0131nda bir \u0130srail, uzun vadeli bir \u0130ran, zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f Bat\u0131 n\u00fcfuz yap\u0131lar\u0131, par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f b\u00f6lgesel ittifaklar ve ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecindeki bir k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131. Bu kombinasyon geleneksel istikrar mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k etkili olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir durum yarat\u0131yor. Stratejistler bu t\u00fcr durumlardan korkarlar \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc art\u0131k \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir de\u011fildirler ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck hatalar\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olabilir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0130srail neden durumu sakinle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in daha az sert tepki veremiyor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0130srail i\u00e7in itidal tarafs\u0131z bir ad\u0131m de\u011fildir. G\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr herhangi bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k kendi cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na zarar verebilir ve halk\u0131 tedirgin edebilir. \u00dclke kendini varolu\u015fsal olarak tehdit alt\u0131nda hissediyor ve b\u00f6yle durumlarda sertlik genellikle gerekli bir savunma olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda i\u00e7eride de daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 engelleyen siyasi bask\u0131lar var. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u0130srail kendini, itidalin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm de\u011fil risk olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir durumda buluyor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0130ran neden basit\u00e7e geri \u00e7ekilemiyor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0130ran me\u015fruiyetini direni\u015f, kararl\u0131l\u0131k ve b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 projeksiyonu \u00fczerinden tan\u0131mlamaktad\u0131r. Geri \u00e7ekilme i\u00e7eride zay\u0131fl\u0131k olarak yorumlanacak ve rejimi istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r. D\u0131\u015f politika a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise pes etmek cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n yitirilmesi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Tahran i\u00e7in geri ad\u0131m atmak sadece siyasi bir sorun de\u011fil, yap\u0131sal bir sorundur. Bu da \u0130ran'\u0131n -t\u0131pk\u0131 \u0130srail gibi- gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rmay\u0131 tercih eden bir mant\u0131\u011fa hapsoldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Netanyahu'nun onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc uyar\u0131 politikas\u0131 mevcut durumda nas\u0131l bir rol oynuyor?<\/strong><br \/>\n1990\u201elardan bu yana \u0130ran y\u00f6netiminin \u201cyak\u0131nda n\u00fckleer kapasiteye sahip olaca\u011f\u0131\" y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tekrarlanan uyar\u0131lar \u0130srail'deki siyasi k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc \u015fekillendirmi\u015f ve uluslararas\u0131 beklentileri olu\u015fturmu\u015ftur. Ancak bu uyar\u0131lar\u0131n s\u00fcrekli tekrarlanmas\u0131 etkilerini azaltm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u015eimdi durum ger\u00e7ekten vahim oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu alarm \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130srail, geri \u00e7ekilmenin siyaseten pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00e7izgiye do\u011fru manevra yapt\u0131.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Uzmanlar bug\u00fcn neden aniden taktik n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131ndan bahsediyor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir\u00e7ok risk fakt\u00f6r\u00fc ayn\u0131 anda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r: \u0130srail'in a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gerilmi\u015f savunma sistemi, \u0130ran'\u0131n devasa f\u00fcze ve insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 kapasitesi, her iki taraf\u0131n da pes etmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 stratejik bir \u00e7\u0131kmaz ve Bat\u0131'n\u0131n eski istikrar \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131 rol\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetti\u011fi jeopolitik bir ortam. Taktik n\u00fckleer silahlar, varolu\u015fsal tehdit durumlar\u0131nda \u201eultima ratio\u201c olarak kabul edilmektedir - ve mevcut bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fme karar verme alanlar\u0131n\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Orta Do\u011fu'da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir n\u00fckleer sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ne olur?<\/strong><br \/>\nTaktiksel, stratejik olmayan bir konu\u015fland\u0131rman\u0131n bile k\u00fcresel sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik mimarisini sarsar, b\u00f6lgesel ittifaklar\u0131 istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r, piyasalar\u0131n dengesini bozar ve uluslararas\u0131 anla\u015fmalar\u0131n me\u015fruiyetinin sorgulanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Psikolojik etki \u00f6zellikle patlay\u0131c\u0131 olacakt\u0131r: tek seferlik bir konu\u015fland\u0131rma onlarca y\u0131ll\u0131k bir tabuyu y\u0131kacak ve taklit\u00e7ileri daha olas\u0131 hale getirecektir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Pakistan'\u0131n \u0130ran'a y\u00f6nelik bir n\u00fckleer sald\u0131r\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesi ne kadar olas\u0131d\u0131r?<\/strong><br \/>\nPakistan'\u0131n do\u011frudan bir n\u00fckleer kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131da bulunmas\u0131, \u00fclkeyi intihara s\u00fcr\u00fckleyecek bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya s\u00fcr\u00fckleyece\u011fi i\u00e7in pek olas\u0131 de\u011fildir. B\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla retorik k\u0131namalar, askeri seferberlik, diplomatik bask\u0131 ve Bat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 ittifaklar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi s\u00f6z konusu olacakt\u0131r. Ancak Pakistan'\u0131n n\u00fckleer bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olmas\u0131 ve kendisini M\u00fcsl\u00fcman d\u00fcnyan\u0131n koruyucu g\u00fcc\u00fc olarak g\u00f6rmesi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bug\u00fcn bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcvenli bir \u015fekilde durdurabilecek b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler kald\u0131 m\u0131?<\/strong><br \/>\nHay\u0131r. D\u00fcnya \u00e7ok kutuplu hale geldi. ABD a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, Avrupa siyasi olarak zay\u0131flad\u0131, Rusya ve \u00c7in kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015finde ko\u015fuyor ve \u0130ran \u00fczerinde sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir etkiye sahipler. Art\u0131k g\u00fcvenilir bir \u201et\u0131rman\u0131\u015f durdurucu\u201c olarak hareket edebilecek tek bir akt\u00f6r yok. Bu krizi \u00f6nceki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalardan ay\u0131ran \u015fey de tam olarak budur.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Neden Avrupa'da bir\u00e7ok insan tehlikeyi hafife al\u0131yor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc medya b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde filtrelenmi\u015f durumda. Bir\u00e7ok bat\u0131l\u0131 haber program\u0131 sadece soyutlanm\u0131\u015f veya etkisiz hale getirilmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler g\u00f6steriyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, derin yap\u0131sal ba\u011flant\u0131lar hakk\u0131nda nadiren bilgi veriyorlar. Bu da aldat\u0131c\u0131 bir mesafe hissi yarat\u0131yor. \u0130nsanlar sezgisel olarak \u201ebir \u015feylerin yanl\u0131\u015f gitti\u011fini\u201c hissetseler de, ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin tamam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6remiyorlar. Ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fck eksikli\u011fi aciliyet eksikli\u011fine yol a\u00e7ar.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bat\u0131 medyas\u0131 neden sava\u015f\u0131n ger\u00e7ek g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerini g\u00f6stermiyor ya da hafifletilmi\u015f bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6steriyor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7e\u015fitli nedenlerle: halk\u0131 \u015fok etmekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmak, sosyal istikrar\u0131 korumak, editoryal ihtiyat ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 belgeselden ziyade e\u011fitici bir \u015fekilde sunan geleneksel bir \u00f6z imaj nedeniyle. Ancak bu k\u0131s\u0131tlama bilgi bo\u015fluklar\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Bilgi bo\u015fluklar\u0131 da kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde tehlikeli hale gelir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yanl\u0131\u015f alg\u0131lamalara ve yanl\u0131\u015f siyasi kararlara yol a\u00e7ar.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u015eirketler \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya neden bu kadar temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u015eirketler risk sistemleridir. Jeopolitik belirsizlik artar artmaz i\u00e7g\u00fcd\u00fcsel olarak tepki verirler: yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ertelerler, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri azalt\u0131rlar, likiditeyi \u00e7ekerler ve daha muhafazakar planlar yaparlar. Tedarik zincirleri, enerji fiyatlar\u0131, sigorta primleri ve kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde jeopolitik geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. D\u00fcnya istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ekonomik faaliyetler genellikle donar - kriz bize ula\u015fmadan \u00e7ok \u00f6nce.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 bu geli\u015fmede nas\u0131l bir rol oynuyor?<\/strong><br \/>\nMerkezi bir rol. Orta Do\u011fu enerji arz\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir merkezdir. B\u00f6lgedeki herhangi bir belirsizli\u011fin petrol ve gaz fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde an\u0131nda etkisi olmaktad\u0131r. Bu fiyat hareketleri \u015firketler taraf\u0131ndan \u201ekorkutucu haberler\u201c olarak de\u011fil, t\u00fcm de\u011fer zincirini etkileyen ger\u00e7ek bir maliyet fakt\u00f6r\u00fc olarak alg\u0131lanmaktad\u0131r. Enerji, k\u00fcresel ekonominin g\u00f6r\u00fcnmez nabz\u0131d\u0131r ve bu nab\u0131z son derece hassas tepki verir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bat\u0131'n\u0131n \u0130ran'a y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131s\u0131 neden art\u0131k pek etkili olmuyor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ran art\u0131k Bat\u0131 sistemlerinden b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z hareket ediyor ve bunun yerine Asya pazarlar\u0131na, b\u00f6lgesel a\u011flara ve yeni jeopolitik ittifaklara g\u00fcveniyor. Eskiden etkili olan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar art\u0131k etkisini yitiriyor. \u0130ran ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n par\u00e7aland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da fark\u0131na varm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu da ge\u00e7mi\u015fte var olmayan bir manevra alan\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Diplomasi hala \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zebilir mi?<\/strong><br \/>\nDiplomasi bunu azaltabilir ama \u00e7\u00f6zemez. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n derin yap\u0131sal nedenleri vard\u0131r. Diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u00f6nemlidir ama ancak her iki taraf da bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu g\u00f6r\u00fcrse i\u015fe yarar. \u015eu anda ne \u0130srail ne de \u0130ran g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131n\u0131n temellerini tehlikeye atmadan b\u00f6yle bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu g\u00f6remiyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla diplomasi \u015fu anda sadece hasar s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 yapabilir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Avrupa bu t\u0131rman\u0131\u015ftan ne gibi dersler \u00e7\u0131karmal\u0131?<\/strong><br \/>\nAvrupa'n\u0131n tamamen yeni bir g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131 k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc geli\u015ftirmesi gerekecektir - daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i, daha sa\u011flam, daha ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z. Buna daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sanayi, g\u00fcvenilir bir enerji arz\u0131, ahlaki kibirden uzak stratejik bir d\u0131\u015f politika ve krizleri g\u00f6rmezden gelmeyen bir medya ortam\u0131 da dahildir. Bug\u00fcn Avrupa jeopolitik ger\u00e7eklik kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7ok ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131, \u00e7ok yava\u015f ve \u00e7ok naiftir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma neden d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni i\u00e7in bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131d\u0131r?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc eski bat\u0131l\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f d\u00fczenin art\u0131k i\u015flemedi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koyuyor. G\u00fc\u00e7 yeniden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131yor. Daha \u00f6nce sadece b\u00f6lgesel olarak ilgili olan devletler art\u0131k k\u00fcresel olarak hareket ediyor. Bat\u0131 art\u0131k \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n nas\u0131l y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclece\u011fini tek tarafl\u0131 olarak belirleyemiyor. D\u00fcnya \u00e7ok kutuplu hale geliyor - ve \u00e7ok kutuplu sistemler daha kaotik, daha dinamik ve kontrol edilmesi daha zor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Avrupa'da do\u011frudan sonu\u00e7lara haz\u0131rlanmak zorunda m\u0131y\u0131z?<\/strong><br \/>\nEvet - illa ki askeri olarak de\u011fil ama siyasi, ekonomik ve sosyal olarak. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131, enflasyon, tedarik zincirleri, g\u00f6\u00e7, g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 ve siyasi ruh hallerinin hepsi etkilenmektedir. Jeopolitik hi\u00e7bir zaman uzakta de\u011fildir. Bir\u00e7ok insan bunu ancak gecikmeli olarak fark etse de, ekonomik ve sosyal kanallar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015famlar\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczerinde her zaman bir etkisi vard\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Makale neden kas\u0131tl\u0131 olarak a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde sona eriyor?<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada net bir yol yok. \u00c7ok fazla de\u011fi\u015fken, \u00e7ok fazla oyuncu, \u00e7ok fazla tarihi \u00e7izgi i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7iyor. A\u00e7\u0131k bir son, ger\u00e7e\u011fi yapay bir sonu\u00e7tan daha iyi yans\u0131t\u0131r. Bunun gibi krizler s\u00fcre\u00e7lerdir, kapal\u0131 olaylar de\u011fil. Ve bunlar\u0131n geli\u015fimi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde, haftalarda ve aylarda - kendileri de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda olan akt\u00f6rler taraf\u0131ndan - al\u0131nacak kararlara ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"display-post-types\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">\n\t\t\t#dpt-wrapper-709 { --dpt-text-align: left;--dpt-image-crop: center;--dpt-border-radius: 5px;--dpt-h-gutter: 10px;--dpt-v-gutter: 9px; }\t\t\t<\/style>\n\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">#dpt-wrapper-709 { --dpt-title-font-style:normal;--dpt-title-font-weight:600;--dpt-title-line-height:1.5;--dpt-title-text-decoration:none;--dpt-title-text-transform:none;--dpt-excerpt-font-style:normal;--dpt-excerpt-font-weight:400;--dpt-excerpt-line-height:1.5;--dpt-excerpt-text-decoration:none;--dpt-excerpt-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta1-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta1-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta1-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta1-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta1-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta2-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta2-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta2-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta2-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta2-text-transform:none; }<\/style><div class=\"dpt-main-header\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-main-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dpt-main-title-text\">G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn sosyal sorunlar\u0131<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div id=\"dpt-wrapper-709\" class=\"dpt-wrapper dpt-mag1 land1 dpt-cropped dpt-flex-wrap\" >\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"vom ende der wehrpflicht bis zu schulstreiks: die neue debatte \u00fcber bundeswehr und bildung\" data-id=\"5147\"  data-category=\"allgemein featured gesellschaft\" data-post_tag=\"deutschland europa geopolitik krisen meinungsfreiheit sicherheitspolitik\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/zorunlu-askerli%cc%87gi%cc%87n-sona-ermesi%cc%87nden-okul-grevleri%cc%87ne-alman-si%cc%87lahli-kuvvetleri%cc%87-ve-egi%cc%87ti%cc%87m-uezeri%cc%87ne-yeni%cc%87-tartismalar\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Zorunlu askerli\u011fin sona ermesinden okul grevlerine: Bundeswehr ve e\u011fitim \u00fczerine yeni tart\u0131\u015fma<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Okullarda zorunlu askerlik hizmeti ve Bundeswehr ile ilgili okul grevleri\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Wehrpflicht-Schulstreiks.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Wehrpflicht-Schulstreiks.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Wehrpflicht-Schulstreiks-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Wehrpflicht-Schulstreiks-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Wehrpflicht-Schulstreiks-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/zorunlu-askerli%cc%87gi%cc%87n-sona-ermesi%cc%87nden-okul-grevleri%cc%87ne-alman-si%cc%87lahli-kuvvetleri%cc%87-ve-egi%cc%87ti%cc%87m-uezeri%cc%87ne-yeni%cc%87-tartismalar\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Zorunlu askerli\u011fin sona ermesinden okul grevlerine: Bundeswehr ve e\u011fitim \u00fczerine yeni tart\u0131\u015fma<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"reichweite ist kein eigentum \u2013 warum sichtbarkeit heute nicht mehr ausreicht\" data-id=\"3994\"  data-category=\"allgemein filemaker &amp; erp gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur\" data-post_tag=\"datenlogik datenschutz denkmodelle digitales eigentum erp-software\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/erisim-sahiplik-degildir-neden-goeruenuerluek-guenuemuezde-artik-yeterli-degildir\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Eri\u015fim sahiplik de\u011fildir - G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fck neden art\u0131k yeterli de\u011fil?<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Eri\u015fim ve sahiplik\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/reichweite-vs-eigentum.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/reichweite-vs-eigentum.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/reichweite-vs-eigentum-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/reichweite-vs-eigentum-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/reichweite-vs-eigentum-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/12\/erisim-sahiplik-degildir-neden-goeruenuerluek-guenuemuezde-artik-yeterli-degildir\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Eri\u015fim sahiplik de\u011fildir - G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fck neden art\u0131k yeterli de\u011fil?<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"gelenkt im alltag &#8211; wie moderne verkaufstricks unser verhalten steuern\" data-id=\"5750\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft stories &amp; humor\" data-post_tag=\"denkmodelle erfahrungen pers\u00f6nlichkeitsentwicklung prozesse ratgeber\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/04\/guenluek-yasamda-gueduemlue-modern-satis-numaralari-davranislarimizi-nasil-kontrol-edi%cc%87yor\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">G\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015famda g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc - Modern sat\u0131\u015f hileleri davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 nas\u0131l kontrol ediyor?<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"S\u00fcpermarkette ve internette sat\u0131\u015f hileleri\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Verkaufstricks.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Verkaufstricks.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Verkaufstricks-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Verkaufstricks-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Verkaufstricks-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/04\/guenluek-yasamda-gueduemlue-modern-satis-numaralari-davranislarimizi-nasil-kontrol-edi%cc%87yor\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">G\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015famda g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc - Modern sat\u0131\u015f hileleri davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 nas\u0131l kontrol ediyor?<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"beruf, weltbild, zukunft: entscheidungen im schatten des umbruchs\" data-id=\"3197\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft kunst &amp; kultur tipps &amp; anleitungen\" data-post_tag=\"erfahrungen krisen pers\u00f6nlichkeitsentwicklung ratgeber\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/10\/kari%cc%87yer-duenya-goeruesue-calkantilarin-goelgesi%cc%87nde-gelecege-yoeneli%cc%87k-kararlar\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Kariyer, d\u00fcnya g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, gelecek: de\u011fi\u015fimin g\u00f6lgesinde kararlar<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Karga\u015fan\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde al\u0131nan kararlar\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Entscheidungen-im-Schatten-Umbruch.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Entscheidungen-im-Schatten-Umbruch.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Entscheidungen-im-Schatten-Umbruch-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Entscheidungen-im-Schatten-Umbruch-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Entscheidungen-im-Schatten-Umbruch-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/10\/kari%cc%87yer-duenya-goeruesue-calkantilarin-goelgesi%cc%87nde-gelecege-yoeneli%cc%87k-kararlar\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Kariyer, d\u00fcnya g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, gelecek: de\u011fi\u015fimin g\u00f6lgesinde kararlar<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Konuyla ilgili eski haberler<\/h2>\n<p><strong>04.04.2026<\/strong>Almanya, \u0130ran'daki mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada ilk bak\u0131\u015fta g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli bir rol oynayabilir. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.t-online.de\/nachrichten\/deutschland\/militaer-verteidigung\/id_101196894\/iran-krieg-deutschland-koennte-trumps-krieg-empfindlich-stoeren.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Bir rapor g\u00f6steriyor ki<\/strong><\/a>, Ramstein gibi \u00f6nemli ABD \u00fcsleri de dahil olmak \u00fczere Almanya topraklar\u0131ndaki merkezi askeri altyap\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu'daki Amerikan operasyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in hayati bir i\u015fleve sahiptir. Bu tesisler \u00fczerinden lojistik destek, veri i\u015fleme ve koordinasyon olmadan bir\u00e7ok operasyonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi \u00e7ok daha zor olacakt\u0131r. Bu durum ayn\u0131 zamanda siyasi bir gerilim alan\u0131 da yarat\u0131yor: Alman h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu altyap\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlarsa, ABD'nin manevra alan\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli bir etkisi olabilir. \u015eimdiye kadar Almanya ittifak y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek resmi olarak geri ad\u0131m att\u0131 ancak yasal ve siyasi olarak m\u00fcdahale en az\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu da Almanya'y\u0131 jeopolitik dinamiklerin merkezine, kamuoyundaki tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n \u015fimdiye kadar g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden daha fazla yerle\u015ftiriyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma bir kez daha askeri altyap\u0131, siyasi kararlar ve uluslararas\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n birbiriyle ne kadar yak\u0131ndan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_dAIHCKGsolw\"><div id=\"lyte_dAIHCKGsolw\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FdAIHCKGsolw%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/dAIHCKGsolw\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FdAIHCKGsolw%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\nRamstein Hava \u00dcss\u00fc: ABD'nin \u0130ran'a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131nda Almanya'n\u0131n rol\u00fc nedir? | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@dwnews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">DW Haberler<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bu video Ramstein Hava \u00dcss\u00fc'n\u00fcn mevcut \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndaki rol\u00fcne \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutmakta ve Almanya'n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu'daki Amerikan askeri operasyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in ne kadar merkezi bir konumda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. Operasyonlar koordine ediliyor, veriler i\u015fleniyor ve lojistik s\u00fcre\u00e7ler Ramstein'dan kontrol ediliyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, ABD silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerinin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fu, ancak siyasi a\u00e7\u0131dan giderek daha tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hale geldi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Uzmanlar \u00fcss\u00fcn NATO ve ABD i\u00e7in stratejik \u00f6nemini ve bunun Almanya i\u00e7in do\u011furdu\u011fu sorular\u0131 analiz ediyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>31.03.2026<\/strong>\u0130ran ihtilaf\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7evreleyen gerilimler giderek Bat\u0131 ittifak\u0131 i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Son raporlara g\u00f6re <a href=\"https:\/\/orf.at\/stories\/3425530\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>\u0130talya ABD'ye askeri \u00fcs kullanma izni verdi<\/strong><\/a> \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131ndaki operasyonlar i\u00e7in Sicilya'ya g\u00f6nderilmesine karar verdi, zira bunun i\u00e7in parlamentodan zaman\u0131nda yetki al\u0131nmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Roma ayn\u0131 zamanda bunun siyasi de\u011fil hukuki bir karar oldu\u011funu vurgulamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Zaten daha \u00f6nce <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tagesschau.de\/ausland\/europa\/spanien-uberflugverbot-irankrieg-100.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>\u0130spanya net bir duru\u015f sergiliyor<\/strong><\/a>Madrid h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, ABD'nin Rota ve Mor\u00f3n gibi \u00f6nemli askeri \u00fcsleri kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndaki g\u00f6revler i\u00e7in \u0130spanyol hava sahas\u0131 \u00fczerinden u\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 yasaklad\u0131. Bunun arka plan\u0131nda \u0130spanya'n\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 desteklememe ve uluslararas\u0131 hukuk \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sorunlu olarak nitelendirme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki net siyasi \u00e7izgisi yatmaktad\u0131r. Genel olarak bu durum NATO i\u00e7inde giderek daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelen bir \u00e7atlak yarat\u0131yor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa \u00fclkeleri askeri t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa kat\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_opbLEN67oK8\"><div id=\"lyte_opbLEN67oK8\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FopbLEN67oK8%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/opbLEN67oK8\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FopbLEN67oK8%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\nABD borsa uzman\u0131 Koch: \u201eTrump'\u0131n eylemleri k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor\u201c | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@handelsblattvideo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Handelsblatt<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>25.03.2026<\/strong>: Almanya Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Steinmeier'in ABD ve \u0130srail'in \u0130ran'a y\u00f6nelik sava\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sert ele\u015ftirileri al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k bir heyecan yaratt\u0131. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spiegel.de\/politik\/frank-walter-steinmeier-bekommt-fuer-iran-krieg-aeusserung-lob-aus-teheran-und-von-der-afd-a-67d5ce17-25c1-4dac-9105-2a0376e9a9ae\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Yurt i\u00e7inde ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda siyasi tepkiler<\/strong><\/a>. Steinmeier \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u201euluslararas\u0131 hukuka ayk\u0131r\u0131\u201c olarak nitelendirirken, bu konuda hem Tahran'dan hem de AfD'den destek ald\u0131 - nadir ve siyasi a\u00e7\u0131dan dikkate de\u011fer bir birliktelik. Ayn\u0131 zamanda bu tutumu Alman siyaseti i\u00e7inde, \u00f6zellikle de kendisini rol\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fmakla su\u00e7layan CDU\/CSU taraf\u0131ndan ele\u015ftirildi. Tart\u0131\u015fma, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesinden ziyade, bir Federal Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politika pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde form\u00fcle etmesi gerekti\u011fi sorusu \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. Steinmeier'in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, \u0130ran ihtilaf\u0131n\u0131n Almanya'daki i\u00e7 siyasi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 da ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde \u015fekillendirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>24.03.2026<\/strong>Almanya Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Frank-Walter Steinmeier, ABD ve \u0130srail'in \u0130ran'a kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sava\u015f\u0131 al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k bir a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131kla ele\u015ftirdi ve bunu \u201euluslararas\u0131 hukuka ayk\u0131r\u0131\u201c olarak niteledi. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131'n\u0131n 75. kurulu\u015f y\u0131ld\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fc m\u00fcnasebetiyle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada bu de\u011ferlendirmeye ili\u015fkin \u201e\u00e7ok az \u015f\u00fcphe\u201c oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Steinmeier b\u00f6ylece \u015fimdiye kadar bu t\u00fcr bir kategorizasyondan ka\u00e7\u0131nan Alman h\u00fck\u00fcmetinden \u00e7ok daha keskin bir ton kulland\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u201esiyasi a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl bir hata\u201c olarak nitelendirdi ve \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer bomba yapmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek gibi askeri hedeflere ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131p ula\u015f\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_ODRJmAMeFNM\"><div id=\"lyte_ODRJmAMeFNM\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FODRJmAMeFNM%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/ODRJmAMeFNM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FODRJmAMeFNM%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\nAlmanya Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Steinmeier ABD ve \u0130srail'in \u0130ran'a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u201euluslararas\u0131 hukuka ayk\u0131r\u0131\u201c olarak nitelendirdi | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@zeit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ZAMAN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Steinmeier ayr\u0131ca 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kla sonu\u00e7lanan n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmaya da at\u0131fta bulunarak bunun diplomasi i\u00e7in daha istikrarl\u0131 bir zemin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Steinmeier'in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 siyasi s\u00f6ylemde kayda de\u011fer bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret etmekte ve Bat\u0131 d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda artan gerilimleri vurgulamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>23.03.2026<\/strong>: Bir ak\u0131m <a href=\"https:\/\/www.handelsblatt.com\/politik\/international\/iran-krieg-iran-kontert-trumps-ultimatum-maerkte-reagieren-nervoes\/100210758.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Handelsblatt'\u0131n raporu<\/strong><\/a> \u0130ran anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki gerilimin ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde t\u0131rmanmaya devam etti\u011fini ve mali piyasalar\u0131 giderek daha fazla tedirgin etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump'\u0131n Tahran'\u0131 stratejik \u00f6neme sahip H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131'n\u0131 a\u00e7maya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ran ve ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran'\u0131n enerji tesislerine sald\u0131rmakla tehdit eden \u00fcltimatomu gerilimin ana tetikleyicisi oldu. \u0130ran buna kar\u015f\u0131 tehditlerle yan\u0131t verdi ve bo\u011faz\u0131n tamamen abluka alt\u0131na al\u0131nabilece\u011fi ihtimalini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. K\u00fcresel petrol ticaretinin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 bu g\u00fczergahtan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi i\u00e7in bu durum k\u00fcresel ekonomiye b\u00fcy\u00fck bir darbe olacakt\u0131r. Piyasalar da buna uygun olarak gergin bir tepki veriyor: enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor, borsalar bask\u0131 alt\u0131na giriyor ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar gerilimin daha da t\u0131rmanmas\u0131ndan korkuyor. Genel olarak, siyasi kararlar\u0131n an\u0131nda ekonomik sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furdu\u011fu son derece dinamik bir durum izlenimi var.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran'daki gerilimin Avrupa, \u00f6zellikle de \u0130svi\u00e7re savunma politikas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisi giderek art\u0131yor. Bern'deki h\u00fck\u00fcmet \u015fimdilik \u015fu karar\u0131 ald\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/de.euronews.com\/2026\/03\/21\/iran-schweiz-waffenlieferung-usa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>ABD'ye silah tedarikini durdurmak i\u00e7in<\/strong><\/a>, \u0130ran ile olan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahil olduklar\u0131 i\u00e7in. Bunun arka plan\u0131nda \u0130svi\u00e7re'nin sava\u015fan devletlere sava\u015f malzemesi ihracat\u0131n\u0131 yasaklayan kat\u0131 tarafs\u0131zl\u0131k \u015fart\u0131 yatmaktad\u0131r. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Ignazio Cassis ayn\u0131 zamanda bu karar\u0131n siyasi bir de\u011ferlendirme de\u011fil, yasal bir zorunluluk oldu\u011funu vurguluyor. Ancak bu hamlenin, ABD'nin daha \u00f6nce en \u00f6nemli m\u00fc\u015fterilerinden biri oldu\u011fu \u0130svi\u00e7re savunma sanayii i\u00e7in somut sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. \u015eirketler \u015fimdiden ekonomik kay\u0131plar ve \u00fcretimin olas\u0131 yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmeleri konusunda uyar\u0131larda bulunuyor. Genel olarak bu karar, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n art\u0131k dolayl\u0131 olarak Avrupa \u00fclkelerini de ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkiledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>20.03.2026<\/strong>: Orta Do\u011fu'da s\u00fcregelen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar giderek daha fazla <a href=\"https:\/\/www.heise.de\/news\/Bericht-Iran-Krieg-gefaehrdet-allmaehlich-auch-Halbleiterproduktion-11214548.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>k\u00fcresel yari i\u0307letken end\u00fcstri\u0307si\u0307<\/strong><\/a>. Ana tetikleyiciler, kilit hammaddelerin ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131'n\u0131n ablukaya al\u0131nmas\u0131 gibi \u00f6nemli tedarik zincirlerinde ya\u015fanan aksakl\u0131klard\u0131r. \u00c7ip \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in gerekli olan s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz ve helyum tedariki \u00f6zellikle kritik \u00f6neme sahiptir. Tayvan gibi \u00fclkeler, b\u00f6lgeden enerji ithalat\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olduklar\u0131ndan, sonu\u00e7 olarak bask\u0131 alt\u0131na giriyorlar. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, gofretlerin k\u00fcresel nakliyesinde \u00f6nemli bir rol oynayan Dubai gibi lojistik merkezler de etkileniyor. Uzmanlar, \u00f6zellikle yapay zeka alan\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek talep nedeniyle \u00e7ip piyasas\u0131nda zaten gergin olan durumun daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015febilece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>19.03.2026<\/strong>Avusturya gazetesi Kronen Zeitung'a ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir m\u00fclakat veren \u0130ran B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi, mevcut durumun net ve kararl\u0131 bir resmini \u00e7iziyor. Tahran'\u0131n bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re bu k\u0131sa vadeli bir t\u0131rmanma de\u011fil, siyasi ve askeri olarak haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu uzun vadeli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmad\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i, kendisine g\u00f6re haks\u0131z olan ve tekrarlanan sald\u0131r\u0131lardan bahsediyor ve \u0130ran'\u0131n tepkilerini uluslararas\u0131 hukuk \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurguluyor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_FHXUMClAS2o\"><div id=\"lyte_FHXUMClAS2o\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FFHXUMClAS2o%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/FHXUMClAS2o\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FFHXUMClAS2o%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><br \/>\n\u0130ran B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi: \u201e\u0130ran uzun bir sava\u015fa haz\u0131r\u201c | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@kronetv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Kronen Zeitung<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 zamanda Tahran'daki liderli\u011fin h\u0131zl\u0131 bir son beklemedi\u011fi, stratejik olarak daha uzun bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 da anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu r\u00f6portaj \u0130ran'\u0131n resmi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne nadiren do\u011frudan bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 sunmakta ve \u00f6nceki haberlere merkezi bir perspektif katmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>15.03.2026<\/strong>: K\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce yap\u0131lan bir r\u00f6portajda <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WELTVideoTV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">WELT haber kanal\u0131<\/a> Alman Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri'nin eski korgenerali (emekli) Roland Kather, Orta Do\u011fu'daki durumla ilgili olarak \u015fu anda bir\u00e7ok siyasi a\u00e7\u0131klamada duyulandan \u00e7ok daha \u015f\u00fcpheci bir tablo \u00e7iziyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump \u015fimdiden ba\u015far\u0131lardan bahsederken, Kather tehlikeli bir t\u0131rmanma dinami\u011fi ve stratejik olarak belirsiz bir Bat\u0131 politikas\u0131 \u00e7izgisi konusunda uyar\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131'na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir abluka tehdidinin k\u00fcresel ticaret \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir etkisi olabilir.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_95NbeSC6dOE\"><div id=\"lyte_95NbeSC6dOE\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F95NbeSC6dOE%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/95NbeSC6dOE\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F95NbeSC6dOE%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck resmi\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Bu videoyu YouTube'da izleyin<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><\/p>\n<p>General ayn\u0131 zamanda Alman donanmas\u0131 gibi Avrupa'n\u0131n askeri zay\u0131fl\u0131klar\u0131na ve Ukrayna'n\u0131n drone sava\u015f\u0131ndaki uzmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma alan\u0131ndaki yeni dinamiklere de i\u015faret ediyor. Genel izlenim, Bat\u0131'n\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik stratejisinin giderek daha geli\u015fig\u00fczel bir hal ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130ran ve ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n ise askeri a\u00e7\u0131dan beklenenden daha diren\u00e7li oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n<p><strong>12.03.2026<\/strong>: \u0130ran'\u0131n yeni dini lideri ve devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131 Modshaba Khamenei, sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez kamuoyu \u00f6n\u00fcnde konu\u015ftu ve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=7ngCtMmfU70\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>ABD ve \u0130srail'e kar\u015f\u0131 sert tutum ilan edildi<\/strong><\/a>. Devlet televizyonunda yay\u0131nlanan bir mesajda 56 ya\u015f\u0131ndaki din adam\u0131, hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kurbanlar\u0131 i\u00e7in intikam \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu ve kararl\u0131 bir yan\u0131t verilmesi gerekti\u011finden bahsetti. \u00d6zellikle de \u0130ran kaynaklar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00e7ok say\u0131da k\u0131z \u00f6\u011frencinin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya at\u0131fta bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran y\u00f6netimi ayn\u0131 zamanda b\u00f6lgedeki ABD askeri \u00fcsleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmaya ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gibi stratejik manivelalar\u0131 kullanmaya devam edece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Yeni Ayetullah'\u0131n ilk a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, Tahran'\u0131n ciddi sald\u0131r\u0131lara ra\u011fmen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131 stratejisine sad\u0131k kalmaya niyetli oldu\u011funun bir i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>09.03.2026<\/strong>: \u0130ran ve \u0130srail aras\u0131nda t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada durum bir kez daha gerginle\u015fti. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zeit.de\/politik\/ausland\/2026-03\/iran-krieg-usa-israel-bahrain-katar-ueberblick-gxe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>dramatik bir \u015fekilde keskinle\u015fti<\/strong><\/a>. Bas\u0131nda yer alan \u00e7e\u015fitli haberlere g\u00f6re, bir \u00f6nceki \u0130ran liderinin bir f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131nda hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesinin ard\u0131ndan, o\u011flu Mod\u015ftaba Hamaney \u00fclkenin yeni lideri olarak se\u00e7ildi. Kendisi \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 \u00e7evresinden gelen kat\u0131 bir sertlik yanl\u0131s\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ailesine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131da babas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra e\u015fi ve ailesinin di\u011fer \u00fcyeleri de \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. \u0130ktidara gelmesinden k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra b\u00fcy\u00fck bir t\u0131rmanma daha ya\u015fand\u0131: \u0130ran, mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana \u0130srail'e y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131. \u0130srail de b\u00f6lgedeki \u0130ran hedeflerine kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131larla cevap verdi.<\/p>\n<p>Paralel b\u00fcy\u00fcme <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wallstreet-online.de\/nachricht\/20560170-strasse-hormus-dicht-sorgt-iran-krieg-globale-rezession\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Wallstreet Online'a g\u00f6re<\/strong><\/a> D\u00fcnya genelinde ekonomik sonu\u00e7lardan endi\u015fe duyuluyor. G\u00f6zlemciler, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n stratejik \u00f6neme sahip H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131'ndaki gemi trafi\u011fini tehlikeye atabilece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel petrol ticaretinin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc bu bo\u011faz \u00fczerinden ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor. Deniz yolunun kapanmas\u0131 halinde artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve ticaretteki aksamalar k\u00fcresel ekonomik yava\u015flamay\u0131, hatta resesyonu tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>06.03.2026<\/strong>: ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda t\u0131rmanan anla\u015fmazl\u0131kta ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump sert bir talepte bulundu. Gazetede yer alan habere g\u00f6re <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sueddeutsche.de\/politik\/iran-krieg-liveblog-us-militaer-iranische-flotte-persischer-golf-li.3395676\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>S\u00fcddeutsche Zeitung'un canl\u0131 blogu<\/strong><\/a> Trump, Truth Social platformunda Tahran ile bir anla\u015fman\u0131n \u015fu anda kendisi i\u00e7in s\u00f6z konusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Bunun yerine, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n bir sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yor. <strong>\u201e\u0130ran'\u0131n \u201cko\u015fulsuz teslimiyeti\"<\/strong> bir sona g\u00f6t\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in. Washington b\u00f6ylece a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6ylemini y\u00fckseltiyor ve devam eden askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada sert bir \u00e7izgi izleyece\u011finin sinyallerini veriyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda uluslararas\u0131 medya da b\u00f6lgede yeni askeri operasyonlar yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve gerilimin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiriyor. G\u00f6zlemciler bunu olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, diplomatik giri\u015fimler \u015fu ana kadar \u00e7ok az ilerleme kaydetti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>04.03.2026<\/strong>: S\u00fcddeutsche Zeitung olarak <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sueddeutsche.de\/politik\/iran-krieg-liveblog-us-militaer-iranische-flotte-persischer-golf-li.3395676\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>bir canl\u0131 blogda bildirildi<\/strong><\/a>, ABD ordusu Basra K\u00f6rfezi'nde \u0130ran donanmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc etkisiz hale getirdi\u011fini bildirdi. ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), Amerikan g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin aralar\u0131nda bir denizalt\u0131n\u0131n da bulundu\u011fu 17 \u0130ran sava\u015f gemisini imha etti\u011fini ve e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak \u0130ran'daki yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.000 hedefe sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Komutanl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re operasyonun amac\u0131 \u0130ran'\u0131n stratejik \u00f6neme sahip H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131'n\u0131 kapatma kabiliyetini etkisiz hale getirmekti. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutan\u0131, \u015fu anda Basra K\u00f6rfezi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ya da Umman K\u00f6rfezi'nde faaliyet g\u00f6steren hi\u00e7bir \u0130ran gemisinin bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Bu bilgi ABD askeri kaynaklar\u0131ndan al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ve \u015fu anda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak do\u011frulanamamaktad\u0131r. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli enerji nakil yollar\u0131ndan biri olarak kabul edilmektedir: k\u00fcresel petrol ve LNG ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri \u0130ran ve Umman aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fczergahtan ge\u00e7mektedir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>01.03.2026<\/strong>: \u0130ran'\u0131n ruhani lideri <a href=\"https:\/\/www.n-tv.de\/politik\/Ali-Chamenei-ist-tot-auch-enge-Verwandte-nicht-mehr-am-Leben-id30417273.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Ayetullah Ali Hamaney \u00f6ld\u00fc<\/strong><\/a> - Bu haber, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump'\u0131n daha \u00f6nce yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamadan birka\u00e7 saat sonra \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan do\u011fruland\u0131. \u0130ran'dan gelen haberlere g\u00f6re, 86 ya\u015f\u0131ndaki Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 ABD ve \u0130srail'in a\u011f\u0131r hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti ve 40 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ulusal yas ilan edildi. Bas\u0131nda yer alan haberlere g\u00f6re, aralar\u0131nda k\u0131z\u0131 ve torununun da bulundu\u011fu yak\u0131n aile \u00fcyeleri de sald\u0131r\u0131larda hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 misilleme yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klarken, Trump Hamaney'in \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran halk\u0131 i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak nitelendirdi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>28.02.2026<\/strong>: 28 \u015eubat 2026'da \u0130srail, ABD ile birlikte \u0130ran'daki hedeflere askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenleyerek uzun s\u00fcredir devam eden Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yeni ve tehlikeli bir a\u015famaya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wiwo.de\/politik\/ausland\/nahostkonflikt-israel-startet-angriff-auf-iran-mit-unterstuetzung-der-usa\/100204271.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Wirtschaftswoche'de yer alan bir habere g\u00f6re <\/strong><\/a>\u0130ran tesisleri hedef al\u0131n\u0131rken, \u015fehrin \u00fczerinde duman bulutlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ve Tahran'da patlamalar kaydedildi. Sald\u0131r\u0131, \u0130ran'\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 konusundaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131kta \u00f6nemli bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor ve \u0130srail, ABD ve Tahran aras\u0131nda aylard\u0131r s\u00fcren gerginli\u011fin ard\u0131ndan geldi. \u0130ran y\u00f6netimi misilleme tehdidinde bulunurken, uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6zlemciler durumun daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesinden endi\u015fe ediyor.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"display-post-types\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">\n\t\t\t#dpt-wrapper-710 { --dpt-text-align: left;--dpt-image-crop: center;--dpt-border-radius: 5px;--dpt-h-gutter: 10px;--dpt-v-gutter: 9px; }\t\t\t<\/style>\n\t\t\t<style type=\"text\/css\">#dpt-wrapper-710 { --dpt-title-font-style:normal;--dpt-title-font-weight:600;--dpt-title-line-height:1.5;--dpt-title-text-decoration:none;--dpt-title-text-transform:none;--dpt-excerpt-font-style:normal;--dpt-excerpt-font-weight:400;--dpt-excerpt-line-height:1.5;--dpt-excerpt-text-decoration:none;--dpt-excerpt-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta1-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta1-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta1-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta1-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta1-text-transform:none;--dpt-meta2-font-style:normal;--dpt-meta2-font-weight:400;--dpt-meta2-line-height:1.9;--dpt-meta2-text-decoration:none;--dpt-meta2-text-transform:none; }<\/style><div class=\"dpt-main-header\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-main-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dpt-main-title-text\">Yapay zeka \u00fczerine g\u00fcncel makaleler<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div id=\"dpt-wrapper-710\" class=\"dpt-wrapper dpt-mag1 land1 dpt-cropped dpt-flex-wrap\" >\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"wenn der mac zuh\u00f6rt: was apples integrierte ki mit gemini und siri k\u00fcnftig f\u00fcr nutzer bedeutet\" data-id=\"4813\"  data-category=\"apple iphone &amp; ipad apple macos ki-systeme\" data-post_tag=\"apple datenlogik datenschutz k\u00fcnstliche intelligenz llm mac prozesse sprachmodell\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/mac-applein-gemini-ve-siri-i%cc%87le-entegre-kini%cc%87n-gelecekte-kullanicilar-i%cc%87ci%cc%87n-ne-anlama-gelecegi%cc%87ni%cc%87-di%cc%87nlerse\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Mac dinledi\u011finde: Apple'nin Gemini ve Siri ile entegre yapay zekas\u0131 gelecekte kullan\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in ne anlama gelecek?<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Apple, Siri ve Gemini\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Apple-Siri-Gemini.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Apple-Siri-Gemini.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Apple-Siri-Gemini-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Apple-Siri-Gemini-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/Apple-Siri-Gemini-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/02\/mac-applein-gemini-ve-siri-i%cc%87le-entegre-kini%cc%87n-gelecekte-kullanicilar-i%cc%87ci%cc%87n-ne-anlama-gelecegi%cc%87ni%cc%87-di%cc%87nlerse\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Mac dinledi\u011finde: Apple'nin Gemini ve Siri ile entegre yapay zekas\u0131 gelecekte kullan\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in ne anlama gelecek?<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"mlx auf apple silicon als lokale ki im vergleich mit ollama &#038; co.\" data-id=\"2857\"  data-category=\"apple macos ki-systeme\" data-post_tag=\"datenschutz k\u00fcnstliche intelligenz llama llm mistral mlx ollama sprachmodell\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/09\/yerel-ki-olarak-elma-si%cc%87li%cc%87kon-uezeri%cc%87ndeki%cc%87-mlx-ollama-co-i%cc%87le-karsilastirildi\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Ollama &amp; Co. ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yerel AI olarak Apple Silicon \u00fczerinde MLX.<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"MLX ile Mac&#039;te Yerel Yapay Zeka\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/mlx-lokale-ki-apple-silicon.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/mlx-lokale-ki-apple-silicon.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/mlx-lokale-ki-apple-silicon-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/mlx-lokale-ki-apple-silicon-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/mlx-lokale-ki-apple-silicon-18x10.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/09\/yerel-ki-olarak-elma-si%cc%87li%cc%87kon-uezeri%cc%87ndeki%cc%87-mlx-ollama-co-i%cc%87le-karsilastirildi\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Ollama &amp; Co. ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yerel AI olarak Apple Silicon \u00fczerinde MLX.<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"vom chatgpt-datenexport zur eigenen wissens-ki: schritt-f\u00fcr-schritt mit ollama und qdrant\" data-id=\"5306\"  data-category=\"apple macos ki-systeme tipps &amp; anleitungen\" data-post_tag=\"datenbanken denkmodelle digitales eigentum docker k\u00fcnstliche intelligenz llama llm mlx ollama prozesse sprachmodell\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/ollama-ve-qdrant-i%cc%87le-chatgpt-veri%cc%87-i%cc%87hracatindan-kendi%cc%87-bi%cc%87lgi%cc%87-ki%cc%87ni%cc%87ze-adim-adim\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">ChatGPT veri aktar\u0131m\u0131ndan kendi bilgi yapay zekan\u0131za: Ollama ve Qdrant ile ad\u0131m ad\u0131m<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Kendi yapay zeka belle\u011finize giden yol\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/ChatGPT-Datenexport-Computerhirn.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/ChatGPT-Datenexport-Computerhirn.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/ChatGPT-Datenexport-Computerhirn-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/ChatGPT-Datenexport-Computerhirn-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/ChatGPT-Datenexport-Computerhirn-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2026\/03\/ollama-ve-qdrant-i%cc%87le-chatgpt-veri%cc%87-i%cc%87hracatindan-kendi%cc%87-bi%cc%87lgi%cc%87-ki%cc%87ni%cc%87ze-adim-adim\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">ChatGPT veri aktar\u0131m\u0131ndan kendi bilgi yapay zekan\u0131za: Ollama ve Qdrant ile ad\u0131m ad\u0131m<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry has-thumbnail\" data-title=\"unsterblichkeit durch technik: wie weit forschung und ki wirklich sind\" data-id=\"3624\"  data-category=\"allgemein gesellschaft ki-systeme\" data-post_tag=\"denkmodelle k\u00fcnstliche intelligenz lernen llm prozesse sprachmodell\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"dpt-entry-wrapper\"><div class=\"dpt-featured-content\"><div class=\"dpt-permalink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/11\/teknoloji%cc%87-yoluyla-oeluemsuezluek-arastirma-ve-ki%cc%87ni%cc%87n-gercekte-ne-kadar-uzakta-oldugu\/\" class=\"dpt-permalink\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Teknoloji yoluyla \u00f6l\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fck: Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve yapay zeka ger\u00e7ekten ne kadar ilerledi<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail\"><div class=\"dpt-thumbnail-inner\"><img width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"Dijital \u00f6l\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fck\" context=\"dpt\" data-dpt-src=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/digitale-unsterblichkeit.jpg\" data-dpt-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-dpt-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/digitale-unsterblichkeit.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/digitale-unsterblichkeit-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/digitale-unsterblichkeit-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/digitale-unsterblichkeit-18x12.jpg 18w\" \/><\/div><span class=\"dpt-thumbnail-aspect-ratio\" style=\"padding-top: 75%\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sub-entry\"><h3 class=\"dpt-title\"><a class=\"dpt-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/11\/teknoloji%cc%87-yoluyla-oeluemsuezluek-arastirma-ve-ki%cc%87ni%cc%87n-gercekte-ne-kadar-uzakta-oldugu\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Teknoloji yoluyla \u00f6l\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fck: Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve yapay zeka ger\u00e7ekten ne kadar ilerledi<\/a><\/h3><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div><!-- .dpt-entry -->\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n<hr \/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Es gibt Momente in der Geschichte, in denen man sp\u00fcrt, dass sich etwas verschiebt. Nicht schlagartig, nicht mit einer einzigen Entscheidung, sondern wie eine Linie, die langsam, aber unaufhaltsam durch den Staub alter Gewissheiten zieht. Die vergangenen Tage geh\u00f6ren zu solchen Momenten. Ich habe mich lange gefragt, ob ich diesen Leitartikel wirklich schreiben soll \u2013 &#8230; <a title=\"Teknoloji yoluyla \u00f6l\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fck: Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve yapay zeka ger\u00e7ekten ne kadar ilerledi\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/2025\/11\/teknoloji%cc%87-yoluyla-oeluemsuezluek-arastirma-ve-ki%cc%87ni%cc%87n-gercekte-ne-kadar-uzakta-oldugu\/\" aria-label=\"Teknoloji yoluyla \u00f6l\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fck: ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve yapay zeka ger\u00e7ekten ne kadar ilerledi hakk\u0131nda devam\u0131n\u0131 oku\">Devam\u0131n\u0131 oku<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5217,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":396,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,466],"tags":[444,481,475,482,426,471,476,484,478],"class_list":["post-5212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-allgemein","category-gesellschaft","tag-denkmodelle","tag-energiepolitik","tag-europa","tag-geopolitik","tag-krisen","tag-kuenstliche-intelligenz","tag-meinungsfreiheit","tag-sicherheitspolitik","tag-spieltheorie"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5212"}],"version-history":[{"count":66,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5212\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5998,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5212\/revisions\/5998"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5217"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markus-schall.de\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}